Precisely at a time when India is confronted with development imperatives²⁵, we will also be severely impacted by climate change. Like other developing countries, several sections of the Indian populace will not be able to buffer themselves from impacts^2,8 of global warming. With close economic ties to natural resources and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water and forestry, India may face a major threat¹⁵, and require serious adaptive capacity to combat climate change. As a developing country, India can little afford the risks and economic backlashes that industrialized nations can. With 27.5% of the population still below the poverty line, reducing vulnerability to the impacts of climate change is essential¹⁵.

It is in India’s interest to ensure that the world moves towards a low carbon future. Many studies have underscored the nation’s vulnerability to climate change⁸. With changes in key climate variables, namely temperature, precipitation and humidity, crucial sectors like agriculture and rural development are likely to be affected in a major way.

Impacts are already being seen in unprecedented heat waves, cyclones, floods, salinisation of the coastline and effects on agriculture, fisheries and health⁸.

India is home to a third of the world’s poor, and climate change will hit this section of society the hardest. Set to be the most populous nation in the world by 2045, the economic, social and ecological price of climate change will be massive.

The future impacts of climate change, identified by the Government of India’s National Communications (NATCOM) in 2004 include²⁵:

• Decreased snow cover, affecting snow-fed and glacial systems such as the Ganges and Bramhaputra. 70% of the summer flow of the Ganges comes from meltwater

• Erratic monsoon with serious effects on rain-fed agriculture, peninsular rivers, water and power supply

• Drop in wheat production by 4-5 million tones, with even a 1ºC rise in temperature

• Rising sea levels causing displacement along one of the most densely populated coastlines in the world, threatened freshwater sources and mangrove ecosystems

• Increased frequency and intensity of floods. Increased vulnerability of people in coastal, arid and semi-arid zones of the country

• Studies indicate that over 50% of India’s forests are likely to experience shift in forest types, adversely impacting associated biodiversity, regional climate dynamics as well as livelihoods based on forest products.

India stands to lose on too many counts to allow a ‘climate-politics-as-usual’ scenario. Therefore, positive engagement with global climate negotiations at the next UNFCCC meeting in December 2009 is crucial⁸.

India’s accelerating emissions

Although not an emitter historically, India currently has one of the fastest growing economies in the world. With a government target of 8% GDP to achieve developmental priorities¹⁶, a share of one sixth of the global population, and changing consumption patterns, India’s emissions are set to increase dramatically.

Growing at an almost breakneck pace, and guzzling coal, gas and oil in large quantities⁴, we are today, the fourth largest emitter of greenhouse gases worldwide. Although our per-capita emissions are among the lowest in the world, our growth rates imply that the past is no predictor of the future⁸. The most recent IPCC report suggests that India will experience the greatest increase in energy and greenhouse gas emissions in the world if it sustains a high annual economic growth rate. The International energy Agency predicts that India will become the third largest emitter of greenhouse gases by as early as 2015.

India imports large quantities of fossil fuels to meet its energy needs, and the burning of fossil fuels alone accounts for 83% of India’s carbon dioxide emissions. Nearly 70% of our electricity supply comes from coal.

Although India has maintained its clear economic and social development imperatives, the government recognizes that climate change is an serious problem, and that business as usual is no longer the way forward.

India on climate change

India has committed to actively engage in multilateral negotiations in the UNFCCC, in a ‘positive and forward-looking manner’¹⁵. The government recognizes that ‘global warming will affect us seriously’ but maintains that the ‘most important adaptation measure to climate change is development itself’⁸. This has ensured that India’s position at the UNFCC has stubbornly remained ‘common but differentiated responsibility’. Under the UNFCCC agreement itself, India is not subject to any binding emission reduction targets until the year 2012.

In spite of this guarded stand, India has ‘declared’ that even as it pursues its social and development objectives, it will not allow its per capita emissions to exceed those of developed countries. The 11th 5-year plan does make headway in reducing energy intensity per unit of GHG by 20 percent while boosting cleaner and renewable energy⁸.

In June 2008, the Prime minister released the much awaited National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC). The NAPCC outlines a strategy by which India will adapt to climate change, while maintaining a high growth rate, protecting poor and vulnerable sections of society and achieving national growth objectives¹¹. It focuses on eight areas intended to deliver maximal benefits to development and climate change (mitigation and adaptation). However, detailed action plans for each mission, and any clear targets are missing from the report⁸.

Although the action plan may be a missed opportunity for leadership on climate change, the good news is that change is coming⁸. Realising that the market is changing, and not to be left behind in the global race, Indian businesses are beginning to take on climate change as a business issue.

What we need now is for the government of India to capitalize on India’s position as a developing giant, take the lead and engage with governments of the world and the private sector for a low-carbon future.

