Monsoon outlook for June and July

At the end of May 2016, based on a reading of the seasonal forecasts of our Earth System Science Organisation group (under the Ministry of Earth Sciences) and complemented by the collaborative seasonal forecasts of the NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, we have prepared an outlook for the June and July monsoon 2016 months.

The regional rainfall outlook for June and July 2016. Green hues are +0.25 to +1mm/day averaged over the outlook period.

The outlook shows: (1) that our main concern of whether the first stage monsoon forecast of the IMD remains true is fulfilled, which is, that the 2016 monsoon will be normal (and better than normal in some regions); (2) that our next most important concern of whether any region will have significantly below normal rainfall is also addressed, and under the current forecasts there is no such region; (3) that the June and July rains will be at least normal in most states and meteorological sub-divisions.

Some provisos need to be observed. The seasonal forecasts are released for three month spells (May to July, June to August, and so on). Depending on the kind of modelling that is followed (and there are several) the outlooks are updated or modified every 10 days to fortnightly to monthly. These updates are based on what are called ‘initial conditions’ which for our current outlook is the first half of May.

Here is a more detailed regional outlook for June and July 2016:
• Tamil Nadu and Kerala will have rain that over the season is +1 to +1.25mm/day.
• Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telengana, Madhya Pradesh, most of Maharashtra, all the states of northern and north-west India, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, Sikkim, Arunachal, lower Assam, western Meghalaya, and Lakshadweep will have rain that that over the season is +0.25 to +1 mm/day.
• Odisha, Chhattisgarh, southern Jharkhand, gangetic West Bengal, eastern Vidarbha (Maharashtra), the north-eastern half of Telengana, north coastal Andhra Pradesh, upper Assam, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura will have rain that over the season is -0.2 to +0.25mm/day and Andaman and Nicobar islands will have rain that is up to -0.5 mm/day.

This outlook we will amend between June 10 and 15 as the ESSO’s forecasts and international collaborative monsoon forecasts are updated.