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An 8th century moral for climate dialogue

September 4, 2015 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi employed an event from the life of Sri Adi Shankarachaya, the late 8th century spiritual master, to emphasise the importance of dialogue in finding ways to deal with climate change and also problems that are international in scope, such as conflict and the need for environmental consciousness.

Modi said this at the inauguration in New Delhi of ‘Samvad’, the Global Hindu-Buddhist Initiative on Conflict Avoidance and Environment Consciousness. Amongst those who listened to his address were: the Most Venerable Sayadaw Dr Asin Nyanissara, Founder Chancellor of the Sitagu International Buddhist Academy in Myanmar; Her Excellency Mrs Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga, the former President of Sri Lanka; Minoru Kiuchi, State Minister for Foreign Affairs of Japan; and Sri Sri Ravi Shankar.

The Prime Minister said that the themes chosen for the symposium – avoiding conflicts, moving towards environmental consciousness and free and frank dialogue – “may appear independent but they are not mutually exclusive. In fact, they are mutually dependent and supportive”. Calling climate change a pressing global challenge, the PM said a response to climate change calls for collective human action.

“The Buddhist tradition, in all of its historical and cultural manifestations, encourages greater identification with the natural world because from a Buddhist perspective nothing has a separate existence,” he said. “The impurities in the environment affect the mind, and the impurities of mind also pollute the environment. In order to purify the environment, we have to purify the mind.”

He pointed out that ethical values of personal restraint in consumption and environmental consciousness are deeply rooted in Asian philosophical traditions, especially in Hinduism and Buddhism which along with other faiths such as Confucianism, Taoism and Shintoism have undertaken greater responsibility to protect the environment. “Hinduism and Buddhism with their well-defined treatises on Mother Earth can help examine the changes in approach that need to be made.”

Modi said that the present generation has the responsibility of holding in trust the rich natural wealth for future generations. “The issue is not merely about climate change; it is about climate justice,” he said. He spoke of the need to shift from an ideological approach to a philosophic one. “The essence of philosophy is that it is not a closed thought, while ideology is a closed one. So philosophy not only allows dialogue but it is a perpetual search for truth through dialogue.”

Advocating dialogue which produces no anger or retribution, Modi said that one of the greatest examples of such dialogue was the one between Adi Sankaracharya and Mandana Mishra, a debate whose significance has educated and edified many generations of Indians. The PM related that Adi Sankaracharya wanted to establish through dialogue and debate with the highest authority on ritualism that rituals were not necessary for attaining ‘mukti’, whereas Mandana Mishra wanted to prove that Sankara was wrong in dismissing rituals.

“This was how, in ancient India, debates on sensitive issues between scholars avoided such issues being settled in streets. Adi Sankara and Mandana Mishra held a debate and Sankara won. But the more important point is not the debate itself but how was the debate was conducted. It is a fascinating story that will ever remain one of the highest forms of debate for all times for humanity,” he said.

Filed Under: Latest Tagged With: Adi Shankara, Buddhist, Climate Change, climate justice, faith, Hindu, India, Narendra Modi, philosophy, religion

A district lab for solar in India

August 12, 2015 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

A 5MW grid-connected solar power plant in Jodhpur district, Rajasthan. Photo: MNRE

A 5MW grid-connected solar power plant in Jodhpur district, Rajasthan. Photo: MNRE

In the district of Chitradurga, Karnataka, at the edge of the town of Challakere, stands a project run by the Bangalore-based Indian Institute of Science (IISC) which is a test array for concentrated solar power. Rows of shallow parabolic troughs, made of specially coated aluminum, stretch for more than 300 metres. Above them are water pipes set to catch sunlight reflected from the troughs. When the project begins operation in a few weeks, the water in the pipes will be heated to 200 °C. The hot water will go to a heat exchanger attached to a small turbine that will produce 100 kilowatts of electricity.

