The India Climate Observatory

Commentary, action and research on climate and development in India

International Climate Negotiations

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India and International Climate Negotiations

India ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1993, and the Kyoto Protocol in 2002. Under the UNFCCC, all countries agreed that climate change is a serious problem that needs to be addressed and that they will work together to regulate emissions.

Under the Convention, India (and other developing countries), has not had to undertake legally-binding commitments to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, since the major proportion of the problem (and historical responsibility) was due to emissoins from developed countries. As a result, the Kyoto Protocol places the burden of emissions reductions on 37 ‘Annex 1’ countries (developed countries and countries in transition). This listing of Annex 1 countries excludes the United States, which did not agree to emissions reductions under the Kyoto Protocol.

Under the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, countries such as India are exempt from mandatory emissions reductions due to their small historical contribution to atmospheric GHG emissions, their low per-capita emissions, and modest financial and technical ability to switch to low-carbon growth without external aid (from developing countries).

With increasing industrialisation over the course of the past few decades by major emerging economies such as India, China, Brazil, South Africa, Russia and Indonesia, and increasing global emissions, the political equilibrium evident at Kyoto has been challenged. Annex 1 countries (since it excluded the US) now only account for a third of global emissions and new groupings have emerged such as the Major Economies Forum convened by the United States. The MEF has been meeting regularly since 2008 and comprises 17 countries – including all the major emerging economies such as India – which collectively account for eighty percent of global emissions. It is estimated that the majority of future emissions will come from these emerging economies.

At the United Nations climate negotiations, India has historically aligned with the G77 and China, a group of 134 countries of which it is a member. The G77 & China group negotiates as a block but increasingly contains within it significant smaller blocs such as the Africa Group, the Least Developed Countries (LDC) group, the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) and others who are articulating their own positions.

Of these, the largest bloc is the LDC bloc (100+ countries), and arguably the most active progressing grouping is the AOSIS. Both the LDCs and AOSIS countries are calling for global temperature rise to be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius to ensure the survival of island nations and vulnerable countries. This position is not shared by the Government of India which cleaves to the conventional 2 degrees limit mentioned in the Copenhagen Accord and the G8/ G20 declaration of 2009. Since November 2009, India has aligned with the three other major developing countries – Brazil, China and South Africa (the BASIC group) – who are increasingly coordinating their positions at international climate change fora.

The Government of India admits that climate change is a global issue that needs to be addressed by the international community on a priority basis. However, India’s approach to the international climate change negotiations has been to keep firmly behind the ‘historical responsibility’ and ‘common but differentiated responsibility’ positions. So India’s policy remains that while it may choose to take on domestic actions in its own self-interest, it will not take on any international commitments that it will be legally bound to comply with.

However, with the growing realisation that India’s stance appears backward and defensive in the face of acknowledged global climate change threats, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has permitted a greater opening and acceptance that the government must embrace a more proactive climate agenda.

For example, in the run-up to the UN Climate Summit (COP15) in Copenhagen in December 2009 which attracted more than 110 heads of state, India sought to be seen as a ‘deal-maker’, with the Prime Minister signing a Major Economies Forum (MEF) political commitment to keep warming below 2 degrees C. Just prior to COP15 in December 2009, India announced that it would agree to voluntarily cut domestic ’emissions intensity’ by 20 to 25% by 2020.

An official GoI letter said: ‘India endeavors to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 20-25% by 2020 in comparison to the 2005 level’. While details on how the emission cuts are to be achieved are yet to come out, it is possible that the mitigation benefits of each National Mission of the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) will contribute to this effort.

India’s position on climate change

The Government of India’s historical position is that as a developing country, it is not responsible for past greenhouse gas emissions and any solution to climate change must take the issue of equity into account. The GoI says that India is willing to do its ‘fair share’, apportioned by country-wise historical contributions.

India has historically had low per-capita emission rates, and has often used the argument that every human being has an equal right to the atmosphere – per capita entitlements to the global atmospheric space. However, this argument is seen as a ‘right to pollute’ and has not gone down well with either industrialised countries or vulnerable countries most at risk of climate change.

In absolute terms, India is now the fourth largest emitter of greenhouse gases, with just under five percent of the global share of emissions. Since taking office in May 2009, the Minister for Environment and Forests, Jairam Ramesh, has sought to pursue a more proactive role in international climate negotiations and engaged in lively debates in Parliament on the issue.

At the UN climate negotiations, however, India has laid out its three ‘red lines’ – positions that it will not go beyond:

  1. No legally binding emission cuts (therefore still in keeping with Kyoto and UNFCCC requirements)
  2. No ‘peaking’ year for emission levels
  3. No international monitoring and review of voluntary domestic actions.

National climate change programmes

In June 2008, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh released India’s first National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC). The NAPCC is a 52-page outline of how the country seeks to address domestic mitigation and adaption action. It presents policies (existing and future) and eight ‘Missions’ that will address developmental challenges and alleviate climate change at the same time. All actions undertaken through the NAPCC are domestic and not under the purview of any legally binding regimes.

The eight ‘Misisons’ are divided equally between mitigation and adaptation, and “identify measures that promote development objectives while also yielding co-benefits for addressing climate change effectively”.

So far however, only the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission, launched in January 2010, has received a budgetary allocation for the first phase, and amounting to Rs.4,337 crore ($900 million). The JNNSM eventually aims to install 20,000 MW of solar power by 2022. A plan under this mission is the Bureau of Energy Efficiency’s (BEE) plan to have 60 solar cities in India by the end of the 11th 5-Year Plan.

