The India Climate Observatory

Commentary, action and research on climate and development in India

At Durban Platform, India on historical responsibility

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The point, said India, is not about finance or capabilities alone, but how we tackle the burdens of history. Photo: India Climate Portal / RG

The point, said India, is not about finance or capabilities alone, but how we tackle the burdens of history. Photo: India Climate Portal / RG

A very interesting exchange took place among Parties on how to operationalise equity in the 2015 agreement
under the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action, as reported by the Third World Network news service (‘Operationalising equity in the new agreement’).

India emphasised the importance of the historical responsibility of developed countries in terms of their cumulative emissions (of greenhouse gases) that provide the basic rationale for developed countries to take the lead on mitigation actions and to ensure equity. This was also echoed by China and Kuwait.

India further stressed that equity rejects any notion that ambition levels in the post-2015 period should be decided solely on whether a country has financial resources or not, or on the basis of “respective capabilities”. Many developing countries also emphasised the need for the provision of finance and technology transfer in order to allow them to choose low-carbon development pathways.

China, India and the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) highlighted the importance of pre-2020 action as a foundation for a future agreement that was ambitious and equitable.

India said that although Parties may have different views on equity, the Convention is clear and the outcome in 2015 will be under the Convention. It said that the historical responsibility of developed countries in terms of their cumulative emissions provides the basic rationale for developed countries to take the lead on mitigation actions and ensure equity.

Given the wide gulf in the per capita income and expenditure between developed and developing countries, it is only desirable that the 2015 arrangements must ensure that Annex 1 and Annex II Parties take the lead and shoulder the major burden on climate change.

A binding deal at Cancun – why India must do the right thing – 9 Dec 2010

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A binding deal at Cancun – why India must do the right thing


9 December, 2010

In December 2009, when environment minister Jairam Ramesh went to Copenhagen, he was seen off by a group of bright-eyed young Indian climate activists urging him to come back with a FAB (fair, ambitious and binding) deal. He promised to do so. Fast-forward to December 2010 and the Indian delegation is fighting tooth-and-nail to eviscerate any language on a binding deal at the UN’s climate talks in Cancun.
 
In resisting this, India is in shabby company – countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United States and Japan have been notoriously prevaricating or setting hurdles in the way of internationally binding commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
 
Leading the charge for a legally-binding instrument are the most vulnerable nations on earth – the small island developing states and African countries. United in political blocs such as AOSIS (Alliance of Small Island States) and the Africa Group, these nations are fighting for their very survival in the face of indifference by many major powers – developed and emerging alike.
 
Both AOSIS and the Africa group have managed to organise themselves into effective political forces with strong moral authority as unwitting victims of climate change. In so doing they have lifted the stranglehold of more powerful countries within the G-77 lobby group of developing countries, that had long prevented the concerns of the most vulnerable from surfacing.
 
In recent days, AOSIS and the Africa Group have managed to bring along a range of nations to their cause for a legally binding instrument under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change curbing greenhouse gas emissions. AOSIS has recommended specific language under the Ad-hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action that has been supported by the European Union, Costa Rica and many others. All in all, support for this could run into more than 100 countries.
 
Only India and a small clutch of countries are resisting this move. In this, India has been virtually isolated from others in the BASIC grouping – South Africa, Brazil and China – with whom it has closely allied since last year. These nations are not blocking but are either supporting AOSIS or are open to further dialogue – but not India.
 
India has legitimate concerns in asking for clarity on issues such as the content of legally binding, the penalty of non-compliance and the system of monitoring. But so do others – yet, they are not blocking progress as India is doing because they recognise that some progress on the issue of ‘legal form’ of commitments is a deal-maker issue at this vital meeting.

There is also widespread commitment from most countries supporting the call for a decision to put in place a second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol – the only internationally legally-binding mechanism we have for greenhouse gas reduction. A second commitment period to the Kyoto Protocol is essential. As the Kyoto Protocol only covers 18% of global emissions, however, there is a stand-off between developed and emerging nations as to who should be covered by international emissions controls.

For the most vulnerable countries, this battle between the major emitters can seem academic and that is why they are looking at innovative strategies to close the divide between the main political players.

The environment minister has taken to describing India as ‘the most vulnerable’ country in the world. Yet his rhetoric will cut little ice with vulnerable neighbours such as Bangladesh, Maldives, Nepal and Bhutan who have all called for a legally binding agreement at Cancun.
 
Jairam Ramesh has won a following in India amongst environmentalists for the courage he has shown in the face of vested interests in the mining sector and flown the flag for India’s environmental integrity. He has also made singularly imaginative efforts to advance a more pro-active domestic climate policy in India. For this we salute him.
 
But if India’s old guard of bureaucrats prevent a similarly courageous and imaginative approach being taken at the international policy level, they should know they will receive the opprobrium of young and old Indians alike.

