CSM @ Bangkok – Day 1 – 28 Sep 09

Headline News

UN climate negotiations resume in Bangkok 28 September 2009. Progress here is crucial for a successful deal in Copenhagen.

Thai PM Abhisit Vejjajiva and Danish Minister Connie Hedegaard open talks. Thai PM says “our children and grandchildren will never forgive us unless action is taken”.

Negotiators look forward to Bangkok discussions being fruitful. Understand that progress here is crucial for Copenhagen. All groups and countries say they are willing and ready to engage constructively in discussions.

New climate leadership from Japan welcomed. Many countries commend action to reduce GHG emissions by 25% below 1990 levels by 2020.

The week gone by adds critical momentum

Five weeks after the Bonn3 round of negotiations, climate talks resumed in Bangkok. Between August and now, there has been much political activity directed towards building momentum. Among the numerous high-level meetings, the UN climate summit, hosted by UN Secretary General and attended by over 100 world leaders was the most successful in bringing out the political will necessary to reach a successful deal in Copenhagen this December. Here leaders expressed their determination to seal a comprehensive, fair and effective deal to avoid dangerous climate change. Other developments that brought hope were Japan’s commitment to reduce its emissions to 25% below 1990 levels by 2020, and China and India agreeing to implicit or ‘soft’ targets on mitigation. However, an AOSIS summit held just before the UN climate summit provided a stark reminder of the survival of island and vulnerable countries being in question given the rapid rate of climate change.

Key issues of the day

As Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC, Yvo de Boer, said at the opening of the Bangkok climate talks, ‘time is not just pressing, it has almost run out’. Barely 16 days of negotiating time remain, within which negotiators are imposed with the onerous task of making 280 pages of text clearer, shorter and more coherent. Danish campaigner, Tove Ryding, said that with just three months to a deal, we are still ‘drowning in text’.

Clearly the task of negotiators is not just complicated, it is crucial to a successful outcome. Political will aside, if these two weeks at Bangkok yield a poor harvest, it could mean that a delay in a climate deal could be inevitable.

It might be a optimistic to hope that the pace of negotiation progress will match the increasing pace of action at the highest levels. However, if negotiators have been given high level support from capitols, this may well be possible.

However, key caveats to the success of negotiations include the need to focus on the substance of the text rather than process and a perspective of the larger deal.

Key issues to address over the next two weeks include the ‘bigger picture’:

– On Long-term Cooperative Action (LCA), comprehensive and shorter text, details on key issues – finance, technology transfer, adaptation finance, developed and developing country mitigation action
– On the Kyoto Protocol, firming up targets for developed country emission reductions and rules for forest mechanisms (REDD) and land use (LULUCF)
– On the overall negotiations, commitments to action, follow through of commitments, building trust and transparency in processes

Unlike the Bonn sessions, where the focus was on process rather than substance, negotiations here at Bangkok need to get down to the brass tacks as soon as possible.

Bangkok began on a fairly high note, with negotiators from all groups (G77+China, LDCs, AOSIS, Umbrella, Environmental Integrity, EU and the African group) indicating that they were keen to progress discussions and ready to engage constructively. One measure of positive progress over these two weeks will come from solid output on substance. If by Monday next we see no work on substance, we may not ‘make full sail before we lose the tide’ in the words of Yvo de Boer. In addition, the survival of the Kyoto Protocol and all negotiations finished by Barcelona would indicate real progress.

While India and China’s efforts to engage in the process as responsible Asian giants have not gone unnoticed, what has not yet been said by others is worrisome. Action from the United States is still awaited and their level of ambition is certainly wanting. The EU is still silent on financing, and the Australian proposal submitted to the Greenland Dialogue mainly provides fresh impetus to strengthen carbon markets but specifies little else. Many individual developed countries are still silent on targets, a base year and even commitment periods (5 or 8 years). It is now openly suggested that the numbers game will go on till the last night at Copenhagen in December.

The AOSIS and Africa Group emphasized what was possibly a pressure point for one and all – that a missed opportunity at a deal would undermine the integrity of the Convention itself.

Focus on the GOI

India backed the G77 and China in its statements, saying that no targets for emission reductions by Barcelona will mean that the Copenhagen outcome will be a failure, and pointed out an important point that the negotiation text still does not include any targets.

While other representatives alluded to the mandate by their leaders at key political forums this September, India was silent on comments made by Jairam Ramesh at New York and Pittsburgh. Specifically on positive moves made by the environment minister on India wanting to be a ‘deal maker’and measures such as releasing India’s National Communications to the UNFCCC every year instead of six, and a proposal for a National Climate Change Mitigation Authority mentioned by the Prime Minister earlier this month. Nor was there any effort by India’s negotiators at Bangkok to re-package and sell India’s actions as the Minister for Environment and Forests has been doing successfully internationally.