The India Climate Observatory

Commentary, action and research on climate and development in India

What you can do

by Leave a Comment

Climate change is a complex biophysical phenomenon with profound implications for human civilization and life on the planet. As a country accustomed to natural climatic variability, there is a tendency to think that we have seen it all before. Present day climate change is different. This is the first time that human beings have interfered with basic natural cycles such as the energy cycle and the water cycle that have kept the planet in equilibrium for millenia. Carbon dioxide levels are now at their highest in 650,000 years  – largely as a result of  carbon released from fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas since the advent of the industrial revolution in the 1700s.

At present rates of increase of emissions, scientists project that the world is heading to a 4 degrees Celsius rise by the end of the century. The rapidity of this temperature rise not only spells doom for wildlife and sea creatures, but also significant stress on everything from human health to livelihood security and economic development. It also increases the risk of tipping points being reached that could propel the world into runaway climate change.

These apocalyptic visions are not fairy stories. Scientists remind us that we face a grim and unpredictable future if we follow business as usual. But there is much we can and must do to avert the worst and lay the base for prosperous, equitable and sustainable societies.

There is much that YOU can do.

Addressing climate change means small, medium and big actions. We can act in the full range of roles that we occupy – as workers,  students, consumers, investors, educators, entrepreneurs and as citizens. And we can act in all of our spheres of influence – our homes, schools, workplaces and in public life.

We can all work to get out the message that climate change is real, it is happening and we need to take action now to address it.

The following are just some actions that we can take in our everyday lives. But remember, we are more than just consumers, climate change is arguably the most fundamental economic issue of our time. Our leaders need regular reminding from us as citizens that we will support courageous action on climate change to avert risk into opportunity.

So, don’t forget that your local MLA and MP also needs to hear from you and benefit from your energy and ideas! …

Here are just a few ideas for what you can do to reduce just one area of climate risk – your carbon footprint:

We use energy for just about anything we do – every time we use electricity and appliances, drive or move around in a vehicle, or throw garbage. Using energy releases greenhouse gases into the atmosphere – measured by a carbon footprint.

If you’re up to for the challenge, you can start by measuring what your emissions amount to. If you live in urban areas, use a car or bike to move around and have appliances like a refrigerator and a washing machine, chances are that your per capita emissions are higher than the average Indians’ emission of 1.3 tonnes of CO2e per person per year.

Use a carbon calculator, preferably one designed for the Indian subcontinent (since we don’t measure petroleum in gallons, distances in miles, or have EU or US car specifications). Whether you are an individual, a big organization or a school, it helps to know how much you emit, so that you can see where the big chunks of emissions come from, and whether you can take steps to address it in the future.

If you want to raise the bar, you can eventually aim to go carbon neutral (making the amount of emissions you remove equal to the amount of emissions you put into the atmosphere), or better that by going carbon positive (remove more greenhouse gases than you put into the atmosphere).

Admittedly, if you are an individual, it is easier to make some lifestyle choices that can reduce your carbon footprint. By implementing energy saving practices in your home, you can save energy and reduce your electricity bills at the same time.

  • Switch on lights and appliances only when required
  • Plug out all appliances at night because they continue to consume power even when in stand by mode
  • Replace all incandescent (classical Edison bulbs) with energy efficient CFLs and LEDs
  • When you buy a new fridge, air conditioner or washing machine, make sure you check for the BEE energy star labels – 5 stars denotes maximum energy efficiency
  • Get appliances serviced regularly, and your lights dust-free
  • Refrain from buying bottled water – carry your own bottle
  • Pay your bills online – its convenient too!
  • Take bucket baths, not power showers
  • Run your washing machine on full-load
  • Wash your car with one small bucket of water – not a running pipe
  • At work, print less, on two-sides, and quick quality when its for rough/ personal use
  • Car pool to work or use the bus
  • Ask to work from home once or twice a week
  • Ask for the office air conditioner to be kept at 24 degrees C rather than 18 or 22

You can see that measuring your footprint before you set out to do these activities, and monitoring it while or after you carry out your plans, lets you assess how effective your good intentions were, and what you can change, or what more you can do.

