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How ADB cooks the climate pot

August 21, 2014 by Climate portal editor 1 Comment

The Asian Development Bank has, amongst the world’s multilateral development banks, been a bit of a latecomer to the area of climate financing with the help of modelling. Its senior peers – the World Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development – have been at it for a while, with the World Bank being rather in its own league if one was to judge by the tonnage of reports it has printed. The ADB probably holds its own on the matter against the Inter-American Development Bank and the African Development Bank, but this latest effort, I think, pushes it ahead of the last two.

Not for any reason that would gladden a farmer or a municipal worker, for that is not the audience intended for ‘Assessing the costs of climate change and adaptation in South Asia’ (Asian Development Bank, 2014), which was released to the Asian world a few days ago. But the volume should immensely help the modelling crews from a dozen and more international agencies that specialise in this arcane craft. Providing the scientific basis around which a multilateral lending bank can plan its climate financing strategies will help the craft find a future. Rather less sunny is the outlook for states and districts, cities and panchayats, who may find an over-zealous administrator or two quoting blithely from such a report while in search of elusive ‘mitigation’.

The reassuring shapes of indecipherable models

In my view, this volume is useless. It is so because it is based on a variety of modelling computations which have their origin in the methods used for the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (that was released in 2007). The permanent problem with all such ‘earth science’ modelling approaches is that it uses global data sets which must be ‘downscaled’ to local regions. No matter how sophisticated they are claimed to be by their inventors and sponsors, such models can only work with regular and large sets of well-scrubbed data that have been collected the same way over a long period of time and recorded reliably. This may serve a ‘global’ model (which is irrelevant to us in the districts) but in almost every single case of ‘downscaling’, a scaling down may make a smattering of sense if there is some comparable data relating to the region for which the scaling is taking place. And this correlation, I can assure you, is not possible 99 times out of 100.

But that doesn’t bother the ADB, because it is a bank, it must find a way for Asian countries to agree to taking loans that help them mitigate the effects of rampaging climate change, as this report tries to convince us about. Which is why the ADB has said its unimpeachable analysis is based on “a three-step modeling approach” and this is “(i) regional climate modeling (ii) physical impact assessment, and (iii) economic assessment”, the last aspect being what they’re betting the thermometer on.

The numbers that have emerged from the ADB’s computable general equilibrium model must be satisfyingly enormous to the bank’s thematic project directors and country directors. For the scenario modellers have provided the ammunition for the bank to say: “The region requires funding with the magnitude of 1.3% of GDP on average per annum between 2010 and 2050 under the business-as-usual-1 scenario. The cost could rise to up to 2.3% (upper range) of GDP per annum taking into account climate uncertainties. To avoid climate change impact under the business-as-usual-2 scenario, adaptation cost of around $73 billion per annum on the average is required between now and 2050.”

I could not, in this needlessly dense and poorly written volume, find a mention of which rice strains have been measured for their yields in the example given for India, when the ADB report makes some dire forecasts about how yields will be lowered or will plunge under several forecast conditions. Perhaps they were buried in some footnote I have overlooked, but considering that the International Rice Research Institute (one of the more dangerous CGIAR monster institutes) has in its genebank more than 40,000 varieties from India, and considering that rice conservationist Debal Deb cultivates 920 varieties himself, the ADB (and its modelling troupe) talking about rice ‘yield’ means nothing without telling us which variety in which region. And that sort of negligence naturally leads me to ask what sort of thermometers they consulted while assembling these models.

– Rahul Goswami

At home and abroad

August 18, 2014 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

The size and diversity of India’s federal structure (36 states and union territories) is steering this government towards an arrangement wherein the assessment of development needs and outcomes is carried out at least at the state level. As the new India Climate Watch has pointed out, this is where India’s contribution to the international climate change negotiations appears quite out of phase with the climate aspect of development discussions and actions in these 36 states and union territories.