The National Mission on Enhanced Energy Efficiency (NMEEE), the second flagship mission of the NAPCC, aims at implementing a host of programmes that will tackle energy efficiency in the industry and power sectors largely.  While full details of the mission are not available, it has been approved by cabinet, and has received a budgetary allocation of Rs. 253.35 Crore for the initial phase. 

A draft documents of the ‘Green India Mission’ is ready, and the Ministry of Environment and Forests has projected a total cost of Rs. 44,000 Crore over a period of ten years, starting 2012. 

The Naitional Water Mission and the Sustainable Habitat Mission have been approved by the Prime Minister, but few other details are available on the same.

Some Indian states – including the Himalayan States, Gujarat, Kerala and New Delhi have been proactive in addressing climate change and capitalising on the potential for cleaner energy. New Delhi has launched a climate change action plan modeled closely on the NAPCC, running through 2012, and building greener infrastructure for the Commonwealth Games, for which New Delhi is the host city. Kerala has announced a Rs. 1000 Crore green fund to be used over the next five years, and a Rs 55 Crore scheme that will reach CFL bulbs to 75 lakh households across the state.Orissa has announced a Rs. 5000 Crore project to electrify 3000 remote villages using solar energy. Tripura the capital of Manipur has announced it will be the first CNG and green city by 2013. 191 villages in Jammu and Kashmir are to get solar electricity at the cost of Rs. 54 Crore.

However, what is still lacking is a national climate change strategy, which is reported to be in the making, and likely to be ready by 2012.

For more information:
India Climate Watch
India – Emerging Leadership on Climate Change, Dec 2008
India starts to take on climate change – State of the World 2009

India and Climate Change

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Introduction


India is a large developing country of sub-continental proportions – home to 1.1 billion people or 17 percent of the world’s population. A large proportion of this population continues to live in rural areas and depends heavily on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, fisheries and forestry for its livelihood2. With rapid economic growth, however, the demand for goods, services and energy has soared and large shortfalls are emerging. The government estimates that the rate of growth of energy demand will be 5.2 percent each year if it is to provide energy to all citizens.

It is said that India is a rich country with a lot of poor people.  The paradox of India is evident in her contradictions. She has the largest number of poor people in the world, with 45% of children malnourished, and yet has more billionaires than Japan4 and a burgeoning middle class aspiring to western consumption standards. The country has advanced space and nuclear programmes, the world’s fifth largest navy3, and is a world leader in a range of technologies from electric vehicles to solar power. And yet, more than sixty years after Independence, official estimates suggest that anything from 400 to 600 million Indians still do not have access to basic electricity.

Public policy on climate change officially therefore continues to be guided by the need to eradicate poverty and develop economically. The Government of India maintains that “the most important adaptation measure to climate change is development itself”8. This approach can be seen in the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) which seeks to promote development objectives that yield ‘co-benefits’ that address climate change but are not solely aimed at mitigation or reducing emissions.

Economy and emissions

India is now the third largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world10 after China and the United States. Its per capita emissions are low, however, given the size of the population and account for one-tenth the global average. As an industrializing nation, India’s emissions have risen in the past few decades. Over the period 1994 to 2007, India’s emissions nearly doubled2  and have continued to grow since.

The economic reforms of the 1990s put India on its growth path and the country began to achieve high growth rates of over 7 percent per year. India is now the fifth largest economy in the world in terms of GDP (purchasing power parity) at US$ 3.56 trillion in 20099. Its ranking on the United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development Index however is dismal – India ranked 138 out of 180 on the list in 2008 – indicative of the massive strides yet to be taken on the development front.

Vulnerable land, vulnerable billion

India’s geography and climate are as varied as the country. The Himalayas mark the northern boundaries, the Thar Desert the Western, a 7500 km densely populated coastline along the peninsula, and a heavily monsoon-dependent economy, all make India vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

The future predicted impacts of climate change (IPCC 2004 report) include a decrease in snow cover in the Himalayas, erratic monsoons, rising sea levels and an increase in the frequency and intensity of floods2. There is already evidence of prominent increase in the intensity and/or frequency of extreme weather events across Asia11.

Such impacts are likely to reduce the availability of fresh water, threaten food security, affect agricultural production and the people dependent on it, adversely impact natural ecosystems and human health, and exacerbate existing coastal zone problems across a densely populated coast line2.

Counting and countering emissions

India emits 1.7 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases each year, as of 200710. Most of the emissions come from a heavy dependence on coal, much of which is used to generate electricity. Energy production, most of which comes from coal, accounts for 61 percent of the country’s emissions, and agriculture accounts for 15 percent emissions2. Despite a growing economy, emissions intensity (GHGs per unit of GDP) has dropped and is 20% lower than the global average.

Future emissions are set to grow rapidly, owing to high economic growth rates and carbon-intensive development. With current development patterns and business-as usual growth, India could be responsible for up to 6 billion tonnes of GHG emissions by 20307, and lock-in carbon-intensive practices in all areas of growth (industry, buildings, transport, and power).

In the mid-term, the Indian government has pledged to cut its carbon intensity by 20 to 25 percent below 2005 levels by 2020. While these efforts are unlikely to bring about a major deviation from business as usual emission trajectories, they are indicative of initial efforts to mitigate climate change by the government.

End Notes

1.       World Bank, 2005
2.       India’s National Communicationsto the UNFCCC, 2004
3.       Indian Navy; GlobalSecurity.org.
4.       Forbes billionaires list 2010
5.       United Nations Statistics Division, 2006
6.       CDIAC 2006
7.       India’s GHG emissions profile: results of five climate modeling studies. MoEF 2009
8.       National Action Plan on Climate Change
9.       CIA Factbook – India
10.     International Energy Agency 2010.
11.     IPCC 2007 report: Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation