Climate portal editor, Author at The India Climate Observatory

The need to scale up renewables

June 10, 2014 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

The global share of renewable energy can reach as high as 36% by 2030 with technologies that are already available today as well as with improved energy efficiency and energy access. Going further than this will require thinking “outside the box”, with early retirement of conventional energy facilities, technology breakthroughs and consumer-driven societal change.

REmap 2030, the report prepared by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), through broad consultations and engagement around the world, provides a global roadmap for doubling the share of renewables in the energy mix. This full report of REmap 2030 provides insights into five specific areas:
1. Pathways for doubling the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix based on the national plans of 26 REmap countries and the additional REmap Options, and how to go beyond doubling based on different strategies represented by the RE+ Options.
2. Socio-economic impacts related to doubling the global share of renewable energy.
3. Current situation of renewable energy markets in the power, district heat and end-use (industry, buildings, transport) sectors as well as developments between 2010 and 2030 if all REmap Options are implemented.
4. National policy proposals to improve the existing policy framework.
5. Opportunities for international co-operation of governments for doubling the global share of renewable energy.

In determining the potential to scale up renewables, the study not only focuses on technologies, but also on the availability of financing, political will, skills, and the role of planning. The study finds that doubling of the share of renewable energy in total final energy consumption by 2030 would be nearly cost-neutral. When external costs that can be avoided by replacing conventional energy are taken into account, this ambitious transition even results in cost savings.

The Western Ghats and its two reports

June 6, 2014 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

The Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF) has decided to reduce the area of the ecologically sensitive zone (ESZ) in the Western Ghats. The Ministry has issued a draft notification keeping the boundaries of ESZ in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu the same as those proposed by the Kasturirangan Committee. The draft notification declares 56,825 square kilometres as ESZ in the six Western Ghats states.

However, as the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) has pointed out, the earlier Gadgil panel (here is the link to the full Gadgil report) identified the entire Ghats as ESZ, creating three categories of protection regimes and listed activities that would be allowed in each based on the level of ecological richness and land use. On the other hand the Kasturirangan panel used a different method. It removed cash crop plantations like rubber, agricultural fields and settlements from ESZ.

It did so by using a finer remote sensing technology. In this way, the Kasturirangan report’s area of ESZ is 37% of the Western Ghats, still a very large 60,000 hectares but less than half the 137,000 hectares proposed by Gadgil.

At last a climate change ministry

June 5, 2014 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

The Minister of State for Information and Broadcasting (Independent Charge), Environment, Forest and Climate Change (Independent Charge) and Parliamentary Affairs, Shri Prakash Javadekar presenting a sapling to the Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi, in New Delhi on June 05, 2014. Image: PIB

India’s Ministry of Environment and Forests is now the Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change. Minister of State Prakash Javadekar has taken charge of the ministry and pushed through the change.

As reported by CMS ENVIS Centre on Media & Environment, Javadekar’s past association with GLOBE India (Global Legislators’ Organisation for Balanced Environment) is likely to be handy for him while dealing with the issue of climate change in the ministry. GLOBE India – the country chapter of GLOBE International – is a cross-party group of legislators working to play critical role in guiding public policy on environment and develop laws on climate change.

Javadekar’s task is a difficult one that requires consistent public participation, for the NDA government is expected to bring in policies to protect environment without compromising on economic development and the rights of local communities. The ministry will also have to immediately come out with an institutional set-up – national environment regulator – to streamline regulatory procedures as desired by the Supreme Court.

At present, environmental, natural resources and climate change matters are being handled by a number of authorities at the Centre and state levels which are separately responsible for various types assessments and clearances: environmental, forest, wildlife, coastal and air\water pollution.

ENSO, ISMR, EQUINOO and rain

June 5, 2014 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

An editorial in the journal Current Science (25 May 2014) has helpfully linked three phenomena that will affect the monsoon of 2014. The first is the El Niño (and the El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO) over the Pacific Ocean, considered unfavourable for us and the monsoon. The editorial has pointed out that El Niño has featured in the news already, with likely impacts being considered such as “a decrease of about 1.75% of GDP”. The question the editorial asks is: how reliable is the forecast of an impending El Niño? When it does occur, will it bring a deficit monsoon or a drought inevitably?

The second phenomenon is the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (abbreviated to ISMR by those who study climate for the sub-continent). The Current Science editorial makes an important point which is, studying the relationship between the sufficiency of the monsoon, the GDP and food-grain production during 1950–2004 reveals that the magnitude of the adverse impact of deficit rainfall is much larger than the magnitude of the positive impact of above average rainfall. This means that India being able to predict the possibility of drought (and therefore factors that influence it such as the ENSO) is more important than being able to predict a good monsoon.

