Precisely at a time when India is confronted with development imperatives¹, we will also be severely impacted by climate change. As a developing country, India can little afford the risks and economic backlashes that are associated with the effects of climate change. With 27.5% of the population still below the poverty line, reducing vulnerability to the impacts of climate change is essential¹⁵.

Like many other developing countries, several sections of the Indian populace will not be able to buffer themselves from the impacts^2,8 of global warming. With close economic ties to natural resources and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water and forestry, India may face a major threat¹⁵, and will likely require serious adaptive capacity to combat climate change.

Many studies have underscored the nation’s vulnerability to climate change⁸. These reports suggest that with changes in key climate variables, namely temperature, precipitation and humidity, crucial sectors like agriculture, health and rural development are likely to be affected in a major way. Impacts are already being seen in unprecedented heat waves, cyclones, floods, salinisation of the coastline and effects on agriculture, fisheries and health⁸.

The future impacts of climate change, identified by the Government of India’s National Communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change includes:

  §  Decreased snow cover, affecting snow-fed and glacial systems such as the Ganges and Bramhaputra. 70% of the summer flow of the Ganges comes from meltwater§  Erratic monsoon with serious effects on rain-fed agriculture, peninsular rivers, water and power supply§  Drop in wheat production by 4-5 million tones, with even a 1ºC rise in temperature§  Rising sea levels causing displacement along one of the most densely populated coastlines in the world, threatened freshwater sources and mangrove ecosystems §  Increased frequency and intensity of floods. Increased vulnerability of people in coastal, arid and semi-arid zones of the country§  Studies indicate that over 50% of India’s forests are likely to experience shift in forest types, adversely impacting associated biodiversity, regional climate dynamics as well as livelihoods based on forest products. Such changes have a direct effect on our 7500 km coastline, our largely agri-based economy, water security to millions of people living in the ‘bread basket’ of the country: the Gangetic plain, and to a large section of our populace that has scarce access to basic facilities. 

The effects of climate change can only only be stalled if the world as a whole begins to move towards a low-carbon economy. However, with emissions increasing year after year rather than reducing, there is an urgent need for countries of the world to set their economies on a low-carbon strategy. We stand to lose on too many counts to allow a ‘economy-politics-business’ as usual scenario to continue.