If you are an organization or an institution, it is harder but not impossible, to reduce your carbon footprint. But doing this makes business sense too. While some companies are already profiting from energy efficiency improvements, others are positioning themselves to be the leaders in low-carbon technologies. That is exactly why corporations around the world are developing carbon management strategies and investing in low-carbon technologies, practices and supply chain management. But remember, successful low-carbon transitioning requires effective strategy with timely practical interventions and monitoring performance.

International Climate Negotiations

by Leave a Comment

India and International Climate Negotiations

India ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1993, and the Kyoto Protocol in 2002. Under the UNFCCC, all countries agreed that climate change is a serious problem that needs to be addressed and that they will work together to regulate emissions.

Under the Convention, India (and other developing countries), has not had to undertake legally-binding commitments to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, since the major proportion of the problem (and historical responsibility) was due to emissoins from developed countries. As a result, the Kyoto Protocol places the burden of emissions reductions on 37 ‘Annex 1’ countries (developed countries and countries in transition). This listing of Annex 1 countries excludes the United States, which did not agree to emissions reductions under the Kyoto Protocol.

Under the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, countries such as India are exempt from mandatory emissions reductions due to their small historical contribution to atmospheric GHG emissions, their low per-capita emissions, and modest financial and technical ability to switch to low-carbon growth without external aid (from developing countries).

With increasing industrialisation over the course of the past few decades by major emerging economies such as India, China, Brazil, South Africa, Russia and Indonesia, and increasing global emissions, the political equilibrium evident at Kyoto has been challenged. Annex 1 countries (since it excluded the US) now only account for a third of global emissions and new groupings have emerged such as the Major Economies Forum convened by the United States. The MEF has been meeting regularly since 2008 and comprises 17 countries – including all the major emerging economies such as India – which collectively account for eighty percent of global emissions. It is estimated that the majority of future emissions will come from these emerging economies.

At the United Nations climate negotiations, India has historically aligned with the G77 and China, a group of 134 countries of which it is a member. The G77 & China group negotiates as a block but increasingly contains within it significant smaller blocs such as the Africa Group, the Least Developed Countries (LDC) group, the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) and others who are articulating their own positions.

Of these, the largest bloc is the LDC bloc (100+ countries), and arguably the most active progressing grouping is the AOSIS. Both the LDCs and AOSIS countries are calling for global temperature rise to be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius to ensure the survival of island nations and vulnerable countries. This position is not shared by the Government of India which cleaves to the conventional 2 degrees limit mentioned in the Copenhagen Accord and the G8/ G20 declaration of 2009. Since November 2009, India has aligned with the three other major developing countries – Brazil, China and South Africa (the BASIC group) – who are increasingly coordinating their positions at international climate change fora.

The Government of India admits that climate change is a global issue that needs to be addressed by the international community on a priority basis. However, India’s approach to the international climate change negotiations has been to keep firmly behind the ‘historical responsibility’ and ‘common but differentiated responsibility’ positions. So India’s policy remains that while it may choose to take on domestic actions in its own self-interest, it will not take on any international commitments that it will be legally bound to comply with.

However, with the growing realisation that India’s stance appears backward and defensive in the face of acknowledged global climate change threats, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has permitted a greater opening and acceptance that the government must embrace a more proactive climate agenda.

For example, in the run-up to the UN Climate Summit (COP15) in Copenhagen in December 2009 which attracted more than 110 heads of state, India sought to be seen as a ‘deal-maker’, with the Prime Minister signing a Major Economies Forum (MEF) political commitment to keep warming below 2 degrees C. Just prior to COP15 in December 2009, India announced that it would agree to voluntarily cut domestic ’emissions intensity’ by 20 to 25% by 2020.

