India the ‘grim reaper’ of Durban’s climate talks

Friday, 09 December 2011

Two weeks of close observation of the conduct of the Indian delegation at the COP 17 climate negotiations in Durban, have shown that the Indian government has consistently blocked efforts to move negotiations forward. At a time when the most vulnerable and least-developed countries are calling for legally-binding emissions reductions from major emitters such as the USA, China and India, our government has ducked-and-dived thwarting these efforts.

Despite its rhetoric of support for vulnerable nations – indeed, India routinely casts itself as the most vulnerable country to climate change – the government’s actions on the negotiating floor has put them at odds with the majority of vulnerable nations in these talks. India is now seen in small huddles with the USA and China, rather than supporting the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) or the Least Developed Countries (LDC).

This is disappointing, and need not be the case. At the previous UN climate summits in Cancun (2010) and Copenhagen (2009), we had a courageous and informed environment minister leading the negotiations for India. Jairam Ramesh took risks and fought the conventional wisdom – in India’s long-term interest. For this he was widely singled-out for praise. Instead, what we have now is cut-price leadership from a trillion-dollar country – at a time when the stakes could not be higher.
This can be changed. But India’s political establishment needs to understand that its credibility is at stake. When far smaller and poorer nations such as Bangladesh can field a delegation three times the size of India’s, it has to be asked: does the Government of India even understand its national interest?

If it did, perhaps more effort would have gone into actually crafting a negotiating position where India could recognise its responsibilities to the global commons as a major emitter and work to close differences. Instead, India whips out its large population denominator every time and talks of ‘equity’. This is a country with more billionaires than Japan and more mobile phones than toilets. A country where income inequality has doubled in 20 years; where economic growth has not dented grotesque child malnutrition rates; and where not even a single state is either low or moderate in terms of severity of hunger. All this despite an average 8% GDP growth rate over the past decade. Such a country of shameful inequality is in no position to lecture anyone about equity.

Nor is any of this fooling our neighbours. They see the glitzy malls going up and Mukesh Ambani’s billion-dollar skyscraper home (not lived in because it’s not facing the right way!). They see the mountains of wealth and the extremes of inequality, where people are barely treated as human. They read about the endless scams – including 2G where a former environment minister ripped off his country’s exchequer by forty billion dollars. If they are more informed, they will know that India’s black carbon emissions are fuelling glacier melt and suffocating our neighbourhood. But shush – that is a dirty secret we don’t want to talk about.

This is partly why many in our neighbourhood have broken ranks with dinosaur formations such as the ‘G-77/China’ and chosen to create their own political alliances where they can speak to their own agendas and priorities. Central to this is sheer survival in the face of accelerating climate change. Along with the Alliance of Small Island States, they have called for global mean temperature rise not to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius – more ambitious than the 2 degrees Celsius that forms the current global consensus. Sadly for these nations, scientists predict that if warming trends remain unchecked, we are heading for 4 degrees C average temperature rise in a few decade. For Africa this translates into an unthinkable 6-7 degrees Celsius temperature rise by end-century – when everybody fries.

These countries understand their interest. They feel the fear in their gut. They are frightened of their future and what it will bring. If we understood our risks as a country – where water and food security are already on the knife-edge – we too would be scared, and act accordingly.

Instead, we patronise the vulnerable nations. We call ourselves ‘vulnerable’ – without showing any emotional or intellectual understanding of what this means. We talk down to them – as the Indian Ambassador did at the United Nations Security Council this year when vulnerable countries called for a debate on climate security.
Little wonder these nations have had enough. Over the last two years, one of the most exciting developments to observe has been the emergence of the ‘Cartagena Dialogue for Progressive Action’. This is a new grouping of developing and developed countries such as Bangladesh, Maldives, Indonesia, Chile, Malawi, Netherlands, Norway, Costa Rica, Australia, UK, etc. that have come together across historic ‘north-south’ divides to carve out a new middle ground in international climate politics. India is not a member and has allegedly been putting pressure on neighbouring countries to drop their support for this initiative.

The good news is that this new wave of cross-over alliances is having an impact. Yesterday, in an unprecedented move, the least developed countries, the Alliance of Small Island States and the European Union hosted a joint press conference calling for an ambitious outcome in Durban. They noted “The price of buying time is rising. Durban must deliver. The EU, LDCs and AOSIS are ready to undertake concrete obligations to manage the climate change challenge. We urge others to join.”
While posturing as a card-carrying member of the vulnerable nations, India is most commonly seen in the company of the USA and China in Durban – the G-3. As the three largest emitters of climate-changing gases, this is understandable. But if India wants to salvage any residual reputation for being on the right side of the argument in combating climate change – it should re-think its strategy, and its company.

The negotiations in Durban might not be at the forefront of the coalition Government’s mind as it fights for its political life under the onslaught of Team Anna’s anti-corruption campaign. But as Congress president, Sonia Gandhi, celebrates her 65th birthday today, perhaps she should reflect on what she can do to embolden Indian negotiators in Durban.

Firstly, India cannot continue to insist that negotiations on a binding agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions should only start in 2020. This puts it in the worst company of climate laggards such as the USA. The decision is best seen as a choice between keeping a pathway to 2 degrees Celsius viable and closing the door now. Neither does this mean an immediate demand for India to adopt legally binding emissions reductions. Even the EU’s Roadmap only calls for a India’s emissions intensity targets in the next phase. While the detail of the negotiations can be bewildering, the core issue is not. It is about leadership, and not condemning India’s poor.

Jairam Ramesh understood leadership. Mrs Gandhi does too. As we all know, a word from her could stiffen the spine of minister, Jayanthi Natarajan, and put India in the forefront of a progressive new force at Durban. Instead of the Grim Reaper of Durban, India could emerge as the best friend and well-wisher of Africa.

Who knows, it might be the best birthday present Mrs Gandhi gets today. Her namesake, an erstwhile Hindu lawyer from Durban, with the initials ‘M.K.’, would certainly approve…

Malini Mehra is chief executive of the Centre for Social Markets (India) and director of Chinadialogue.net