References

1. IPCC report 2007
2. Stern Review
3. Design to Win
4. Imagining India: Nandan Nilekani
5. nasa.gov
6. Earth Policy Insitute
7. International Energy Agency
8. Malini Mehra. India Starts to take on Climate Change.
9. Public information bureau
10. envfor.nic.in
11. Pew Environment Trust
12. United Nations
13. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
14. The Nature Conservancy
15. National Action Plan on Climate Change
16. Sharma S., Bhattacharya S. and A. Garg. Greenhouse gas emissions from India: a
    perspective. Current Science Vol 90, No. 3, p 326-333.
17. KMPG report
18. Climate 101: Pew centre report on Climate change
19. Nasa Earth observatory report
20. Meteorological Office, UK.
21. Royal Society
22. Jacob Rukvitz; 2008; Climate entrepreneurs, GlobalFOCUS
23. State of the World report 2009
24. The Road to Copenhagen: India’s position on climate change issues
25. Climate Change and India: Impacts, Policy Responses and a Framework for EU-India Cooperation. 2008. Policy Department Economic and Scientific Policy, European Parliament

Warming that has already occurred is affecting weather patterns, damaging marine and coastal ecosystems, affecting the Polar Regions and forest ecosystems, and altering crop yields.

Evidence of change: IPCC Report 2007

Observations and data from 1961 show that the average global ocean temperature has increased. The ocean has been absorbing more than 80% of the heat we have added to the climate system so far. Mountain glaciers and snow ice have declined on average in both hemispheres The warming of the oceans and melting ice caps has contributed to sea level rise. Up to 1993, global average sea level rose at a rate of 1.8 [1.3 – 2.3] mm per year. From 1993 to 2003, the rate was faster, at 3.1 [2.4 – 3.8] mm per year More intense and longer droughts have been observed since the 1970’s Cold days, cold nights and frost have become less frequent, while hot days, hot nights and heat waves have become more frequent. All of the ten warmest years on record have occurred since 1990 Many species have been moving poleward by around six kilometers per decade since 1970. Changing seasonal events, with flowering and egg-laying occurring 2-3 days earlier each decade, in the Northern Hemisphere.

For more information see the IPCC report.

Varying degrees of impacts are predicted for varying temperatures. On average, the earth will become warmer. According to the latest IPCC report, even current levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are likely to result in:

Extreme weather events: There are clear indicators that impacts in many sectors will become more and more severe with rising temperatures

Declining crop yields: which could leave millions without the ability to produce or purchase food

Ocean acidification: would affect not just marine systems, but also fish stocks – an already over-extracted resource

Melting glaciers: and rising seas will displace people, submerge cities and lead to salinity of precious arable land. Melting ice sheets are predicted to raise sea levels and threaten at least 4 million km² of land

Biodiversity loss: changing climate affects species, ecosystems and ecosystem functions. Some ecosystems are more vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change than others. In fact, some of the most vulnerable ecosystems are also the richest in biodiversity – wetlands, coastal ecosystems and tropical forests.

Effects would include severe threat to our food and water security, increased droughts, floods, hurricanes and storms, displacement of coastal populations, increased and changed patterns of diseases².

To prevent even more drastic changes from occurring, we need to stabilize the level of greenhouse gases at a maximum of 550 ppm (although scientists suggest ideal levels of around 350 ppm).

To achieve this will require urgent, substantial action from both developed and developing countries. For a start, to avoid the most serious consequences, we will have to peak our emissions no later than 2015, and rapidly reduce emissions after that by 50 to 80% below 2000 levels by the year 2050¹⁸ .

The greenhouse effect
Carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases are naturally present in the atmosphere.
These gases trap heat radiated from the earth’s surface. The effect is the warming of the atmosphere and the earth’s surface, and is called the ‘greenhouse effect’

Since the industrial revolution, several million tonnes of heat trapping (or greenhouse) gases have been released into the atmosphere, accumulating steadily and trapping more and more heat. Around the start of the industrial revolution, the amount of greenhouse gases (mainly carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) were a fairly constant 280 parts per million. Today, the overall amount of GHGs has exceeded 430 ppm; more than a 35 percent increase from pre-industrial levels²².

In June 1988, James Hansen, a scientist with NASA, told politicians in the United States that he was almost 99 percent sure that the reason for record high temperatures that year was not from ‘natural variations’, but from the growing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

The Mauna Loa atmospheric measurements (see table below) are the longest continuous record of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations available in the world. Considered to be one of the most favourable locations for measuring carbon dioxide concentrations, the data shows the highest concentrations of carbon dioxide ever to be recorded. Our greenhouse gas emissions have not stopped at the level seen in the graph, but are continuing to increase at the rapid rate of 2.5 ppm each year² – an alarmingly high rate.

Parallel to the increase in greenhouse gas levels, and as anticipated by scientists², global mean temperatures have increased. In effect, the earth has warmed by 0.76 ºC since the 1900s2. Each decade, the temperature has increased by about 0.2 ºC.

This time series, from the Climatic Research Unit (source: jpl, NASA), shows the combined global land and sea surface temperatures from 1850 to 2007. The y-axis depicts departures from the long-term average (called ‘temperature anomaly’).

source: naturalpartiot.org	source: wikipedia	© Kaavya Nag

Not surprisingly then, all of the ten warmest years on record have occurred since 1990².

According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the top ten warmest years on record have all occurred in the last twelve years. Arctic sea ice was also at a record low level. In September 2007, the Northwest Passage (picture on the right) in the Arctic was ice-free for the first time in satellite record history. (NASA) Scientific evidence and modeling suggests that a 2 ºC rise in average global temperatures represents a ‘tipping point’. Unless the level of greenhouse gases is stabilized, the associated severity of impacts will continue to escalate, and over the next few decades, we would face unavoidable economic and ecological costs2. To prevent the planet from warming to more than this temperature, concentrations of greenhouse gases must not exceed 550 ppm of CO2 equivalent.