We ask whether the state action plans on climate change (some of which in their final forms are now several years old) are fit for the task of guiding policy at this level, a serious and urgent question which, in our view, ought to precede India’s taking of international positions on climate change adaptation and mitigation measures (including financing and technology transfer).

With the meeting of the BASIC group of countries on 7-8 August 2014 in New Delhi, a stretch of negotiating has begun for India which will continue with greater intensity until the 21st Conference of Parties in Paris in December 2015. This is seen by climate negotiators as the final stretch of the Kyoto Protocol period and we can expect a flurry of weighty summations to be produced during this time, which may influence how the successor to the Kyoto Protocol will begin to be framed, a procedure that COP 21 will be devoted to.

For India, this period will proceed in parallel with the first term of the NDA government, which will be expected to deliver much more substantial leadership on matters of equity in the international arena, and which is already committed to strengthening the federal approach at home. Our view is that these are not exclusive, and that one can guide the other.

Under direction from the central government, our states have been preparing climate action plans geared to their conditions. The Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change reports that 28 of these plans have been prepared, and how these will integrate with the economic and social imperatives that each state government frames differently has not been explored. Until that happens as a policy commitment, the state action plans remain academic exercises with action on the ground in the form of relatively small projects channelled through ‘technology transfer’ agencies. These may help indicate how feasible a future course is but which is weak without state government and industry resolve. [Click this link for the India Climate Watch 2014 03 (pdf 186kb).]

The IMD’s shaky monsoon math

August 7, 2014 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

Over eight weeks of recorded monsoon rain, the district-level data available with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) portrays a picture that is very different from its ‘national’ and ‘regional’ advice about the strength and consistency of rainfall.

In its first weekly briefing on the monsoon of August 2014, IMD said: “For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year’s monsoon (01 June to 30 July 2014) has so far upto 30 July been 23% below the Long Period Average.” Out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions, said the IMD, the rainfall has been normal over 15 and deficient over 21 sub-divisions.

Readings for each district that has reported rainfall consistently for eight weeks. The columns represent the percentage value of actual rainfall for each district against their normal rainfall for eight weeks.

However, we have compiled a far more realistic reading of the monsoon season so far, from the IMD’s own data. For the 614 individual readings from districts that have regular rainfall readings, we have the following: 86 districts have registered scanty rainfall (-99% to -60%); 281 districts have registered deficient rainfall (-59% to -20%); 200 districts have registered normal rainfall (-19% to +19%); and 47 districts have registered excess rainfall (+20% and more).

Moreover, using our running weekly district-level monsoon meter – the details of which and the reasoning for which you will find in here – we see that there was a substantial dip in the number of districts registering ‘deficient 2’ rainfall, which is less than 21% of the normal and lower, during the seventh week of rain, that is the week of 17 to 23 July. But the general trend returned the following week, 24 to 30 July.

What this means, and the bar chart we have provided to illustrate the 614 individual values leaves us in no doubt, is that 367 out of 614 districts have had meagre rain for eight weeks. This also means that over eight weeks where there should have been rainfall that – as the IMD predicted in early June – would be around 95% of the ‘long period average’, instead three out of five districts have had less than 80% of their usual quota.

Our running weekly district-level monsoon meter to aid governance decisions shows the overall trend has not changed substantially in the last fortnight despite good rains during the seventh monsoon week.

Unfortunately, the press and media – in particular the business and financial media – persist in reporting ‘national’ deficits and whether monsoon 2014 will ‘make up’ the average in the remaining period. This approach must be corrected by the IMD’s departmental divisions as it incorrectly makes popular the notion that total rainfall over a designated number of weeks is the most important monsoon metric (See ‘Why there is no ‘normal’ in our monsoon’). Of course it is not so, as different crops follow their own crop calendars according to the agro-ecological regions they are grown in, and require optimum rain at certain times during their respective crop calendars.