An official GoI letter said: ‘India endeavors to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 20-25% by 2020 in comparison to the 2005 level’. While details on how the emission cuts are to be achieved are yet to come out, it is possible that the mitigation benefits of each National Mission of the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) will contribute to this effort.

India’s position on climate change

The Government of India’s historical position is that as a developing country, it is not responsible for past greenhouse gas emissions and any solution to climate change must take the issue of equity into account. The GoI says that India is willing to do its ‘fair share’, apportioned by country-wise historical contributions.

India has historically had low per-capita emission rates, and has often used the argument that every human being has an equal right to the atmosphere – per capita entitlements to the global atmospheric space. However, this argument is seen as a ‘right to pollute’ and has not gone down well with either industrialised countries or vulnerable countries most at risk of climate change.

In absolute terms, India is now the fourth largest emitter of greenhouse gases, with just under five percent of the global share of emissions. Since taking office in May 2009, the Minister for Environment and Forests, Jairam Ramesh, has sought to pursue a more proactive role in international climate negotiations and engaged in lively debates in Parliament on the issue.

At the UN climate negotiations, however, India has laid out its three ‘red lines’ – positions that it will not go beyond:

  1. No legally binding emission cuts (therefore still in keeping with Kyoto and UNFCCC requirements)
  2. No ‘peaking’ year for emission levels
  3. No international monitoring and review of voluntary domestic actions.

National climate change programmes

In June 2008, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh released India’s first National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC). The NAPCC is a 52-page outline of how the country seeks to address domestic mitigation and adaption action. It presents policies (existing and future) and eight ‘Missions’ that will address developmental challenges and alleviate climate change at the same time. All actions undertaken through the NAPCC are domestic and not under the purview of any legally binding regimes.

The eight ‘Misisons’ are divided equally between mitigation and adaptation, and “identify measures that promote development objectives while also yielding co-benefits for addressing climate change effectively”.

So far however, only the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission, launched in January 2010, has received a budgetary allocation for the first phase, and amounting to Rs.4,337 crore ($900 million). The JNNSM eventually aims to install 20,000 MW of solar power by 2022. A plan under this mission is the Bureau of Energy Efficiency’s (BEE) plan to have 60 solar cities in India by the end of the 11th 5-Year Plan.

The National Mission on Enhanced Energy Efficiency (NMEEE), the second flagship mission of the NAPCC, aims at implementing a host of programmes that will tackle energy efficiency in the industry and power sectors largely.  While full details of the mission are not available, it has been approved by cabinet, and has received a budgetary allocation of Rs. 253.35 Crore for the initial phase. 

A draft documents of the ‘Green India Mission’ is ready, and the Ministry of Environment and Forests has projected a total cost of Rs. 44,000 Crore over a period of ten years, starting 2012. 

The Naitional Water Mission and the Sustainable Habitat Mission have been approved by the Prime Minister, but few other details are available on the same.

Some Indian states – including the Himalayan States, Gujarat, Kerala and New Delhi have been proactive in addressing climate change and capitalising on the potential for cleaner energy. New Delhi has launched a climate change action plan modeled closely on the NAPCC, running through 2012, and building greener infrastructure for the Commonwealth Games, for which New Delhi is the host city. Kerala has announced a Rs. 1000 Crore green fund to be used over the next five years, and a Rs 55 Crore scheme that will reach CFL bulbs to 75 lakh households across the state.Orissa has announced a Rs. 5000 Crore project to electrify 3000 remote villages using solar energy. Tripura the capital of Manipur has announced it will be the first CNG and green city by 2013. 191 villages in Jammu and Kashmir are to get solar electricity at the cost of Rs. 54 Crore.

However, what is still lacking is a national climate change strategy, which is reported to be in the making, and likely to be ready by 2012.

For more information:
India Climate Watch
India – Emerging Leadership on Climate Change, Dec 2008
India starts to take on climate change – State of the World 2009

What climate change means for India

by Leave a Comment

India has reason to be concerned about the effects of climate change2. Across its geography, India shows a wide range of climatic conditions – from the high altitude Himalayas to the marine climates of the coastline and islands; from the arid deserts of the north-west to the tropical forests of the north-east. Owing to this complex geography, the consequences of changes in climate would vary greatly across the different climatic zones of the country.