A part of the Solar Energy Research Institute for India and the United States (SERIIUS), and primarily funded by the state government of Karnataka, this small solar array will be used to test various reflective materials and heat-transfer fluids (including, for instance, molten salt in addition to water) from multiple manufacturers. Dozens of small wireless sensors will collect data and send it via the Internet to a dashboard at IISC, where it can be analysed and catalogued. The objective is to find the combinations of components that best suit conditions in India.

ICP_solar_challakere_mapThe Solar Energy Research Institute for India and the United States (SERIIUS), co-led by the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), USA. The SERIIUS programme is to develop and prepare “emerging and revolutionary solar electricity technologies” which can be used by the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Energy Mission and the American Department of Energy’s SunShot Initiative. SERIIUS is planned to accelerate the development of solar electric technologies by lowering the cost per watt of photovoltaics (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP).

The BJP government has pledged to create dozens of ‘ultra mega solar power parks’ of 500 megawatts and above to feed power to the national electricity grid. The government has said that energy policies such as those represented by the Challakere concentrated solar power experiment will reduce annual carbon dioxide emissions by 550 million tons. [This article was first published in the MIT Technology Review and can be found in full here.]

Filed Under: Reports & Comment Tagged With: Bangalore, concentrated solar, India, KarnatakaIISC, NREL, photovoltaic, PV, SERIIUS, solar, USA

A monsoon in more than two halves

August 4, 2015 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

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Less rain for the remaining two months of the typical monsoon season of four months, but an overall season average that remains as it was forecast in June. This is the confusing monsoon update issued by the Earth System Science Organization (ESSO), the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) and the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

There are aspects of IMD’s treatment of the monsoon season that need correction in our view. One is the long range forecast and its updates. Specific to this update, we are at the halfway stage of what is typically considered the four month monsoon (this too needs revision, as April and May rains were not the usual ‘unseasonal’ passing showers). However, any downward revision of the rainfall average for August and September ought to be an overall downward revision of the season, particularly as June-July have seen very uneven rain.

Consider the highlights of the updated monsoon forecast:

* Quantitatively, the rainfall over the country as a whole during the second half of the season (August to September) is likely to be 84% of LPA with a model error of ±8%.
* The rainfall during August is likely to be 90 ± 9% of LPA as was forecasted in June.
* The season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 88% of LPA with a model error of ±4% as was forecasted in June.

ICP_imd_points_20150804We make our criticism constructively, for a significant amount of the material India Climate Portal puts out through our website and our twitter account is taken from the public products released by IMD, ISRO and the Ministry of Earth Sciences, and we fully appreciate the quality of work and commitment of these agencies.

The national mean rainfall (“country as a whole”, as the IMD forecasts call it) must be abandoned as it does not represent the meteorological diversity of a very large country. Each of the 36 met sub-divisions is affected in different ways by the El Nino Southern Oscillation, the Indian Ocean dipole, the Madden-Julian Oscillation and other hemispheric phenomena.

There is no need for this simplification, which in fact achieves the opposite of timely accuracy.
The media in particular (television and radio, print, online) look for an overall message and, without guidance from authorities, picks up ‘top line’ messages that are of little or no use at the district and taluka level, and also for towns and cities. The question for IMD is rather: how will variability in monsoon together with the strengthening El Nino affect local outlooks for August to October. That is why we advocate monthly outlooks for the 36 met sub-divisions, to begin in May and to run until October (that is, half the year and not a third of the year), primarily to prepare local administrations for all possible scenarios.

There is no reason why this cannot be the approach. The Ministry of Earth Sciences coordinates the observation network (satellites included, and our agencies ISRO and NRSC are heavily involved), the IMD uses these data together with a very extensive network of weather stations all over India. The output is excellent quality and in the public domain. Because the meteorological services in India have historically been designed to aid and guide agriculture and cultivation, the agri-met bulletins, alerts and products are copious. Hence IMD/MoES listens to the needs of the agricultural departments and, more recently, disaster management agencies. Unfortunately, the interface with public is still minimal, which this central government can also easily remedy.

