The India Climate Observatory

Commentary, action and research on climate and development in India

Visualising the December ice-box

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ICP_20160102

Between 10 and 15 December 2015, minimum temperatures all over northern India and Pakistan, in particular in the Hindu Kush and western Himalaya (including the state of Jammu and Kashmir) dropped sharply. The cold and strong north-westerly winds blowing in from the distant Central Asian region during this period of December deepened the persistent chill.

This panel of the 30-day temperature charts for 40 cities shows the sudden dip all experienced from around 10 December. Original charts are from the NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction and reassembled for this panel.

This panel of the 30-day temperature charts for 40 cities shows the sudden dip all experienced from around 10 December. Original charts are from the NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction and reassembled for this panel.

The cold wave was also experienced in the north-western region – including Rajasthan, Gujarat and adjacent north Maharashtra as far south as Mumbai. From 10 December until 27 and 28 December, unusually cold conditions gripped entire agro-ecological regions – the north Gujarat plain together with the Kathiawad peninsula, the Aravalli ranges and the east Rajasthan uplands, the Ganga-Yamuna Doab, Rohilkhand and the Avadah plain, the Madhya Bharat plateau and the Bundelkhand uplands, and the Central (or Malwa) highlands.

These 30-day temperature charts shows the sudden dip in minimum for 40 cities from 9 and 10 December, and the setting in of cold conditions which continued for two weeks thereafter. During this time, the higher reaches of Kashmir Valley received snowfall, New Delhi recorded minimums of around 5 Celsius with the maximums being two to three degrees below normal, Amritsar in Punjab was at 2 Celsius while Ludhiana and Patiala recorded between 4 and 6 Celsius. Churu in Rajasthan recorded a low of 3 Celsius and Mt Abu, at an altitude of 1,200 metres was just below 0 Celsius. State capital Jaipur recorded a minimum 6 Celsius.

Weather shock in Kashmir

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The Valley of Kashmir, satellite image from National Remote Sensing Centre/Bhuvan

The Valley of Kashmir, satellite image from National Remote Sensing Centre/Bhuvan

Snow up to several feet deep descended on most of the valley of Kashmir in the first two weeks of March, whipping up blizzards and triggering avalanches on the steeper mountain slopes. With at least 17 deaths reported, around 2,000 homes damaged, roads blocked and electricity disrupted in many parts of the state, authorities struggled to rescue people in snowbound areas and restore essential services, as reported by The Third Pole.

The damage to agricultural and horticultural property has yet to be reckoned, said officials, and could run into tens of crores of rupees. The airport in the Jammu and Kashmir summer capital Srinagar had to be closed and highways were blocked. The Himalayan state of Jammu and Kashmir receives 30% of its annual rainfall in the winter. The average rainfall, calculated over the winters of 1951 to 2000, is 183 millimetres (mm). This year, the Indian Meteorological Department forecast that Jammu and Kashmir would see below average rainfall for the months of January through March. And then, between March 1-12, the state received 122 mm of rain, far higher than the normal 56 mm.

Several studies indicate that most parts of the Himalayas are getting warmer at a rate faster than the average warming of the earth. Patterns of rain and snow vary throughout the mountains as weather is controlled by dramatic changes in topography and the presence of distinct microclimates in many parts.

A meteorological department official in Srinagar added that the pattern of rainfall and snowfall was erratic while insufficient precipitation also leaves farmers and others worried. Farmers from southern parts of Kashmir reported that more than 80% of almond crop this year had suffered heavy losses due to the damage caused to almond blossoms. Apple growers in the apple rich belts of Shopian and Sopore said that thousands of apple trees had crumbled under the heavy snow, thus ending any hopes of a good crop. “Around 15% of the apple trees have suffered damage due to the heavy snowfall,” Amin Mir, president of the Kashmir Fruit Growers’ Association, told thethirdpole.net.