The editorial has said that the ISMR “is significantly correlated with this ENSO index, with the relationship explaining 29% of the variance of monsoon rainfall”. Thus the warm phase of ENSO, which is characterised by more rainfall over the equatorial central Pacific, is associated with a decrease in rainfall over India. Now that we know this, what are the implications for monsoon 2014? By April, the warm phase of ENSO has already commenced with enhanced convection/rainfall over the central Pacific and all the models predict that it will amplify and persist until the end of the summer monsoon (the models vary in how they look at linked phenomena and the specific conclusions but agree broadly that El Niño conditions are here.

While the editorial has said that by “mid-June we should get a better idea of whether an El Niño is imminent”, the already unfavourable ENSO conditions mean that the probability of drought has gone up to just over 30%. If an El Niño does fully develop by end-June, the chance of a drought increases to 70%.

The explanation becomes more complete with the assessment of the third phenomenon. This is the Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO). In 2003, it was discovered that in addition to ENSO, EQUINOO plays an important role in the variations, from one year to the next, of the ISMR. There is what is called “a see-saw between a state with enhanced rainfall over western equatorial Indian Ocean and suppressed rainfall over eastern equatorial Indian Ocean” (and its opposite). How this becomes manifest from one year to the next is considered by climatologists to account for about 19% of the variance of the monsoon rainfall.

The equation that we will have to finish writing and balance in the next few weeks is this. During the Indian summer monsoon season, ENSO and EQUINOO are poorly correlated – an ENSO unfavourable to us can be counter-balanced to some degree by a favourable EQUINDO. When both are unfavourable to us, drought has occurred. But the records also show that twice recently, in 1963 and in 1997, a favourable EQUINDO has protected us from the harmful impact of an El Niño. We need, in short, to be watching closely multiple large climatic phenomena every day until at least end-June. Is the IMD up to the job?

Holding our breath in India’s cities

May 10, 2014 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

On the PM 2.5 scale, India’s cities are easily amongst the world’s riskiest places in which to live

The findings by the World Health Organisation on the quality of air in India’s cities are the strongest signal yet to our government (old and new, for the results of the 2014 general election will become known on 16 May) that economic ‘growth’ is a weapon that kills citizens through respiratory tract diseases and infections.

Amongst the 124 Indian cities in the new WHO database on urban air quality worldwide, one city only is at the WHO guideline for PM2.5 and one city only is just above the guidelines for PM10. As a bloc, the quality of air in India’s cities are at alarmingly high levels above the guidelines, above Asian averages (poor as they are, and even considering China’s recklessly poor record) and above world averages.

This is not a singular matter. Already, the WHO has warned that India has a high environmental disease burden, with a significant number of deaths annually associated with environmental risk factors. The Global Burden of Disease for 2010 ranked ambient air pollution as the fifth largest killer in India, three places behind household air pollution. Taken cumulatively, household and ambient air pollution constitute the single greatest risk factor that cause ill health -leading to preventable deaths – in India.

The WHO database contains results of ambient (outdoor) air pollution monitoring. Air quality is represented by ‘annual mean concentration’ (a yearly average) of fine particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5, which means particles smaller than 10 or 2.5 microns). The WHO guideline values are: for PM2.5 – 10 micrograms/m3 annual mean; for PM10 – 20 micrograms/m3 annual mean. The two charts show just how dangerously above the WHO guidelines the air quality of our cities are.

Without urgent and stringent curbs on the consumption of fuel, Indian cities’ PM 10 measures will worsen

Half of India’s urban population lives in cities where particulate pollution levels exceed the standards considered safe. A third of this population breathes air having critical levels of particulate pollution, which is considered to be extremely harmful. “We are also running out of ‘clean’ places. Small and big cities are now joined in the pain of pollution,” commented Down To Earth, the environment magazine.

Typically, the official Indian response was to question the WHO findings (these were carried out in the same way in 91 countries, and we don’t hear the other 90 complaining) and to reject them. The reason is easy to spot. Global offender Number One for air pollution amongst world cities is New Delhi, a city that has been pampered as the showcase for what the Congress government myopically calls “the India growth story”.

Hence government scientists are reported to have quickly said that WHO overestimated air pollution levels in New Delhi. “Delhi is not the dirtiest… certainly it is not that dangerous as projected,” said A B Akolkar, a member secretary of the Central Pollution Control Board.