Much of the climate and a large proportion of the economy depend on the South West Monsoon – the short three-month period over which nearly all the rainfall occurs over the subcontinent. Any changes in the monsoon will further stress water availability and distribution across the subcontinent.

Regional climate model simulations for India indicate that a 0.4 °C rise in annual air surface temperature has already taken place2. Predicted increases in maximum and minimum temperatures and increased frequency and intensity of floods and drought are likely to adversely affect agriculture, ecosystems, coastal zones, health and infrastructure.

Projections of rainfall vary from model to model, but it is projected climate change will affect water balance in various parts of the country, and alter the quality of ground water.

Reduced water availability – owing to glacier retreat and decreased rainfall will increase water stress. These and other impacts become significant in light of projected water demands from a growing population: estimated to rise to 980 billion cubic metres by 2050.

River basins of west-flowing Mahi, Pennar, Sabarmati and Tapati are likely to experience constant water scarcities, while the river basins of the Cauvery, Ganga, Narmada and Krishna are likely to experience seasonal or regular water-stressed conditions.

Agriculture

Sixty-eight percent of agriculture in India is rain-fed, and depends heavily on the quantity and distribution of rainfall2. Predicted effects include a drop in wheat production if the effects of climate change are ‘pessimistic’ – i.e, higher temperature increase.

Ecosystems

Regional climate model predictions indicate shifts in forest boundary, changes in species assemblages, and 70 percent of forest vegetation likely to be less optimally adapted to their existing locations. These are long-term and irreversible impacts, for which long-term adaptation strategies need to be developed. Mangroves submergence and increased wetland salinity are likely to occur with sea level rise, as also bleaching of degraded coral reefs that are typical to South Asia.

Coastal Areas

India’s coastline is densely populated – with an average population density of 455 persons per km2 as opposed to the national average is 324. Adverse effects are likely to be worsening of existing coastal zone problems such as erosion, flooding, and the submergence and deterioration of coastal ecosystems.

A one-meter sea level rise could displace about 7.1 million people, and result in the loss of 5674 sq. km of land, damage coastal infrastructure and result in the salinisation of fertile agricultural soils.

Health

Similar to other tropical countries, India is predicted to have increased susceptibility to vector-borne diseases such as malaria – projected to move to higher latitudes and altitudes, covering ten percent more area in 2080 than it did in 2000.

References

  1. Amarasinghe et al. India’s water supply and demand from 2025-2050: Business as Usual Scenario and Issues. IWMI
  2. India National Communications. 2004

India and Climate Change

by Leave a Comment

Introduction


India is a large developing country of sub-continental proportions – home to 1.1 billion people or 17 percent of the world’s population. A large proportion of this population continues to live in rural areas and depends heavily on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, fisheries and forestry for its livelihood2. With rapid economic growth, however, the demand for goods, services and energy has soared and large shortfalls are emerging. The government estimates that the rate of growth of energy demand will be 5.2 percent each year if it is to provide energy to all citizens.

It is said that India is a rich country with a lot of poor people.  The paradox of India is evident in her contradictions. She has the largest number of poor people in the world, with 45% of children malnourished, and yet has more billionaires than Japan4 and a burgeoning middle class aspiring to western consumption standards. The country has advanced space and nuclear programmes, the world’s fifth largest navy3, and is a world leader in a range of technologies from electric vehicles to solar power. And yet, more than sixty years after Independence, official estimates suggest that anything from 400 to 600 million Indians still do not have access to basic electricity.

Public policy on climate change officially therefore continues to be guided by the need to eradicate poverty and develop economically. The Government of India maintains that “the most important adaptation measure to climate change is development itself”8. This approach can be seen in the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) which seeks to promote development objectives that yield ‘co-benefits’ that address climate change but are not solely aimed at mitigation or reducing emissions.