The following examples show why such reporting can be misleading:

From Reuters: “August rains hold the key to India’s major summer crops such as rice, soybean, cane and cotton, after a wet end to July failed to make up fully for a dry start to the four-month monsoon season. A late revival shrank the shortfall in rain to around 10 percent below average in July, the India Meteorological Department’s update showed on Thursday, a sharp improvement from the 43 percent deficit in the first month of the season.”

From Bloomberg: “Monsoon crops are sown from June and harvested from October. The country had less than 40 percent of average rains in the first six weeks of the monsoon season that runs through September. The shortage shrank to 23 percent by end-July. Oilseed planting in India is poised to slump as much as 24 percent to the lowest since 2002 after a weak start to the monsoon.”

From The Hindu: “With the country receiving good rain in July, monsoon deficiency has gone down to 23 percent, the MET department on Friday said. While the monsoon deficiency at the national level in June was 43 per cent, by July end it has come down to 23 per cent. Central India, which saw little rain in June, has by now seen some good rain. It received 402.2 mm of rainfall as compared to expected rainfall of 477.7 mm with a deficiency of 16 per cent, much lesser compared to other parts of the country.”

From Business Standard: “According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the rains managed to recoup much of the June losses due to strong revival over the central and western regions, and parts of northern India. Weather officials said the momentum of July would continue till about August 10 and then slacken a bit.”

From Mint: “India’s July rain deficit narrowed to 10% of the long-term average for the month, marking a recovery from the driest June in five years, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said, as kharif crop sowing picked up in tandem. The shrinking of the rainfall deficit in July comes at a time when policymakers have been concerned about the impact of a below-average monsoon on foodgrain production and inflation. The June-September monsoon accounts for more than 70% of the annual rainfall in India and irrigates crops grown on half the country’s farmlands.”

What the middle class must unlearn

July 1, 2014 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are currently dominating debates on development policy worldwide. The German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) has published a policy paper that recommends the inclusion of a comprehensive environmental goal entitled “safeguarding Earth system services” in the catalogue of new sustainable development goals (SDGs).

The aim of this goal is to bring development paths in line with ecological boundaries, so that human progress can be ensured. In order to operationalise this goal, the WBGU has recommended integrating six targets to protect the climate, the soils and biological diversity. The WGBU points out that compliance with ecological boundaries in the form of “planetary guard rails” is a prerequisite for poverty eradication and development. Taking them into account does not imply restrictions on the future development of the poorest 2 billion people. Rather, in the long term development will only be possible within these planetary guard rails.

“Consumption decisions and lifestyles of the middle and upper classes are causing the greatest threat to the natural life-support systems,” the policy paper has said, because of their high level of resource consumption or high per-capita CO2 emissions. Policy-makers therefore have a responsibility to create the necessary requirements for sustainable production and consumption patterns.

The new measure of monsoon

June 20, 2014 by Climate portal editor 1 Comment

The changes that we find in the patterns, trends, intensity and quantity of India’s monsoon now require an overhaul in the way we assess what is satisfactory or not for environmental and human needs.

By Rahul Goswami

India’s summer monsoon is already late, and where it is late but active it is weak. The indications from the central earth science agencies (including the India Meteorological Department), from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting are that it will be the end of June before the summer monsoon system settles over central India and the western Gangetic plains. Even so, it will be a relief from the searing temperatures but will not assure sowing conditions for farmers and cultivators, nor will it add to the stores of water in major and minor reservoirs.

Districts reporting monsoon data, over two weeks, colour-coded under a revised categorisation (explained in the text) for weekly rainfall. The left bar in each pair is the second week, the right bar is the first. Most districts are coloured light red, signifying rainfall much below the weekly normal. Peach is for the lesser deficient category. Green is normal. The two blue hues – lighter and darker – are for the two excess categories. It is immediately apparent that 485 out of 618 reporting districts (78%) have experienced less rainfall than they should have at this stage of the monsoon.