Filed Under: Latest, Monsoon 2015 Tagged With: 2015, climate, earth sciences, El Nino, forecast, IMD, India, ISRO, monsoon

Two years of India’s weather watcher

July 28, 2015 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

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We wish Insat-3D a very happy second birthday and warmly congratulate the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) on this anniversary.

Insat-3D completed two successful years in orbit on 26 July 2015. The Advanced Weather Satellite is designed for enhanced meteorological observations and monitoring of land and ocean surfaces for weather forecasting and disaster warning. Insat-3D is the first Indian geostationary satellite equipped with instruments that provide frequent good quality atmospheric profiles (temperature, humidity) over the Indian landmass and adjoining areas.

Thanks to the coordination between ISRO and the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), we at India Climate Portal make heavy and frequent use of the many observational products, all free in the public domain, to inform you about weather and climate.

icp-insat3d-detailInsat-3D provides us high quality observations for monitoring and predicting of weather events as well as studying our climate. The advanced ‘Imager’ and ‘Sounder’ on the satellite provide a wide range of atmospheric products such as cloud coverage images, atmospheric winds, sea and land surface temperatures, humidity, quantitative rainfall, earth’s radiation, atmospheric profiles, ozone, atmospheric stability parameters, fog, snow, aerosols. These products are immensely helpful in monitoring day-to-day weather and prediction of extreme events like tropical cyclone, thunderstorm, cloud burst and heat waves.

The ‘Imager’ has completed 25,733 scans and ‘Sounder’ has completed 14,866 scans until the end of May 2015. The Insat-3D spacecraft was dedicated to the country at the National Satellite Meteorological Center (NCMC), India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi on 15 January 2014. An indigenously designed and developed Insat-3D Meteorological Data Processing System processes all data transmitted by the Imager and Sounder. The data archival and dissemination is through IMD, New Delhi and the Meteorological and Oceanographic Satellite Data Archival Centre (MOSDAC, at Space Applications Centre, Ahmedabad).

A number of Insat-3D observations and derived products are being used in models operated by national weather prediction agencies like the IMD and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Prediction (NCMRWF). Moreover, the European Centrer for Medium range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMET) plan to use Insat-3D derived data in their global models.

As always, the ISRO family, staff, engineers, scientists and technicians excel at what they do best. In tandem with the committed and dilligent meteorologists of the IMD, they have given us free information, as good as the best the world can offer, so that we understand our Bharat better.

Filed Under: Current Tagged With: earth observation, earth science, forecast, India, insat, ISRO, satellite

Health now part of PM’s Council on Climate Change

July 21, 2015 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

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The Prime Minister’s Council on Climate Change has included a new Mission on Climate Change and Health. A National Expert Group on Climate Change and Health has been constituted by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare to address the issues related to adverse effects of climate change on human health.

According to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, there is increasing concern in India over the effects of climate change on human health. Climate change affects the social and environmental determinants of health and weather events such as storms, floods, cyclones amplify the spread of vector-borne diseases, and the spread of food- and water-borne diseases.

There are complex interactions between both causes and effects. Ecological processes, such as impacts on biodiversity and changes in disease vectors, and social dynamics, can amplify these risks. Graphic: Lancet

There are complex interactions between both causes and effects. Ecological processes, such as impacts on biodiversity and changes in disease vectors, and social dynamics, can amplify these risks. Graphic: Lancet

Work under this new mission is expected to complement running initiatives such as the National Programme for Prevention and Control of Cancer, Diabetes, Cardiovascular Diseases and Stroke (NPCDCS). This programme focuses on prevention through awareness generation, behavior and life-style changes, early diagnosis and treatment of persons with high levels of risk factors and their referral to higher facilities for appropriate management. Funding is provided for human resources, infrastructure, early screening, and treatment as well as for Information, Education & Communication (IEC) activities.

India and China suffer over USD 1.89 trillion annually in terms of the value of lives lost and ill health caused from air pollution, according to a major recent report which has underlined how climate change threatens to undermine half a century of progress in global health.