Economy and emissions

India is now the third largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world10 after China and the United States. Its per capita emissions are low, however, given the size of the population and account for one-tenth the global average. As an industrializing nation, India’s emissions have risen in the past few decades. Over the period 1994 to 2007, India’s emissions nearly doubled2  and have continued to grow since.

The economic reforms of the 1990s put India on its growth path and the country began to achieve high growth rates of over 7 percent per year. India is now the fifth largest economy in the world in terms of GDP (purchasing power parity) at US$ 3.56 trillion in 20099. Its ranking on the United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development Index however is dismal – India ranked 138 out of 180 on the list in 2008 – indicative of the massive strides yet to be taken on the development front.

Vulnerable land, vulnerable billion

India’s geography and climate are as varied as the country. The Himalayas mark the northern boundaries, the Thar Desert the Western, a 7500 km densely populated coastline along the peninsula, and a heavily monsoon-dependent economy, all make India vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

The future predicted impacts of climate change (IPCC 2004 report) include a decrease in snow cover in the Himalayas, erratic monsoons, rising sea levels and an increase in the frequency and intensity of floods2. There is already evidence of prominent increase in the intensity and/or frequency of extreme weather events across Asia11.

Such impacts are likely to reduce the availability of fresh water, threaten food security, affect agricultural production and the people dependent on it, adversely impact natural ecosystems and human health, and exacerbate existing coastal zone problems across a densely populated coast line2.

Counting and countering emissions

India emits 1.7 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases each year, as of 200710. Most of the emissions come from a heavy dependence on coal, much of which is used to generate electricity. Energy production, most of which comes from coal, accounts for 61 percent of the country’s emissions, and agriculture accounts for 15 percent emissions2. Despite a growing economy, emissions intensity (GHGs per unit of GDP) has dropped and is 20% lower than the global average.

Future emissions are set to grow rapidly, owing to high economic growth rates and carbon-intensive development. With current development patterns and business-as usual growth, India could be responsible for up to 6 billion tonnes of GHG emissions by 20307, and lock-in carbon-intensive practices in all areas of growth (industry, buildings, transport, and power).

In the mid-term, the Indian government has pledged to cut its carbon intensity by 20 to 25 percent below 2005 levels by 2020. While these efforts are unlikely to bring about a major deviation from business as usual emission trajectories, they are indicative of initial efforts to mitigate climate change by the government.

End Notes

1.       World Bank, 2005
2.       India’s National Communicationsto the UNFCCC, 2004
3.       Indian Navy; GlobalSecurity.org.
4.       Forbes billionaires list 2010
5.       United Nations Statistics Division, 2006
6.       CDIAC 2006
7.       India’s GHG emissions profile: results of five climate modeling studies. MoEF 2009
8.       National Action Plan on Climate Change
9.       CIA Factbook – India
10.     International Energy Agency 2010.
11.     IPCC 2007 report: Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