The situation is very much more worrying than it is presented as by the agencies and departments of the new NDA government, and by industry – which complains about duties and tariffs but pays no collective attention to the daily situation that attends the south-west monsoon. The Ministry of Agriculture has busied itself, since early 2014 May, with mentioning the new high of agricultural exports, with the apparent success of a new SMS service to farmers, with releasing the advance estimates for agricultural and horticultural production, with a review of the implementation of crop insurance schemes and there is one, only one, advisory issued for horticulture crop cultivators concerning what they must do “under the rain deficit conditions”.

Some of the problem – that is, an absence of urgency as the last week of June approaches with little evidence of the customary rains being deposited, and apparently little preparation for a deficit in rains – may be attributable to the manner in which basic rainfall data is assessed and distributed to the public. This is done by the IMD – and more recently by a new private sector that is exploiting the yawning gaps in data presentation and the delivery of timely forecasts.

It is however the IMD, the Ministry of Earth Sciences and the Department of Science and Technology that works with state government agencies and departments in the areas of water resources, agriculture and drinking water supply. With the enormous size of the constituencies that are affected by dwindling water supplies and late sowing, there is a very strong case for revising the terms with which rainfall is measured and the frequency with which forecasts are distributed to districts and settlements.

It is absurd that the primary indicator during the designated ‘monsoon months’, according to the IMD, which are June to September, is a weekly table and weekly map of sub-divisional rainfall. Such an approach is not only out of date in the very hour it is issued – and distributed via the media – it is also grossly negligent of the commendable and ubiquitous advances made by public sector science and private ingenuity alike concerning the handling and treatment of climatic and weather-related data for India.

The typical IMD weekly rain map showing the colour codes and data for India’s 36 meteorological subdivisions. This presentation urgently needs to be retired in favour of a more granular (district) map that is updated as soon as new data is received.

A dense network of weather stations complemented by dedicated satellites provides continuous coverage of the sub-continent, the northern Asian land mass, the surrounding oceans southwards until beyond the Tropic of Capricorn. Methods to simply and accurately funnel this stream of real-time data and imagery are available, mostly at no cost, in order to aid local administrations, farmers and cultivators, and all citizens. It is this availability and relative simplicity of use (block-level weather forecasts for 72 hours are now available as local language apps on smartphones) that needs to be encouraged by the official agencies. More so in a year like 2014 with a late and weak monsoon and an El Nino threatening.

That is why IMD’s hoary top level categorisation of rainfall weekly quantities in the subdivisions must be replaced, both for what they describe and for how frequently they are described. These currently are: ‘normal’ in a subdivision is rainfall that is up to +19% above a given period’s average and down to -19% from that same average; likewise excess is +20% and more, deficient is -20% to -59% and scanty is -60% to -99%. The ‘normals’ are calculated based on the mean weekly rainfall for the period 1951-2000 with monitoring done in 641 districts distributed amongst the 36 meteorological subdivisions.

However, as all those who are engaged in studying and planning for the effects and impacts of climate change recognise, the changes observed on the ground over the last 15 years (rainfall, temperature, intensity of rain, duration of dry and wet spells) have made the term ‘normal’ difficult to use so that it continues to have meaning. Worse, a ‘normal’ with a wide range – over 28 percentage points from a given centre for a location – can lull local administrations particularly to misread the signs and ignore, on the basis of administrative expediency, the need to prepare for contingency.

By categorising rainfall ‘normals’ and departures from ‘normal’ to become more administratively impelling – these proposed corrections also simplify the interpretations possible for rainfall above and below ‘normals’ – greater awareness and preparedness of administrations, key agencies and citizens to the deficiencies of monsoon can be fostered. For the district tables below therefore, I have re-cast the categories as follows (all based on the long-term average provided by IMD): Normal in a district is +5% to -5%; Deficient 1 is -6% to -20%; Deficient 2 is -21% and more; Excess 1 is +6% to +20%; Excess 2 is +21% and more.