An overview of the links between greenhouse gas emissions, climate change, and health. Social responses also ameliorate some risks through adaptive actions. Graphic: Lancet

An overview of the links between greenhouse gas emissions, climate change, and health. Social responses also ameliorate some risks through adaptive actions. Graphic: Lancet

The analysis by the Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change concluded that the benefits to health resulting from slashing fossil fuel use are so large that tackling global warming also presents the greatest global opportunity to improve people’s health in the 21st century. The Commission’s work was supported by the UN World Health Organisation.

The current trajectory, of average global temperature warming by 4 Celsius has very serious and potentially catastrophic effects for human health and human survival. The Commission said this must be seen as a medical emergency. The comprehensive analysis sets out the direct risks to health, including heatwaves, floods and droughts, and indirect – but no less deadly – risks, including air pollution, spreading diseases, famines and mental ill-health. A rapid phase-out of coal from the global energy mix is among the commission’s top recommendations, given the millions of premature deaths from air pollution this would prevent.

“The effects of climate change are being felt today, and future projections represent an unacceptably high and potentially catastrophic risk to human health,” said the report. “The implications of climate change for a global population of 9 billion people threatens to undermine the last half century of gains in development and global health. The direct effects of climate change include increased heat stress, floods, drought, and increased frequency of intense storms, with the indirect threatening population health through adverse changes in air pollution, the spread of disease vectors, food insecurity and under-nutrition, displacement, and mental ill health.”

Filed Under: Reports & Comment Tagged With: Climate Change, disease, fossil fuel, global warming, health, India, ministry, population, risk, WHO

The state of the climate, scarier than ever before

July 20, 2015 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

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Most essential indicators of Earth’s changing climate continued to reflect trends of a warming planet, with several markers such as rising land and ocean temperature, sea levels and greenhouse gases setting new records.

The latest report which explains these indicators, compiled by the NOAA Center for Weather and Climate at the National Centers for Environmental Information is based on contributions from 413 scientists from 58 countries. It provides a detailed update on global climate indicators, notable weather events, and other data collected by environmental monitoring stations and instruments located on land, water, ice, and in space.

The report represents data from around the globe and gives us a picture of what happened in 2014. The variety of indicators shows us how our climate is changing, not just in temperature but from the depths of the oceans to the outer atmosphere. The report’s climate indicators show patterns, changes and trends of the global climate system. Examples of the indicators include various types of greenhouse gases; temperatures throughout the atmosphere, ocean, and land; cloud cover; sea level; ocean salinity; sea ice extent; and snow cover.

Key highlights from the report include (get the full report here, find a summary here):

* Greenhouse gases continued to climb: Major greenhouse gas concentrations, including carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, continued to rise during 2014, once again reaching historic high values. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 1.9 ppm in 2014, reaching a global average of 397.2 ppm for the year. This compares with a global average of 354.0 in 1990 when this report was first published just 25 years ago.

* Record temperatures observed near the Earth’s surface: Four independent global datasets showed that 2014 was the warmest year on record. The warmth was widespread across land areas. Europe experienced its warmest year on record, with more than 20 countries exceeding their previous records. Africa had above-average temperatures across most of the continent throughout 2014, Australia saw its third warmest year on record, Mexico had its warmest year on record, and Argentina and Uruguay each had their second warmest year on record. Eastern North America was the only major region to experience below-average annual temperatures.

Surface temperature anomalies in 2014. Image: NOAA Center for Weather and Climate

Surface temperature anomalies in 2014. Image: NOAA Center for Weather and Climate

* Tropical Pacific Ocean moves towards El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions: The El Niño–Southern Oscillation was in a neutral state during 2014, although it was on the cool side of neutral at the beginning of the year and approached warm El Niño conditions by the end of the year. This pattern played a major role in several regional climate outcomes.