Time is running out and the window of opportunity on climate action is closing. With every day and hour that passes without international agreement, we condemn our poorest and most vulnerable to an uncertain and insecure future.

As Indians, we call on the Minister and our government to do the right thing and join the ranks of those calling for a fair, ambitious and legally-binding agreement at Cancun. The UN cannot afford another failed climate summit and India has it in her power to make a difference. She must make the right choice.

Malini Mehra & Harish Hande
Malini Mehra is founder and chief executive, Centre for Social Markets, and H. Harish Hande, PhD is Managing Director, SELCO SOLAR Light (P) Ltd.

India and Climate Change

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Introduction


India is a large developing country of sub-continental proportions – home to 1.1 billion people or 17 percent of the world’s population. A large proportion of this population continues to live in rural areas and depends heavily on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, fisheries and forestry for its livelihood2. With rapid economic growth, however, the demand for goods, services and energy has soared and large shortfalls are emerging. The government estimates that the rate of growth of energy demand will be 5.2 percent each year if it is to provide energy to all citizens.

It is said that India is a rich country with a lot of poor people.  The paradox of India is evident in her contradictions. She has the largest number of poor people in the world, with 45% of children malnourished, and yet has more billionaires than Japan4 and a burgeoning middle class aspiring to western consumption standards. The country has advanced space and nuclear programmes, the world’s fifth largest navy3, and is a world leader in a range of technologies from electric vehicles to solar power. And yet, more than sixty years after Independence, official estimates suggest that anything from 400 to 600 million Indians still do not have access to basic electricity.

Public policy on climate change officially therefore continues to be guided by the need to eradicate poverty and develop economically. The Government of India maintains that “the most important adaptation measure to climate change is development itself”8. This approach can be seen in the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) which seeks to promote development objectives that yield ‘co-benefits’ that address climate change but are not solely aimed at mitigation or reducing emissions.

Economy and emissions

India is now the third largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world10 after China and the United States. Its per capita emissions are low, however, given the size of the population and account for one-tenth the global average. As an industrializing nation, India’s emissions have risen in the past few decades. Over the period 1994 to 2007, India’s emissions nearly doubled2  and have continued to grow since.

The economic reforms of the 1990s put India on its growth path and the country began to achieve high growth rates of over 7 percent per year. India is now the fifth largest economy in the world in terms of GDP (purchasing power parity) at US$ 3.56 trillion in 20099. Its ranking on the United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development Index however is dismal – India ranked 138 out of 180 on the list in 2008 – indicative of the massive strides yet to be taken on the development front.

Vulnerable land, vulnerable billion

India’s geography and climate are as varied as the country. The Himalayas mark the northern boundaries, the Thar Desert the Western, a 7500 km densely populated coastline along the peninsula, and a heavily monsoon-dependent economy, all make India vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

The future predicted impacts of climate change (IPCC 2004 report) include a decrease in snow cover in the Himalayas, erratic monsoons, rising sea levels and an increase in the frequency and intensity of floods2. There is already evidence of prominent increase in the intensity and/or frequency of extreme weather events across Asia11.

Such impacts are likely to reduce the availability of fresh water, threaten food security, affect agricultural production and the people dependent on it, adversely impact natural ecosystems and human health, and exacerbate existing coastal zone problems across a densely populated coast line2.

Counting and countering emissions

India emits 1.7 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases each year, as of 200710. Most of the emissions come from a heavy dependence on coal, much of which is used to generate electricity. Energy production, most of which comes from coal, accounts for 61 percent of the country’s emissions, and agriculture accounts for 15 percent emissions2. Despite a growing economy, emissions intensity (GHGs per unit of GDP) has dropped and is 20% lower than the global average.

Future emissions are set to grow rapidly, owing to high economic growth rates and carbon-intensive development. With current development patterns and business-as usual growth, India could be responsible for up to 6 billion tonnes of GHG emissions by 20307, and lock-in carbon-intensive practices in all areas of growth (industry, buildings, transport, and power).

In the mid-term, the Indian government has pledged to cut its carbon intensity by 20 to 25 percent below 2005 levels by 2020. While these efforts are unlikely to bring about a major deviation from business as usual emission trajectories, they are indicative of initial efforts to mitigate climate change by the government.

End Notes

1.       World Bank, 2005
2.       India’s National Communicationsto the UNFCCC, 2004
3.       Indian Navy; GlobalSecurity.org.
4.       Forbes billionaires list 2010
5.       United Nations Statistics Division, 2006
6.       CDIAC 2006
7.       India’s GHG emissions profile: results of five climate modeling studies. MoEF 2009
8.       National Action Plan on Climate Change
9.       CIA Factbook – India
10.     International Energy Agency 2010.
11.     IPCC 2007 report: Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation