The India Climate Observatory

Commentary, action and research on climate and development in India

India and Climate Change

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Introduction


India is a large developing country of sub-continental proportions – home to 1.1 billion people or 17 percent of the world’s population. A large proportion of this population continues to live in rural areas and depends heavily on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, fisheries and forestry for its livelihood2. With rapid economic growth, however, the demand for goods, services and energy has soared and large shortfalls are emerging. The government estimates that the rate of growth of energy demand will be 5.2 percent each year if it is to provide energy to all citizens.

It is said that India is a rich country with a lot of poor people.  The paradox of India is evident in her contradictions. She has the largest number of poor people in the world, with 45% of children malnourished, and yet has more billionaires than Japan4 and a burgeoning middle class aspiring to western consumption standards. The country has advanced space and nuclear programmes, the world’s fifth largest navy3, and is a world leader in a range of technologies from electric vehicles to solar power. And yet, more than sixty years after Independence, official estimates suggest that anything from 400 to 600 million Indians still do not have access to basic electricity.

Public policy on climate change officially therefore continues to be guided by the need to eradicate poverty and develop economically. The Government of India maintains that “the most important adaptation measure to climate change is development itself”8. This approach can be seen in the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) which seeks to promote development objectives that yield ‘co-benefits’ that address climate change but are not solely aimed at mitigation or reducing emissions.

Economy and emissions

India is now the third largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world10 after China and the United States. Its per capita emissions are low, however, given the size of the population and account for one-tenth the global average. As an industrializing nation, India’s emissions have risen in the past few decades. Over the period 1994 to 2007, India’s emissions nearly doubled2  and have continued to grow since.

The economic reforms of the 1990s put India on its growth path and the country began to achieve high growth rates of over 7 percent per year. India is now the fifth largest economy in the world in terms of GDP (purchasing power parity) at US$ 3.56 trillion in 20099. Its ranking on the United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development Index however is dismal – India ranked 138 out of 180 on the list in 2008 – indicative of the massive strides yet to be taken on the development front.

Vulnerable land, vulnerable billion

India’s geography and climate are as varied as the country. The Himalayas mark the northern boundaries, the Thar Desert the Western, a 7500 km densely populated coastline along the peninsula, and a heavily monsoon-dependent economy, all make India vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

The future predicted impacts of climate change (IPCC 2004 report) include a decrease in snow cover in the Himalayas, erratic monsoons, rising sea levels and an increase in the frequency and intensity of floods2. There is already evidence of prominent increase in the intensity and/or frequency of extreme weather events across Asia11.

Such impacts are likely to reduce the availability of fresh water, threaten food security, affect agricultural production and the people dependent on it, adversely impact natural ecosystems and human health, and exacerbate existing coastal zone problems across a densely populated coast line2.

Counting and countering emissions

India emits 1.7 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases each year, as of 200710. Most of the emissions come from a heavy dependence on coal, much of which is used to generate electricity. Energy production, most of which comes from coal, accounts for 61 percent of the country’s emissions, and agriculture accounts for 15 percent emissions2. Despite a growing economy, emissions intensity (GHGs per unit of GDP) has dropped and is 20% lower than the global average.

Future emissions are set to grow rapidly, owing to high economic growth rates and carbon-intensive development. With current development patterns and business-as usual growth, India could be responsible for up to 6 billion tonnes of GHG emissions by 20307, and lock-in carbon-intensive practices in all areas of growth (industry, buildings, transport, and power).

In the mid-term, the Indian government has pledged to cut its carbon intensity by 20 to 25 percent below 2005 levels by 2020. While these efforts are unlikely to bring about a major deviation from business as usual emission trajectories, they are indicative of initial efforts to mitigate climate change by the government.

End Notes

1.       World Bank, 2005
2.       India’s National Communicationsto the UNFCCC, 2004
3.       Indian Navy; GlobalSecurity.org.
4.       Forbes billionaires list 2010
5.       United Nations Statistics Division, 2006
6.       CDIAC 2006
7.       India’s GHG emissions profile: results of five climate modeling studies. MoEF 2009
8.       National Action Plan on Climate Change
9.       CIA Factbook – India
10.     International Energy Agency 2010.
11.     IPCC 2007 report: Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

Fast facts on Climate Change

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  1. Overwhelming scientific consensus indicates that human activities are the primary reason for recent climate change1. Over the last century, the burning of fossil fuels has greatly increased the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide2 and other heat-trapping (or greenhouse) gases in the atmosphere.
  2. Greenhouse gases are at their highest concentration in 650,000 years – climbing from 280 parts per million (ppm) in 1880 to 389 ppm in 20102.
  3. With this increase in greenhouse gases, average global temperatures have climbed by 0.76° Celsius since 1880. Even if we were to stop emissions today, we are already heading for 1.6°C of warming2.
  4. Scientists believe that a 2°C rise in global temperatures (and 450 ppm of CO2) by 2100, represents a ‘tipping point’ above which runaway (irreversible) climate change could occur1.
  5. We are already seeing the effects of warming in Arctic ice is melting, massive ice sheets at the poles have collapsed, sea levels have risen, the ocean is warming and becoming increasingly acidic, trees are flowering earlier. Living systems including coral reefs and polar bears are in decline1.
  6. More than 100 countries – many being least developed and vulnerable small island states – representing more than 50% of the United Nations’ membership – have called for global carbon dioxide emissions to be limited to 350 ppm – an associated rise of 1.5 ° C by 2100, to ensure their survival.
  7. The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), a grouping of 43 of the world’s most vulnerable countries, has called strongly for this 1.5°C stabilization target. These targets are below the 2°C (450 ppm) target promoted by many industrialized countries and some developing countries, which are based on now-outdated science4.
  8. Recent economic studies show that tighter targets (than 1.5 °C) are feasible, requiring investments of less than 2% of GDP by 2100. Tighter targets would also send a positive carbon price signal to the markets to drive the development of clean energy technologies needed for the transition to low-carbon economies4.
  9. To avoid dangerous climate change, IPCC projections indicate that world emissions must reach their maximum (peak) by 2015, and start reducing soon after, to avoid dangerous climate change1.
  10. Recent publications indicate that the consequences of climate change are already occurring at a faster pace and with greater magnitude than the climate models used by the IPCC predict3. Recent observations confirm that sea level rise is in the upper range projected by IPCC models3.
  11. In South Asia, freshwater availability is predicted to decrease by 2050, and coastal areas will be at risk from increased flooding1.

End Notes

  1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (2007)
  2. National Aeronautics and Space Administration – Goddard Institute of Space Studies
  3. Union of Concerned Scientists
  4. AOSIS press release September 2009