Using these revised categories we see that for the second week (2014 June 12 to 18) of rainfall recorded in the districts (618 out of 641 reported) in 20 districts only was the rainfall ‘normal’ for that week. Under the existing IMD category of normal, this number is 81 – thus 61 district collectors will have been informed that in their district there is nothing to worry about, whereas the difference between a below normal reading of -5% and one of -15% can have a lasting impact particularly in rainfed districts where the social and institutional capacities to manage water and to plan credit needs for late sowing may be weak. In the same way, under the existing IMD categories, the difference between the conditions of two adjacent communities, one living in a district with a ‘deficient’ reading of -50% and the other in the neighbouring district (and in the same subdivision) with a ‘scanty’ reading of -70% is no more than technical, for the same degree of contingency planning will be required.

Whereas, for the same second rainfall week the IMD categories were ‘No Rain’ in 80 districts, ‘Scanty’ in 241 districts and ‘Deficient’ in 130 districts, under the proposed revision they will simply be ‘Deficient 2’ with 449 districts – thereby showing dramatically how widespread the conditions of the late and weak monsoon 2014 are – and ‘Deficient 1’ with 36 districts. State departments of agriculture, which have long worked on the frontlines of monsoon emergencies, whether drought or flood, have several generations of institutional experience to call upon in such circumstances. In most states, by 12 June alerts began to be issued to farmers and cultivators on measures to take if the monsoon is 15 days late, 30 days late and if signs of ‘terminal drought’ appear. Such preparedness must quickly extend to other areas – water resources, drinking water, food and civil supplies – for which a new meteorological literacy is urgently needed.

First India-China joint study on climate

March 22, 2014 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

A woman walks against sand and dust storm in Zhongning county, Northwest China’s Ningxia Hui autonomous region in March 2014. Photo: Xinhua

The pre-launch report on the first collaborative India-China study on climate change to be released in Beijing on Monday will generate interest among policy makers and climate watchers, as reported by Hindustan Times.

The title “Low Carbon Development in China and India — Issues and Strategies” is the result of a first-time collaboration between key research institutes in China and India working on issues related to climate change.

“The study examines the main factors in low carbon development – financing, low carbon technologies and on-the-ground implementation – and will encourage greater cooperation between the world’s two largest countries,” said an UNDP official.

China and India are both trying to fight global warming; the low carbon study illustrates some of these efforts and at the same time illustrates some of the current challenges facing both countries, the official added.

The study will help both China and India to share experiences, promote knowledge exchange. At the recently concluded annual session of the National People’s Congress, Premier Li Keqiang, talked about launching a war on pollution in China where coal accounts for a massive share of energy generation.

India and Climate Change

June 22, 2010 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

Introduction

India is a large developing country of sub-continental proportions – home to 1.1 billion people or 17 percent of the world’s population. A large proportion of this population continues to live in rural areas and depends heavily on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, fisheries and forestry for its livelihood². With rapid economic growth, however, the demand for goods, services and energy has soared and large shortfalls are emerging. The government estimates that the rate of growth of energy demand will be 5.2 percent each year if it is to provide energy to all citizens.

It is said that India is a rich country with a lot of poor people. The paradox of India is evident in her contradictions. She has the largest number of poor people in the world, with 45% of children malnourished, and yet has more billionaires than Japan⁴ and a burgeoning middle class aspiring to western consumption standards. The country has advanced space and nuclear programmes, the world’s fifth largest navy³, and is a world leader in a range of technologies from electric vehicles to solar power. And yet, more than sixty years after Independence, official estimates suggest that anything from 400 to 600 million Indians still do not have access to basic electricity.

Public policy on climate change officially therefore continues to be guided by the need to eradicate poverty and develop economically. The Government of India maintains that “the most important adaptation measure to climate change is development itself”⁸. This approach can be seen in the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) which seeks to promote development objectives that yield ‘co-benefits’ that address climate change but are not solely aimed at mitigation or reducing emissions.