* Sea surface temperatures were record high: The globally averaged sea surface temperature was the highest on record. The warmth was particularly notable in the North Pacific Ocean, where temperatures are in part likely driven by a transition of the Pacific decadal oscillation – a recurring pattern of ocean-atmosphere climate variability centered in the region.

* Global upper ocean heat content was record high: Globally, upper ocean heat content reached a record high for the year, reflecting the continuing accumulation of thermal energy in the upper layer of the oceans. Oceans absorb over 90 percent of Earth’s excess heat from greenhouse gas forcing.

* Global sea level was record high: Global average sea level rose to a record high in 2014. This keeps pace with the 3.2 ± 0.4 mm per year trend in sea level growth observed over the past two decades.

* The Arctic continued to warm; sea ice extent remained low: The Arctic experienced its fourth warmest year since records began in the early 20th century. Arctic snow melt occurred 20–30 days earlier than the 1998–2010 average. On the North Slope of Alaska, record high temperatures at 20-meter depth were measured at four of five permafrost observatories. The Arctic minimum sea ice extent reached 1.94 million square miles on September 17, the sixth lowest since satellite observations began in 1979. The eight lowest minimum sea ice extents during this period have occurred in the last eight years.

* The Antarctic showed highly variable temperature patterns; sea ice extent reached record high: Temperature patterns across the Antarctic showed strong seasonal and regional patterns of warmer-than-normal and cooler-than-normal conditions, resulting in near-average conditions for the year for the continent as a whole. The Antarctic maximum sea ice extent reached a record high of 7.78 million square miles on September 20. This is 220,000 square miles more than the previous record of 7.56 million square miles that occurred in 2013. This was the third consecutive year of record maximum sea ice extent.

* Tropical cyclones above average overall: There were 91 tropical cyclones in 2014, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82 storms. The 22 named storms in the Eastern/Central Pacific were the most to occur in the basin since 1992. Similar to 2013, the North Atlantic season was quieter than most years of the last two decades with respect to the number of storms.

Filed Under: Current Tagged With: Arctic, climate, El Nino, ENSO, greenhouse gas, NOAA, sea ice, Southern Oscillation, thermal energy

Monsoon 2015 with India Climate Portal

July 12, 2015 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

ICP_tweetpage_imageThis is our running timeline of tweets with alerts, data and information on monsoon 2015.

Tweets by @Indiaclimate

Filed Under: Latest

Why climate action must beware the fakery of funds

July 4, 2015 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

Residents use a boat to cross flood waters in Kota Bahru on December 28, 2014. Photo: RT / AFP / Mohd Rasfan. Photo by AFP Photo / Mohd Rasfan

Residents use a boat to cross flood waters in Kota Bahru on December 28, 2014. Photo: RT / AFP / Mohd Rasfan. Photo by AFP Photo / Mohd Rasfan

We call upon the Ministry of Environment, Government of India, to stop pursuing the so-called Green Climate Fund as the means with which action to manage climate change can be financially supported. This so-called fund is in the end a means for the Western world – West Europe, Scandinavia, USA with Britain and Canada in tow, Australia and New Zealand, a feckless Japan and ditto South Korea – to maintain the empty but loud institutions they have set up by the dozens in the cause of climate change.

Inter Press Service has reported that the United Nations is seeking 100 billion US dollars per year by 2020 as part of a Green Climate Fund (GCF) “aimed at supporting developing countries strengthen their resilience and help adapt themselves to meet the foreboding challenges”. This is meretricious nonsense. Countries that the UN system, and the agencies of monetary ruin – World Bank, IMF, ADB and the like – call ‘developing’ do not need the prattling office-bearers of a crony international system to advise them. Countries of the South have plentiful intellectual, practical, financial and social resources to deal with climate change and the host of problems the Western countries have burdened our world with.

