2016 Archives - The India Climate Observatory

The ‘Hindu’, ignorant about weather and climate, but runs down IMD

September 2, 2016 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

We find objectionable the report by ‘The Hindu’ daily newspaper accusing the India Meteorological Department of scientific shortcoming (‘IMD gets its August forecast wrong’, 1 September 2016). The report claims that the IMD in June 2016 had forecast that rains for August would be more than usual but that the recorded rain was less than usual.

This is nothing but cheap sensationalising by the newspaper of a non-issue. In so doing the ‘Hindu’, which is considered one of Bharat’s national newspapers, has attempted to tarnish the work of not only the India Meteorological Department, but also the work of the earth observation technical community which serve us in the several institutions and agencies of the Ministry of Earth Sciences.

There is no mainstream news media in the country – no daily newspapers, no magazine or periodical, no television channel, no internet website – which possesses the competence to assess the scientific quality and correctness of output of the government earth science agencies, and whose output is delivered to the public every day, several times a day. ‘The Hindu’ certainly does not and with this report exposes its ignorance about meteorology and climate science and observation.

Concerning the newspaper’s claim, rainfall for the period 1 June to 31 August in the 36 meteorological sub-divisions of Bharat, as an area-weighted average, is -3% of the long period average and is therefore well within the boundaries set by both the first stage and second stage forecasts provided by the IMD. Of the 36 sub-divisions, for this period 24 sub-divisions have recorded normal rainfall, four have excess and eight (including the two island sub-divisions) have deficient rainfall. In what way is this an erring forecast?

The news report in the ‘Hindu’ states that the forecasting error it has found “suggests that the agency’s weather models are still not robust enough to capture changes in global climate that could affect” our monsoon. This is nonsense.

The earth observation agencies of the MoES – of which the IMD is a part – for the June to September monsoon forecast employs a group of six parameters that inform the forecast (together called an ensemble forecasting system). These are: north-east Pacific to north-west Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly gradient, south-east equatorial Indian Ocean sea surface temperature, East Asia mean sea level pressure, central Pacific (El Nino region 3.4), sea surface temperature and tendency, north Atlantic mean sea level pressure and north-central Pacific 850mb wind gradient. In what way does this not look at global climate?

Moreover, the IMD and the agencies of the MoES (notably the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology) work closely regionally and internationally on climate science, weather prediction and monitoring. Not only is the IMD implementing for the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) a Regional Climate Centre for South Asia, the monsoon prediction and monitoring system relies on collaboration with: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of USA, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services of UK, and with the national meteorological agencies of Bangladesh, Bhutan, the Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.

And furthermore, it is because the Earth System Science Organisation agencies and institutes revise, review and upgrade forecasting models, computing wherewithal and methods continuously that we have in 2016 an experimental forecast (based on the Monsoon Mission coupled dynamical model).

‘The Hindu’ newspaper has presented its own uninformed reading of differences in forecast averages to make an absurd claim against the IMD, neglecting entirely to mention the extremely valuable service provided, at the district and even at the block level, to Bharat’s kisans via daily sms on weather which will affect crops; neglecting the several excellent initiatives launched by the Department since 2015 on localising forecasts for towns and cities (in close coordination with the National Remote Sensing Centre of the Indian Space Research organisation, the Meteorological and Oceanographic Satellite Data Archival Centre of ISRO’s Space Applications Centre, and the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services.

Monsoon weekly report card 2016

August 18, 2016 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

Employing the modified rainfall measurement categories, we have prepared a ‘report card’ for ten weeks of rainfall beginning with the week 02-08 June and continuing until the most recent which is the week of 04-10 August. This ‘report card’ is based on the recorded rainfall for each district and how much it varies from the normal for that particular week. This variation is portrayed by our ‘report card’ through the modified categories, which are designed to show more finely not merely deficient or excess rainfall, as the current categories do, but the degree of deficiencies or excesses for that district, for that week.