Economy and emissions

India is now the third largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world10 after China and the United States. Its per capita emissions are low, however, given the size of the population and account for one-tenth the global average. As an industrializing nation, India’s emissions have risen in the past few decades. Over the period 1994 to 2007, India’s emissions nearly doubled2 and have continued to grow since.

The economic reforms of the 1990s put India on its growth path and the country began to achieve high growth rates of over 7 percent per year. India is now the fifth largest economy in the world in terms of GDP (purchasing power parity) at US$ 3.56 trillion in 2009⁹. Its ranking on the United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development Index however is dismal – India ranked 138 out of 180 on the list in 2008 – indicative of the massive strides yet to be taken on the development front.

Vulnerable land, vulnerable billion

India’s geography and climate are as varied as the country. The Himalayas mark the northern boundaries, the Thar Desert the Western, a 7500 km densely populated coastline along the peninsula, and a heavily monsoon-dependent economy, all make India vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

The future predicted impacts of climate change (IPCC 2004 report) include a decrease in snow cover in the Himalayas, erratic monsoons, rising sea levels and an increase in the frequency and intensity of floods². There is already evidence of prominent increase in the intensity and/or frequency of extreme weather events across Asia¹¹.

Such impacts are likely to reduce the availability of fresh water, threaten food security, affect agricultural production and the people dependent on it, adversely impact natural ecosystems and human health, and exacerbate existing coastal zone problems across a densely populated coast line².

Counting and countering emissions

India emits 1.7 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases each year, as of 2007¹⁰. Most of the emissions come from a heavy dependence on coal, much of which is used to generate electricity. Energy production, most of which comes from coal, accounts for 61 percent of the country’s emissions, and agriculture accounts for 15 percent emissions². Despite a growing economy, emissions intensity (GHGs per unit of GDP) has dropped and is 20% lower than the global average.

Future emissions are set to grow rapidly, owing to high economic growth rates and carbon-intensive development. With current development patterns and business-as usual growth, India could be responsible for up to 6 billion tonnes of GHG emissions by 2030⁷, and lock-in carbon-intensive practices in all areas of growth (industry, buildings, transport, and power).

In the mid-term, the Indian government has pledged to cut its carbon intensity by 20 to 25 percent below 2005 levels by 2020. While these efforts are unlikely to bring about a major deviation from business as usual emission trajectories, they are indicative of initial efforts to mitigate climate change by the government.

End Notes

1.       World Bank, 2005
2.       India’s National Communicationsto the UNFCCC, 2004
3.       Indian Navy; GlobalSecurity.org.
4.       Forbes billionaires list 2010
5.       United Nations Statistics Division, 2006
6.       CDIAC 2006
7.       India’s GHG emissions profile: results of five climate modeling studies. MoEF 2009
8.       National Action Plan on Climate Change
9.       CIA Factbook – India
10.   International Energy Agency 2010.
11.   IPCC 2007 report: Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