Fast facts on Climate Change

by Leave a Comment

  1. Overwhelming scientific consensus indicates that human activities are the primary reason for recent climate change1. Over the last century, the burning of fossil fuels has greatly increased the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide2 and other heat-trapping (or greenhouse) gases in the atmosphere.
  2. Greenhouse gases are at their highest concentration in 650,000 years – climbing from 280 parts per million (ppm) in 1880 to 389 ppm in 20102.
  3. With this increase in greenhouse gases, average global temperatures have climbed by 0.76° Celsius since 1880. Even if we were to stop emissions today, we are already heading for 1.6°C of warming2.
  4. Scientists believe that a 2°C rise in global temperatures (and 450 ppm of CO2) by 2100, represents a ‘tipping point’ above which runaway (irreversible) climate change could occur1.
  5. We are already seeing the effects of warming in Arctic ice is melting, massive ice sheets at the poles have collapsed, sea levels have risen, the ocean is warming and becoming increasingly acidic, trees are flowering earlier. Living systems including coral reefs and polar bears are in decline1.
  6. More than 100 countries – many being least developed and vulnerable small island states – representing more than 50% of the United Nations’ membership – have called for global carbon dioxide emissions to be limited to 350 ppm – an associated rise of 1.5 ° C by 2100, to ensure their survival.
  7. The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), a grouping of 43 of the world’s most vulnerable countries, has called strongly for this 1.5°C stabilization target. These targets are below the 2°C (450 ppm) target promoted by many industrialized countries and some developing countries, which are based on now-outdated science4.
  8. Recent economic studies show that tighter targets (than 1.5 °C) are feasible, requiring investments of less than 2% of GDP by 2100. Tighter targets would also send a positive carbon price signal to the markets to drive the development of clean energy technologies needed for the transition to low-carbon economies4.
  9. To avoid dangerous climate change, IPCC projections indicate that world emissions must reach their maximum (peak) by 2015, and start reducing soon after, to avoid dangerous climate change1.
  10. Recent publications indicate that the consequences of climate change are already occurring at a faster pace and with greater magnitude than the climate models used by the IPCC predict3. Recent observations confirm that sea level rise is in the upper range projected by IPCC models3.
  11. In South Asia, freshwater availability is predicted to decrease by 2050, and coastal areas will be at risk from increased flooding1.

End Notes

  1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (2007)
  2. National Aeronautics and Space Administration – Goddard Institute of Space Studies
  3. Union of Concerned Scientists
  4. AOSIS press release September 2009

Climate Change Primer

by Leave a Comment

Here is a primer on climate change – basic reading if you will. Once you have understood the basics, you will be able to explore climate change in greater depth. India Climate Portal will be glad to help you learn about climate change, take action, and reduce your impact.

EARTH’S CHANGING CLIMATE

Throughout Earth’s history, the climate has changed over long periods of time (thousands or millions of years). In the last 650,000 years there have been seven cycles of glacial advance and retreat. These changes have been gradual, and attributed to small changes in the amount of energy the earth received from the sun1.

About seven thousand years ago, the last ice age ended, marking the beginning of the modern climate era and of human civilization1. Earlier in our history, humans hunted and gathered food, roaming over vast areas of the planet. Gradually, we learned to grow our food in one location or other, and started to settle down. With the progress of agriculture, use of advanced tools and assured food supply, our population grew. Soon we started producing cloth, machinery, and living together in villages, towns and cities. The Industrial Revolution got underway and coal (a fossil fuel) was burned to generate energy. Prosperity started to increase.

As prosperity increased, lifestyles changed, and we started using more and more machinery to do our work. We soon discovered petroleum (or crude oil), invented many ways of processing it and producing several products from it (petrol, diesel, aviation fuel, LPG and most of our primary energy sources). We started to use petroleum and coal for a sizeable proportion of our work; from running industrial machines, to transporting ourselves, paving roads, packaging goods and generating electricity. Today, our modern civilization depends on industrial activities, which use large quantities of energy; and our biggest source of energy is fossil fuels.

Over the years, we have been burning fossil fuels at faster and faster rates. When we do this, different kinds of gases and particles are released into the atmosphere. These are called emissions, and are gases like carbon dioxide and methane. These gases allow sunlight to enter, but block the heat from escaping: much like a greenhouse, causing a natural greenhouse effect.

However, here’s the catch!

Since 1751, roughly 351 billion tons of carbon dioxide (and other ‘greenhouse gases’), have been released into the atmosphere. Half of these emissions have occurred since the mid 1970s2, and the primary source of these emissions has been fossil fuels.

Global Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions

Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre

Today, there are more of these gases in the atmosphere than ever before, and emissions of carbon dioxide are accelerating. Since these gases trap heat, the Earth’s atmosphere is getting overloaded with these gases. We are also cutting and burning the earth’s natural sinks of carbon – the world’s tropical forests – at an estimated rate of 13 million hectares per year (deforestation). This is causing the Earth to warm in response1.

HOW DO WE KNOW?