The Green Climate Fund, says the IPS report, may not be as realistic in its objectives as the Western-OECD alliance pretends but supporters of this Fund (naturally) are more concerned instead with how the target can be reached or neared: naturally because that is how they will derive a continuing relevance and legitimacy – both empty as far as we are concerned – which allows them to run expensive institutions and pay out immodest consultancies that serve only the Western-OECD alliance. Ignored by this glib army is the fact that, beginning from their own austerity-wracked countries, public finance for such profligacy is absent. Still they demand, like fahrenheit Shylocks, public finance for subsidies with which to “attract and leverage private investments”.

A host of ancillary agencies contributes to perpetuating this long-running fraud. Amongst the confused babble of Western-OECD support for the so-called Green Climate Fund can be found three common clauses: one, that developed nations should commit to increasing all public funding flows to 2020; two, that developed countries use new and innovative sources of finance toward the 2020 goal (such as redirected fossil fuel subsidies, carbon market revenues, financial transaction taxes, export credits); three, that all parties should clarify the definition of climate finance and development of methodologies so that accounting and reporting are improved.

These are nothing but cunning gambits advanced as justification for the continuing tenure of the Western-OECD climate-related institutions and their circles of charmed academic and finance cronies. First, developed countries have fallen short of basic overseas aid commitments for the last two generations, never mind climate finance. Under continuing austerity, it is foolish for the UN and its supporters on this subject to still preach in favour of a funding mechanism that rests on Western largesse.

Second, the ‘new and innovative’ has been experimented with for a decade with carbon exchanges and has made no impact (just as ‘deregulated’ energy markets, which are older, have not led to more sensible energy use by consumers or producers). But this is proposed in order to cement the positions of a new trading class, and its banking adjutants, in the area of climate finance. Third, the call for definitions and methodologies is part of the Western-led drive towards normative standards for the world, which will rely on its own Western bureaucracy to enforce the next mutation of trade sanctions on independent-minded countries and Southern country blocs – climate sanctions.

Our message to the profiteers of this true emerging market is: we can see through your ruse and know your game. Stop it now.

– Rahul Goswami

Filed Under: Reports & Comment Tagged With: Britain, carbon market, climate, climate finance, environment, fossil fuel, France, Germany, green climate fund, OECD, overseas aid, subsidies, USA

India pushes solar target up to 100 GW

June 18, 2015 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

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The Union Cabinet has decided that India’s solar power capacity target under the National Solar Mission is to be dramatically revised upwards to reach 100,000 MW (or 100 GW) by 2022. The new solar target of 100 GW is expected to abate over 170 million tonnes of CO2 over its life cycle.

In the first phase, the Government of India is to provide capital subsidy to promote solar capacity addition in the country. This capital subsidy will be provided for rooftop solar projects in various cities and towns for projects to be developed through the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) and for decentralized generation through small solar projects.

MNRE_solar2Solar power projects are also to be developed using what the government calls a “bundling mechanism” together with thermal power with investments envisaged to come from large public sector undertakings and also from independent power producers. State governments meanwhile have also come out with state-specific solar policies to promote solar capacity addition.

The statement by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) has said: “Solar power can contribute to the long term energy security of India, and reduce dependence on fossil fuels that puts a strain on foreign reserves and the ecology as well.” The solar manufacturing sector in India will benefit with this long term trajectory of solar capacity addition.

This scaling up plan for solar power has a target of 40 GW through decentralised solar power generation in the form of grid connected rooftop projects. Coordination is required, says the central government, so that the land areas required for the largest solar farms are unculturable land, for solar photo-voltaic units to be encouraged, and for large government buildings to be identified for rooftop solar projects, for the Ministry of Urban Development to make mandatory the provision of roof-top solar and 10% generation of renewable energy (presumably per building unit).

Financial incentives envisaged include giving the status of ‘infrastructure’ for solar projects, raising tax-free solar bonds, including roof-top solar units within housing loans provided by scheduled banks. It is also foreseen that amendments to the Electricity Act will be needed so that renewable purchase obligations and renewable generation obligations can be enforced.