Fast facts on Climate Change

April 24, 2009 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

Overwhelming scientific consensus indicates that human activities are the primary reason for recent climate change¹. Over the last century, the burning of fossil fuels has greatly increased the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide² and other heat-trapping (or greenhouse) gases in the atmosphere.
Greenhouse gases are at their highest concentration in 650,000 years – climbing from 280 parts per million (ppm) in 1880 to 389 ppm in 2010².
With this increase in greenhouse gases, average global temperatures have climbed by 0.76° Celsius since 1880. Even if we were to stop emissions today, we are already heading for 1.6°C of warming².
Scientists believe that a 2°C rise in global temperatures (and 450 ppm of CO₂) by 2100, represents a ‘tipping point’ above which runaway (irreversible) climate change could occur¹.
We are already seeing the effects of warming in Arctic ice is melting, massive ice sheets at the poles have collapsed, sea levels have risen, the ocean is warming and becoming increasingly acidic, trees are flowering earlier. Living systems including coral reefs and polar bears are in decline¹.
More than 100 countries – many being least developed and vulnerable small island states – representing more than 50% of the United Nations’ membership – have called for global carbon dioxide emissions to be limited to 350 ppm – an associated rise of 1.5 ° C by 2100, to ensure their survival.
The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), a grouping of 43 of the world’s most vulnerable countries, has called strongly for this 1.5°C stabilization target. These targets are below the 2°C (450 ppm) target promoted by many industrialized countries and some developing countries, which are based on now-outdated science⁴.
Recent economic studies show that tighter targets (than 1.5 °C) are feasible, requiring investments of less than 2% of GDP by 2100. Tighter targets would also send a positive carbon price signal to the markets to drive the development of clean energy technologies needed for the transition to low-carbon economies⁴.
To avoid dangerous climate change, IPCC projections indicate that world emissions must reach their maximum (peak) by 2015, and start reducing soon after, to avoid dangerous climate change¹.
Recent publications indicate that the consequences of climate change are already occurring at a faster pace and with greater magnitude than the climate models used by the IPCC predict³. Recent observations confirm that sea level rise is in the upper range projected by IPCC models³.
In South Asia, freshwater availability is predicted to decrease by 2050, and coastal areas will be at risk from increased flooding¹.

End Notes

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (2007)
National Aeronautics and Space Administration – Goddard Institute of Space Studies
Union of Concerned Scientists
AOSIS press release September 2009

Climate Change Primer

March 26, 2009 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

Here is a primer on climate change – basic reading if you will. Once you have understood the basics, you will be able to explore climate change in greater depth. India Climate Portal will be glad to help you learn about climate change, take action, and reduce your impact.

EARTH’S CHANGING CLIMATE

Throughout Earth’s history, the climate has changed over long periods of time (thousands or millions of years). In the last 650,000 years there have been seven cycles of glacial advance and retreat. These changes have been gradual, and attributed to small changes in the amount of energy the earth received from the sun¹.

About seven thousand years ago, the last ice age ended, marking the beginning of the modern climate era and of human civilization¹. Earlier in our history, humans hunted and gathered food, roaming over vast areas of the planet. Gradually, we learned to grow our food in one location or other, and started to settle down. With the progress of agriculture, use of advanced tools and assured food supply, our population grew. Soon we started producing cloth, machinery, and living together in villages, towns and cities. The Industrial Revolution got underway and coal (a fossil fuel) was burned to generate energy. Prosperity started to increase.

As prosperity increased, lifestyles changed, and we started using more and more machinery to do our work. We soon discovered petroleum (or crude oil), invented many ways of processing it and producing several products from it (petrol, diesel, aviation fuel, LPG and most of our primary energy sources). We started to use petroleum and coal for a sizeable proportion of our work; from running industrial machines, to transporting ourselves, paving roads, packaging goods and generating electricity. Today, our modern civilization depends on industrial activities, which use large quantities of energy; and our biggest source of energy is fossil fuels.

Over the years, we have been burning fossil fuels at faster and faster rates. When we do this, different kinds of gases and particles are released into the atmosphere. These are called emissions, and are gases like carbon dioxide and methane. These gases allow sunlight to enter, but block the heat from escaping: much like a greenhouse, causing a natural greenhouse effect.

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However, here’s the catch!

Since 1751, roughly 351 billion tons of carbon dioxide (and other ‘greenhouse gases’), have been released into the atmosphere. Half of these emissions have occurred since the mid 1970s², and the primary source of these emissions has been fossil fuels.

Global Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions

Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre

Today, there are more of these gases in the atmosphere than ever before, and emissions of carbon dioxide are accelerating. Since these gases trap heat, the Earth’s atmosphere is getting overloaded with these gases. We are also cutting and burning the earth’s natural sinks of carbon – the world’s tropical forests – at an estimated rate of 13 million hectares per year (deforestation). This is causing the Earth to warm in response¹.

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HOW DO WE KNOW?

We know that there is an overload of emissions in the Earth’s system from measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide: CO₂ levels are higher today than at anytime in the past 650,000 years¹!