Our indicator of eleven grades (compared with the four of the India Meteorological Department, IMD) uses the same weekly district data to provide greater detail about rainfall adequacy or lack. Using this method we can immediately see from the chart:

1. From the week ending 22 June there have been a large number of districts – between 20% and 40% of all districts for which data is available – included in the four categories that describe rainfall of +20% above the normal.

2. That notwithstanding the overall seasonal prediction of monsoon 2016 having thus far been proved correct, there are almost every week a sizeable number of districts falling in the three categories for deficient rainfall.

3. That for the ten weeks in our report card the number of districts in the -21% to -40% below normal band is greater than the number of districts in the band for +21% to +40%.

In the chart, each bar corresponds to a week of district rainfall readings, and that week of readings is split into eleven grades (plus one for no data). In this way, the tendency for administrations, citizens, the media and all those who must manage natural resources (particularly our farmers), to think in terms of an overall ‘deficit’ or an overall ‘surplus’ is halted.

We find that our modified rainfall categories are more informative at the district level – and therefore cumulatively at the state and meteorological sub-division levels too – and can readily be adopted by administrations and planners.

In today’s concerns that have to do with the impacts of climate change, with the increasing variability of the monsoon season, and especially with the production of food crops, the IMD’s stock measurement – ‘normal’ is rainfall up to +19% above a given period’s average and also down to -19% from that same average, ‘excess’ is +20% rain and more, ‘deficient’ is -20% to -59% and ‘scanty’ is -60% to -99% – is no longer viable.

Heavy rain alert for Bihar, Uttar Pradesh

July 19, 2016 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

Heavy and very heavy rainfall is expected today 19 July and until 22 July in Bihar, eastern Uttar Pradesh and sub-Himalayan West Bengal. The India Meteorological Department has issued a heavy rainfall alert for these regions.

These are the districts which will be the most affected:
In Bihar – Paschim Champaran, Gopalganj, Purbi Champaran, Siwan, Chhapra, Muzaffarpur, Sitamarhi, Madhubani, Darbhanga, Supaul, Saharsa, Madhepura, Purnia, Katihar, Kishanganj, Araria.
In Uttar Pradesh – Pilibhit, Shahjahanpur, Kheri, Hardoi, Sitapur, Shrawasti, Bahraich, Gonda, Balrampur, Basti, Sidharthnagar, Sant Kabir Nagar, Gorakhpur, Deoria, Maharajganj, Kushinagar.

These are the five river sub-basins of the Ganga basin which are affected:
Gomti – including the Kathna, Sarayan, Kalyani rivers. Cities in this sub-basin – Sitapur, Hardoi, Lucknow, Rae Bareli, Sultanpur, Jaunpur.
Ghaghara – including the Saryu, Rapti, Chhoti Gandak rivers. Cities in this sub-basin – Lakhimpur, Shrawasti, Gonda, Faizabad, Basti, Gorakhpur, Kushinagar, Deoria, Siwan, Ballia.
Ghaghara confluence to Gomti confluence – including Chhoti Saryu and Mangal rivers. Cities in this sub-basin – Faizabad, Nizamabad, Azamgarh, Mau, Ghazipur, Buxar, Bhojpur, Chandauli.
Kosi – including Kamala, Pipra, Dhemra rivers. Cities in this sub-basin – Sheohar, Sitamarhi, Darbhanga, Supaul, Madhepura, Saharsa, Kishanganj, Khagaria.
Bhagirathi – including Fariyani Nadi and Kamla rivers. Cities in this sub-basin – Araria, Purnia, Sahibganj, Malda (West Bengal).

In the Middle Ganga plains, the water drainage lines govern the human occupancy of land, particularly the agricultural land and settlements. The rivers meet at acute angles and several tributaries form parallel or sub-parallel lines to the main stream. The major rivers that meet the main stream in the middle plain are the Gandak, the Kosi, the Sone and other small tributaries of Ganga like the Tons, the Karmansa, the Chatar, the Jargo, the Karnauti, the Khejuri on the west of the Sone and those on the east of the Sone are the Punpun, the Mohini and the Chandan.