The same recidivist line was parroted by Gufran Beig, chief project scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (which otherwise does good work on the monsoon and on climate change). He is reported as having said that New Delhi’s air quality was better than Beijing’s, and that pollution levels in winter are relatively higher in New Delhi because of extreme weather events. Beig said: “The value which has been given in this (WHO) report is overestimating (pollution levels) for Delhi … the reality is that the yearly average is around 110 (micrograms).”

The WHO database has captured measurements from monitoring stations located in urban background, residential, commercial and mixed areas. The world’s average PM10 levels by region range from 26 to 208 micrograms/m3, with a world average of 71 micrograms/m3.

PM affects more people than any other pollutant. The major components of PM are sulfate, nitrates, ammonia, sodium chloride, black carbon, mineral dust and water. It consists of a complex mixture of solid and liquid particles of organic and inorganic substances suspended in the air. The most health-damaging particles are those with a diameter of 10 microns or less, which can penetrate and lodge deep inside the lungs. Chronic exposure to particles contributes to the risk of developing cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, as well as of lung cancer.

Central and state governments show no inclination to join the obvious dots. These are, that with more fuels being burned to satisfy the electricity and transport needs of a middle class now addicted to irresponsible consumption, the ‘India growth story’ is what we are choking to death on.

About the India Climate Portal

May 1, 2014 by Climate portal editor 4 Comments

The India Climate Portal promotes critical thinking about and fresh analysis of climate change and its impacts on India and the South Asian region. This approach has come about through grassroots work, civic dialogue and engagements with society, by the project supporters. The objective is to draft a strong domestic agenda that will realistically determine the risks of a changing climate while identifying opportunities for equitable transformations that enable us to live sustainably with the impacts.

In the pages of the India Climate Portal you will find a number of resources including publications such as the monthly India Climate Watch bulletin, the annual Who’s Who in Climate Change in India, the Discussion Paper series; and films such as In Good Company – profiling corporate leadership on climate change in India, and City Dialogues.

This project is an effort to spread awareness and promote action on climate change in India, to help build a new cooperation and sensibility on climate change. To partner with the India Climate Portal, to share your initiatives and reports, to collaborate on programmes and cooperate on studies and events, please write to Viva Kermani [ vivakermani at gmail dot com ].

Weather shock in Kashmir

April 2, 2014 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

The Valley of Kashmir, satellite image from National Remote Sensing Centre/Bhuvan

Snow up to several feet deep descended on most of the valley of Kashmir in the first two weeks of March, whipping up blizzards and triggering avalanches on the steeper mountain slopes. With at least 17 deaths reported, around 2,000 homes damaged, roads blocked and electricity disrupted in many parts of the state, authorities struggled to rescue people in snowbound areas and restore essential services, as reported by The Third Pole.

The damage to agricultural and horticultural property has yet to be reckoned, said officials, and could run into tens of crores of rupees. The airport in the Jammu and Kashmir summer capital Srinagar had to be closed and highways were blocked. The Himalayan state of Jammu and Kashmir receives 30% of its annual rainfall in the winter. The average rainfall, calculated over the winters of 1951 to 2000, is 183 millimetres (mm). This year, the Indian Meteorological Department forecast that Jammu and Kashmir would see below average rainfall for the months of January through March. And then, between March 1-12, the state received 122 mm of rain, far higher than the normal 56 mm.

Several studies indicate that most parts of the Himalayas are getting warmer at a rate faster than the average warming of the earth. Patterns of rain and snow vary throughout the mountains as weather is controlled by dramatic changes in topography and the presence of distinct microclimates in many parts.

A meteorological department official in Srinagar added that the pattern of rainfall and snowfall was erratic while insufficient precipitation also leaves farmers and others worried. Farmers from southern parts of Kashmir reported that more than 80% of almond crop this year had suffered heavy losses due to the damage caused to almond blossoms. Apple growers in the apple rich belts of Shopian and Sopore said that thousands of apple trees had crumbled under the heavy snow, thus ending any hopes of a good crop. “Around 15% of the apple trees have suffered damage due to the heavy snowfall,” Amin Mir, president of the Kashmir Fruit Growers’ Association, told thethirdpole.net.

IPCC to world: stop and shrink, or perish

April 2, 2014 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

“There is increasing recognition of the value of social, institutional, and ecosystem-based measures and of the extent of constraints to adaptation”: IPCC

The language is clear and blunt. The message continues to be, as it was in 2013 September, that our societies must change urgently and dramatically. The evidence marshalled is, when compared with the last assessment report of 2007, mountainous and all of it points directly at the continuing neglect of our societies to use less and use wisely.

This Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) comes seven years after the last. It has said that observed impacts of climate change have already affected agriculture, human health, ecosystems on land and in the oceans, water supplies, and livelihoods. These impacts are occurring from the tropics to the poles, from small islands to large continents, and from the wealthiest countries to the poorest.