Source: NOAA; NASA

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WHY SHOULD WE CARE?

A result of so much carbon dioxide is a heating of the earth, or ‘global warming’. In effect, our climate is changing.

Scientists have found many serious changes in Earth’s environment. There is also little doubt that human beings are the cause of this current warming trend.

Global average surface temperatures: 1880 to 2005

Source: State of the World report 2009

Since the 1800s, which marked the beginning of Industrialization (see graph), temperatures have risen steadily. This rise correlates directly to the increase in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere.

Average global atmospheric temperatures have increased by 0.74 degrees Celsius in the past 100 years.

Depending on how much and how soon emissions are reduced, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts an additional 1.8- 4.0 degrees Celsius rise in temperature.

Massive ice sheets cover both Greenland and the Antarctic.

Source: NASA

In a study undertaken by NASA, scientists confirm that these ice sheets are losing much more ice to the sea than they are gaining from snow fall. This changes how much water will stay locked in ice and snow, and increases the sea level. Greenland lost 150 to 250 cubic kilometers (36 to 60 cubic miles) of ice per year between 2002 and 2006, while Antarctica (image below) lost about 152 cubic kilometers (36 cubic miles) of ice between 2002 and 2005.

The major store-houses of water – the ice caps and glaciers are receding. Snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere, permafrost extent, and Northern sea ice are decreasing⁴. There is also enlargement and increased number of glacial lakes and instability in permafrost regions⁴, owing to which buildings are collapsing.

Below is an image of meltwater from Greenland’s ice sheets

Source: www.redorbit.com

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Global sea levels rose about 17 cm in the last 100 years. In the last ten years, the rate of increase per year has nearly doubled, from a rate of change of 2 mm per year, to 3.4 mm per year.

The graphs below show the rate of change of sea level.

Source: NASA

The rate at which land ice is being lost is shown in the illustration to the left. Areas where melt occurred for longer periods of time is shown in red. Each year, ice extent has decreased by 36-60 cubic miles in Greenland.

The extent of arctic sea ice has decreased by 38% as compared to 1979 to 2000 levels, as shown by the illustration on the right.

Source: NASA

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Precipitation and evaporation patterns over the oceans have changed. We know this from increased salinity near the equator, and decreased salinity at higher latitudes⁴.

Biological systems are strongly affected by climate change³. In the terrestrial systems, there is evidence of earlier timing of spring events, leaf unfolding, bird migration and egg-laying; and a poleward and upward shift in ranges in plant and animal species. In marine and freshwater systems, the ranges and abundance of algae, plankton and fish are changing, and increasing evidence of impacts on coral reefs⁴

WHAT IS THE CAUSE?

Scientists have identified the kinds of human activities that are contributing to climate change.

The major sectors that emit greenhouse gases are energy supply, industry, deforestation, agriculture, transport, and waste incineration.

Adapted from: IPCC report 2007

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These activities release three major greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. Carbon dioxide is the largest contributor to climate change, as you can see from the chart below.

Adapted from: IPCC report 2007

WHAT ARE THE EFFECTS?

The expected impacts of an unstable climate and rising sea levels are increased droughts, decreased availability of drinking water, displaced populations, salinisation of soil and freshwater, massive extinctions of wildlife, decreased forest cover, coral bleaching, reduced crop yields, increased epidemics and increased intensity of tropical storms.

People living below the poverty line and dependent on land-based (agriculture) and marine occupations (fisheries) are likely to be the most seriously affected.

As you can see, these consequences don’t affect just others. It affects ALL of us in some way or other.

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WHO IS TO IMPROVE THINGS?

We! That’s who.

YOU can be a very important part of the efforts to reduce climate change. You can become a leader of efforts at different levels. Here are some links that will help you learn more about climate change.

References: 1. California Institute of Technology, NASA: http://climate.jpl.nasa.gov/; 2. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/; 3. State of the World report 2009; 4. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Summary