Floods are recurring feature in this region particularly in the North Ganga plains. Almost all rivers in this middle plain develop a capacity to spill over in the monsoon period and are notoriously dynamic in character, particularly the Rapti, the Ghaghara, the Gandak, the Kosi, the Sone and the main Ganga itself.

A race between monsoon and water

June 1, 2016 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

The southern states of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telengana are in dire need of rainwater to replenish exceedingly low levels in reservoirs and all surface water structures. This water has come in the form of showers over the past five or six days, although the spread of the rainfall has been patchy, and whether rainwater has collected in significant quantities and percolated into sub-soil aquifers will not be known for at least another week.

Until 31 May 2016 the stored water situation as measured by the quantities recorded in the 91 major reservoirs of India was very grave indeed. The most recent weekly bulletin of the Central Water Commission, which monitors what is called the ‘live storage status’ of the 91 major reservoirs, was issued on 26 May. Out of the 91 reservoirs, 37 have hydro-electric power plants which deliver electricity to the states in which these reservoirs are and to the national grid.

The total ‘live storage’ capacity of these 91 reservoirs is 157.799 billion cubic metres (BCM) which is estimated as being about 62% of the total storage capacity of 253.388 BCM that is estimated to have been built or created. But the 26 May bulletin placed the total storage available in these reservoirs at 26.816 BCM, which is 17% of the total of 91 reservoirs. At this time in 2015, the total stored water was 49.119 BCM and the average of the last 10 years of storage at this time was 33.764 BCM. Thus, the stored water for the week ended 26 May is 55% of the quantity stored in 2015 and 79% of the quantity stored at this time averaged for the last ten years.

The Northern region is Himachal Pradesh, Punjab and Rajasthan. There are six reservoirs with total live storage capacity of 18.01 BCM. By 26 May the total storage in these reservoirs was 3.91 BCM which is 22% of the total live storage capacity. The stored volume at the corresponding period in 2015 was 43% and the stored volume of the average corresponding period of the last ten years was 29%.

The Eastern region is Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal and Tripura. There are 15 reservoirs with total live storage capacity of 18.83 BCM. By 26 May the total live storage in these reservoirs was 4.22 BCM which is 22% of total live storage capacity. The stored volume at the corresponding period in 2015 was 34% and the stored volume of the average corresponding period of the last ten years was 20%.

The Western region is Gujarat and Maharashtra. There are 27 reservoirs with total live storage capacity of 27.07 BCM. By 26 May the total live storage in these reservoirs was 3.90 BCM which is 14% of total live storage capacity. The stored volume at the corresponding period in 2015 was 26% and the stored volume of the average corresponding period of the last ten years was also 26%.

The Central region is Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. There are 12 reservoirs with total live storage capacity of 42.30 BCM. By 26 May the total live storage available in these reservoirs is 9.59 BCM which is 23% of total live storage capacity. The stored volume at the corresponding period in 2015 was 33% and the stored volume of the average corresponding period of the last ten years was 18%.

The Southern region is Andhra Pradesh, Telengana, combined projects in both states, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. There are 31 reservoirs with total live storage capacity of 51.59 BCM. By 26 May the total live storage available in these reservoirs was 5.21 BCM which is 10% of total live storage capacity. The stored volume at the corresponding period in 2015 was 27% and the stored volume of the average corresponding period of the last ten years was 20%.

Monsoon outlook for June and July

May 29, 2016 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

At the end of May 2016, based on a reading of the seasonal forecasts of our Earth System Science Organisation group (under the Ministry of Earth Sciences) and complemented by the collaborative seasonal forecasts of the NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, we have prepared an outlook for the June and July monsoon 2016 months.

The regional rainfall outlook for June and July 2016. Green hues are +0.25 to +1mm/day averaged over the outlook period.

The outlook shows: (1) that our main concern of whether the first stage monsoon forecast of the IMD remains true is fulfilled, which is, that the 2016 monsoon will be normal (and better than normal in some regions); (2) that our next most important concern of whether any region will have significantly below normal rainfall is also addressed, and under the current forecasts there is no such region; (3) that the June and July rains will be at least normal in most states and meteorological sub-divisions.