“Climate change has negatively affected wheat and maize yields for many regions and in the global aggregate. Effects on rice and soybean yield have been smaller in major production regions and globally, with a median change of zero across all available data, which are fewer for soy compared to the other crops. Observed impacts relate mainly to production aspects of food security rather than access or other components of food security. Since AR4, several periods of rapid food and cereal price increases following climate extremes in key producing regions indicate a sensitivity of current markets to climate extremes among other factors.”

Widespread impacts in a changing world. Global patterns of impacts in recent decades attributed to climate change. Impacts are shown at a range of geographic scales. Symbols indicate categories of attributed impacts, the relative contribution of climate change (major or minor) to the observed impact, and confidence in attribution. Graphic: IPCC

The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) contains contributions from three Working Groups. Working Group I assesses the physical science basis of climate change. Working Group II assesses impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability, while Working Group III assesses the mitigation of climate change. The Synthesis Report draws on the assessments made by all three Working Groups.

The Working Group II AR5 considers the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems, the observed impacts and future risks of climate change, and the potential for and limits to adaptation. The chapters of the report assess risks and opportunities for societies, economies, and ecosystems around the world.

“Differences in vulnerability and exposure arise from non-climatic factors and from multidimensional inequalities often produced by uneven development processes. These differences shape differential risks from climate change. People who are socially, economically, culturally, politically, institutionally, or otherwise marginalised are especially vulnerable to climate change and also to some adaptation and mitigation responses. This heightened vulnerability is rarely due to a single cause. Rather, it is the product of intersecting social processes that result in inequalities in socioeconomic status and income, as well as in exposure. Such social processes include, for example, discrimination on the basis of gender, class, ethnicity, age, and (dis)ability.”

The Working Group 2 report has said that impacts from recent climate-related extremes (such as heat waves, droughts, floods, cyclones, and wildfires) reveal significant vulnerability and exposure of some ecosystems and many human systems to current climate variability. The impacts of such climate-related extremes include alteration of ecosystems, disruption of food production and water supply, damage to infrastructure and settlements, morbidity and mortality, and consequences for mental health and human well-being. The WG2 has starkly said that for countries at all levels of development, these impacts are consistent with a significant lack of preparedness for current climate variability in some sectors.

Unseasonal rain, hailstorms trigger farmers’ suicides in Maharashtra

March 22, 2014 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

Farmers’ suicides in rural India now directly connected to weather-related events. When will state governments take protective measures? Photo: ICP / RG

Following the recent bout of unseasonal showers and hailstorms in Maharashtra, sources working closely with the government have said that around 18 farmers have killed themselves between February 22 and March 18, social activists claim the figure could be between 80 and 100 — more than the average for every two months, as reported by The Times of India.

Meanwhile, Maharashtra’s chief minister, Prithviraj Chavan has assured farmers of the area that their plight will be immediately taken into account. He has also appealed to the farmers to not take any ’emotional step’ and has reiterated that the government is acutely aware of destruction that has been brought on by the untimely rain. The state cabinet has called an urgent meeting on Wednesday to discuss relief and rehabilitation for hailstorm-hit areas.

Kishor Tiwari, an activist claimed that around 100 farmers had committed suicides across Maharashtra following unseasonal showers and hailstorms. “The situation after the hailstorm is really damaging. Three days of hailstorm has completed damaged the crop of horsegram, wheat and jowar. Earlier bouts of unseasonal showers had damaged the soyabean crop. So it’s an irreparable loss to the farmers for which government help is too late and too little,” Tiwari said.

First India-China joint study on climate

March 22, 2014 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

A woman walks against sand and dust storm in Zhongning county, Northwest China’s Ningxia Hui autonomous region in March 2014. Photo: Xinhua

The pre-launch report on the first collaborative India-China study on climate change to be released in Beijing on Monday will generate interest among policy makers and climate watchers, as reported by Hindustan Times.

The title “Low Carbon Development in China and India — Issues and Strategies” is the result of a first-time collaboration between key research institutes in China and India working on issues related to climate change.

“The study examines the main factors in low carbon development – financing, low carbon technologies and on-the-ground implementation – and will encourage greater cooperation between the world’s two largest countries,” said an UNDP official.

China and India are both trying to fight global warming; the low carbon study illustrates some of these efforts and at the same time illustrates some of the current challenges facing both countries, the official added.

The study will help both China and India to share experiences, promote knowledge exchange. At the recently concluded annual session of the National People’s Congress, Premier Li Keqiang, talked about launching a war on pollution in China where coal accounts for a massive share of energy generation.