We know that there is an overload of emissions in the Earth’s system from measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide: CO2 levels are higher today than at anytime in the past 650,000 years1!

Source: NOAA; NASA

WHY SHOULD WE CARE?

A result of so much carbon dioxide is a heating of the earth, or ‘global warming’. In effect, our climate is changing.

Scientists have found many serious changes in Earth’s environment. There is also little doubt that human beings are the cause of this current warming trend.

Global average surface temperatures: 1880 to 2005

Source: State of the World report 2009

  
Since the 1800s, which marked the beginning of Industrialization (see graph), temperatures have risen steadily. This rise correlates directly to the increase in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere.

Average global atmospheric temperatures have increased by 0.74 degrees Celsius in the past 100 years.

Depending on how much and how soon emissions are reduced, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts an additional 1.8- 4.0 degrees Celsius rise in temperature.

Massive ice sheets cover both Greenland and the Antarctic.

Source: NASA

In a study undertaken by NASA, scientists confirm that these ice sheets are losing much more ice to the sea than they are gaining from snow fall. This changes how much water will stay locked in ice and snow, and increases the sea level. Greenland lost 150 to 250 cubic kilometers (36 to 60 cubic miles) of ice per year between 2002 and 2006, while Antarctica (image below) lost about 152 cubic kilometers (36 cubic miles) of ice between 2002 and 2005.

The major store-houses of water – the ice caps and glaciers are receding. Snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere, permafrost extent, and Northern sea ice are decreasing4. There is also enlargement and increased number of glacial lakes and instability in permafrost regions4, owing to which buildings are collapsing.

Below is an image of meltwater from Greenland’s ice sheets

Source: www.redorbit.com

Global sea levels rose about 17 cm in the last 100 years. In the last ten years, the rate of increase per year has nearly doubled, from a rate of change of 2 mm per year, to 3.4 mm per year.

The graphs below show the rate of change of sea level.

Source: NASA

The rate at which land ice is being lost is shown in the illustration to the left. Areas where melt occurred for longer periods of time is shown in red. Each year, ice extent has decreased by 36-60 cubic miles in Greenland.

The extent of arctic sea ice has decreased by 38% as compared to 1979 to 2000 levels, as shown by the illustration on the right.

Source: NASA

Precipitation and evaporation patterns over the oceans have changed. We know this from increased salinity near the equator, and decreased salinity at higher latitudes4.

Biological systems are strongly affected by climate change3. In the terrestrial systems, there is evidence of earlier timing of spring events, leaf unfolding, bird migration and egg-laying; and a poleward and upward shift in ranges in plant and animal species. In marine and freshwater systems, the ranges and abundance of algae, plankton and fish are changing, and increasing evidence of impacts on coral reefs4

WHAT IS THE CAUSE?

Scientists have identified the kinds of human activities that are contributing to climate change.

The major sectors that emit greenhouse gases are energy supply, industry, deforestation, agriculture, transport, and waste incineration.

Adapted from: IPCC report 2007

These activities release three major greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. Carbon dioxide is the largest contributor to climate change, as you can see from the chart below.

Adapted from: IPCC report 2007

WHAT ARE THE EFFECTS?

The expected impacts of an unstable climate and rising sea levels are increased droughts, decreased availability of drinking water, displaced populations, salinisation of soil and freshwater, massive extinctions of wildlife, decreased forest cover, coral bleaching, reduced crop yields, increased epidemics and increased intensity of tropical storms.

People living below the poverty line and dependent on land-based (agriculture) and marine occupations (fisheries) are likely to be the most seriously affected.

As you can see, these consequences don’t affect just others. It affects ALL of us in some way or other.

WHO IS TO IMPROVE THINGS?

We! That’s who.

YOU can be a very important part of the efforts to reduce climate change. You can become a leader of efforts at different levels. Here are some links that will help you learn more about climate change.

References: 1. California Institute of Technology, NASA: http://climate.jpl.nasa.gov/; 2. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/; 3. State of the World report 2009; 4. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Summary