Some provisos need to be observed. The seasonal forecasts are released for three month spells (May to July, June to August, and so on). Depending on the kind of modelling that is followed (and there are several) the outlooks are updated or modified every 10 days to fortnightly to monthly. These updates are based on what are called ‘initial conditions’ which for our current outlook is the first half of May.

Here is a more detailed regional outlook for June and July 2016:
• Tamil Nadu and Kerala will have rain that over the season is +1 to +1.25mm/day.
• Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telengana, Madhya Pradesh, most of Maharashtra, all the states of northern and north-west India, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, Sikkim, Arunachal, lower Assam, western Meghalaya, and Lakshadweep will have rain that that over the season is +0.25 to +1 mm/day.
• Odisha, Chhattisgarh, southern Jharkhand, gangetic West Bengal, eastern Vidarbha (Maharashtra), the north-eastern half of Telengana, north coastal Andhra Pradesh, upper Assam, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura will have rain that over the season is -0.2 to +0.25mm/day and Andaman and Nicobar islands will have rain that is up to -0.5 mm/day.

This outlook we will amend between June 10 and 15 as the ESSO’s forecasts and international collaborative monsoon forecasts are updated.

Normal to good monsoon likely

April 10, 2016 by Climate portal editor 1 Comment

The Indian summer monsoon in 2016 for the months of June to September will be normal to above normal in almost all the meteorological sub-divisions.

This is our reading of the seasonal climatic predictions provided by five different sources, amongst them the India Meteorological Department (IMD), which themselves are based on ensembles of forecasts.

Our outlook for the June to September 2016 period is based on an initial study of the three-monthly and seasonal predictions which are in the public domain, from the following agencies:

A mapping of the forecast by one predictive climate model, for the May to July period. Source: NOAA/NCEP

The Climate Prediction and Monitoring Group of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India; the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) by the Climate Prediction Center of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA; regionalised Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center which are based on models of the NOAA and NASA; and the Meteorological ‘Met’ Office of Britain which is a World Meteorological Organisation climate research centre.

Combining the indications from this early set of forecasts we see that when typical monsoon conditions have set in over southern and peninsular India, the June and July rainfall patterns should be normal for June with an increase in average rainfall for July (in the southern peninsula, the west coast, north-eastern states and the north India mountainous states). The models currently also point to the August and September period recording above normal rainfall over most of India, and normal rainfall in central India.

The climatic prediction models whose forecasting products we have examined make their predictions for 90-day periods (such as May, June and July together) based on conditions observed and calculated for a given month (January, February and March so far). We will consolidate and expand the scope of this initial prognosis – which is of a normal to above normal monsoon – as these forecasts are updated.

March heat patterns in India

March 25, 2016 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

From now until the end of March 2016, the maximum temperature anomalies will be less than what has been experienced in March until the 24th.

The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) numerical weather prediction service has however shown that maximum temperatures will still be above normal by 1 to 3 Celsius over most of central and northern India between 25 and 31 March.

We find that when read with the minimum temperature anomalies, most of peninsular, central and northern India have in March experienced an upward shift in overall temperatures by 1 to 3 Celsius. The meteorological sub-divisions of Telengana, Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra Pradesh in particular stand out for higher minimum temperatures.

Over the last week, maximum temperatures were markedly above normal (5.1° C or more) at most places over West Rajasthan; at many places over Uttarakhand and East Rajasthan; at a few places over Gujarat and at isolated places over Madhya Pradesh; appreciably above normal (3.1°C to 5.0°C) at most places over Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi; at many places over Punjab, rest Gujarat and West Madhya Pradesh.

Maximum temperatures were also appreciably above normal at a few places over Madhya Maharashtra and at isolated places over Marathawada, Vidarbha and Kerala; above normal (1.6°C to 3.0°C) at most places over Rayalaseema and West Uttar Pradesh; at many places over Tamil Nadu, Interior Karnataka, East Madhya Pradesh, and the north-eastern states.