The National Solar Mission was begun in 2009 with an initial target for grid-connected solar projects of 20,000 MW by 2022. In the last two to three years, the sector has witnessed rapid development with installed solar capacity increasing from 18 MW to about 3,800 MW during 2010-15. The price of solar energy has come down significantly from Rs 17.90 per unit in 2010 to under Rs 7 per unit today.

Filed Under: Latest Tagged With: decentralised, electricity, grid, India, photo voltaic, power, PV, solar, Solar Mission

Earth, sea, sky, El Niño

June 17, 2015 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

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Eight-and-a-half degrees north of the equator is where the peninsula of India meets the ocean. Our country stretches across 29 degrees of latitude but it is in the vast watery realm south of Kanyakumari that the Indian summer monsoon is brewed, slowly and inevitably. Over twice as many lines of latitude stretches the Indian Ocean, its equatorial belt and then its southern reaches, which continue into the deep and icy girdles of water around Antarctica.

From this vast aqueous quarter-planet the vapours are gathered, and these swirls of airborne water then look for the winds to transport them, first towards the mid-southern latitudes (Madagascar lies astride these, but they are are still a full ten degrees south of the lower coasts of Java) and then in the equatorial trough that spins like a motor. From here these enormous masses of water – half again the size of India at times – are hurled as if in slow motion towards our western coast.

And so to gauge imperfectly whether the wind lords of the farther Indian Ocean have decided to be kind to us we rely nowadays on our eyes in the sky, our weather satellites. What they tell us now is coded in electronic chirps made intelligible by the meteorologists and climatologists of the Indian Meteorological Department, the Ministry of Earth Sciences, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting.

Our Indian summer monsoon is amongst the most complex of the planet’s earth-sea-sky interactions. We are told by the scientists, when they disengage from their equations, that the land retains a shorter climate ‘memory’ than the ocean. We are introduced to meridonal termperature gradients and seasonal migration of the inter-tropical convergence zone.

There is an abundance of exotic nomenclature: the Mascarene High, the orographic influence of the East African Highlands, the momentum of the Somali Jet, the ventilation effect of poleward precipitation. And then there is the hot star of the equatorial deeps, El Niño himself, whose domain is the central Pacific and who, when he awakes, demands that the equatorial Indian Ocean obey. He has awoken this year, but the ocean named after us is as unruly as ever.

When will El Niño’s whip really crack? The best models of the climate scientists cannot truly tell us. They and their teraflop calculating machines can only posit what is measured, and what remains unmeasured is still far greater. What we do however know about El Niño is that he does tend to suppress the monsoon. But this year’s El Niño may not resemble one of an earlier year, for where El Niño arises and rules is as important as when. Where the ocean surface warms up (several thousand kilometres parallel to the equator, several hundred kilometres wide) unusually strong rising air flows result.

When these flows descend (as they eventually must) they are generally dry and stable, and so the opposite of conditions needed for or monsoon rains. If they descend far away from India (as happened in 1997-98 when they dropped back into the eastern Pacific) our ocean will deliver and our monsoon will roll in. If they descend in the middle of the Pacific (which happened in 2002) our monsoon will resent the interference and hide. But El Niño is awake and pacing the Pacific. We must hope he does not look too far westwards. (RG)

Filed Under: Blogs, Monsoon 2015 Tagged With: Climate Change, earth science, El Nino, ENSO, India, Indian Ocean, monsoon, planet

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Between contemplation and climate

Whether or not the USA, Europe, the Western world, the industrialised Eastern world (China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan), adhere to or not their paltry promises about being more responsible concerning the factors that lead to climate change, is of very little concern to us. We have never set any store by international agreements on climate […]

The ‘Hindu’, ignorant about weather and climate, but runs down IMD

We find objectionable the report by ‘The Hindu’ daily newspaper accusing the India Meteorological Department of scientific shortcoming (‘IMD gets its August forecast wrong’, 1 September 2016). The report claims that the IMD in June 2016 had forecast that rains for August would be more than usual but that the recorded rain was less than […]

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