source: unfccc.int
1988: A leading climate scientist James Hansen’s research findings coincided with those of other scientists around the world – the Earth’s climate was changing because of humans. The level of CO2 in the atmosphere had reached 350 ppm, and news and media coverage of global warming shot up following record heat and drought conditions.
This was also the year that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established.
The threat of climate change was real and here to stay. Within months, when heads of state met in Rio De Janeiro in 1992, they adopted the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change – UNFCCC, to consider steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, mainly through international agreement.
Each year since 1995, the UNFCCC has held a ‘Conference of Parties’ (COP) to negotiate and decide on mechanisms to reduce global emissions, mitigate climate change and adapt to it. In 1997, deliberations for concrete action led to the negotiation of the legally binding Kyoto Protocol. As the world approached the new century, there were indications that some progress was being made to tackle the biggest problem humanity had created and would face.
This was not to be. Vested fossil-fuel interests and oil lobbies mobilized a counter-attack23, successfully creating confusion about the facts and pressurizing governments (particularly the United States) to deny the facts and reject the climate change issue.
In a historic diplomatic failure, the United States, under the George W Bush administration refused to sign the Kyoto Protocol, leaving other major industrialized countries shocked.
After nearly ten years of see-sawing negotiations, on 16th February 2005, the Kyoto Protocol became legally binding. But precious time and political momentum had been lost 23. The tragedy of these diplomatic failures has been a serious worsening of the situation. Global emissions are now at 480 ppm, driven by a world economy that runs on oil and coal. Coupled with tropical deforestation, these accelerating emissions have resulted in an alarming rate of increase in carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere 24.
The United States is now the only country that has not ratified the Kyoto Protocol, although it is the second largest contributor of greenhouse gases in the world. Although historical emissions came mostly from industrialized countries, developing countries, not to be outdone, now contribute a large and growing proportion of global emissions.
Non-binding targets on major emitters such as China and India also mean that climate negotiations had led to a impasse between the ‘North’ and the ‘South’.
Over the past few years, owing to a stronger scientific consensus and rising public awareness, the political will to tackle the climate crisis has grown. The EU has made commitments to reduce emissions by 20% below 1990 levels by 2030, and to more cuts if a favourable international agreement is reached in 2009. A new Australian Government ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 2007, and attended the 13th COP, known as the Bali Summit. India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh released India’s National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC). Several states in the US have adopted climate plans, and the Obama administration is all set to take the climate challenge head on.
UNFCCC meetings in 2007 culminated in the Bali Road Map, and an ambitious plan to reach a global long-term agreement that will take over from Kyoto in 2012. This agreement is to be reached at the COP 15 in Copenhagen this year.
Copenhagen: The Crucial Conference
The 15th Conference of Parties of the UNFCCC, to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009, will try to work out a way for the world to work together and agree to a solution to global warming. COP 15 is one of the most significant gatherings ever, as it will be – as many scientists say – the last chance to change, and secure a future for our planet.
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