Commentary, action and research on climate and development in India
CSM announces the premier of its documentary “In Good Company” – a film about climate change and corporate leadership in India. On the eve of a major new global agreement, this film challenges India to take leadership and brings a new force into view. India’s corporate leaders and entrepreneurs who are poised to take the country into a green future and change the shape of business.
click this image for more!
Precisely at a time when India is confronted with development imperatives25, we will also be severely impacted by climate change. Like other developing countries, several sections of the Indian populace will not be able to buffer themselves from impacts2,8 of global warming. With close economic ties to natural resources and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water and forestry, India may face a major threat15, and require serious adaptive capacity to combat climate change. As a developing country, India can little afford the risks and economic backlashes that industrialized nations can. With 27.5% of the population still below the poverty line, reducing vulnerability to the impacts of climate change is essential15.
It is in India’s interest to ensure that the world moves towards a low carbon future. Many studies have underscored the nation’s vulnerability to climate change8. With changes in key climate variables, namely temperature, precipitation and humidity, crucial sectors like agriculture and rural development are likely to be affected in a major way.
Impacts are already being seen in unprecedented heat waves, cyclones, floods, salinisation of the coastline and effects on agriculture, fisheries and health8.
India is home to a third of the world’s poor, and climate change will hit this section of society the hardest. Set to be the most populous nation in the world by 2045, the economic, social and ecological price of climate change will be massive.
The future impacts of climate change, identified by the Government of India’s National Communications (NATCOM) in 2004 include25:
- Decreased snow cover, affecting snow-fed and glacial systems such as the Ganges and Bramhaputra. 70% of the summer flow of the Ganges comes from meltwater
- Erratic monsoon with serious effects on rain-fed agriculture, peninsular rivers, water and power supply
- Drop in wheat production by 4-5 million tones, with even a 1ºC rise in temperature
- Rising sea levels causing displacement along one of the most densely populated coastlines in the world, threatened freshwater sources and mangrove ecosystems
- Increased frequency and intensity of floods. Increased vulnerability of people in coastal, arid and semi-arid zones of the country
- Studies indicate that over 50% of India’s forests are likely to experience shift in forest types, adversely impacting associated biodiversity, regional climate dynamics as well as livelihoods based on forest products.
India stands to lose on too many counts to allow a ‘climate-politics-as-usual’ scenario. Therefore, positive engagement with global climate negotiations at the next UNFCCC meeting in December 2009 is crucial8.
India’s accelerating emissions
Although not an emitter historically, India currently has one of the fastest growing economies in the world. With a government target of 8% GDP to achieve developmental priorities16, a share of one sixth of the global population, and changing consumption patterns, India’s emissions are set to increase dramatically.
Growing at an almost breakneck pace, and guzzling coal, gas and oil in large quantities4, we are today, the fourth largest emitter of greenhouse gases worldwide. Although our per-capita emissions are among the lowest in the world, our growth rates imply that the past is no predictor of the future8. The most recent IPCC report suggests that India will experience the greatest increase in energy and greenhouse gas emissions in the world if it sustains a high annual economic growth rate. The International energy Agency predicts that India will become the third largest emitter of greenhouse gases by as early as 2015.
India imports large quantities of fossil fuels to meet its energy needs, and the burning of fossil fuels alone accounts for 83% of India’s carbon dioxide emissions. Nearly 70% of our electricity supply comes from coal.
Although India has maintained its clear economic and social development imperatives, the government recognizes that climate change is an serious problem, and that business as usual is no longer the way forward.
India on climate change
India has committed to actively engage in multilateral negotiations in the UNFCCC, in a ‘positive and forward-looking manner’15. The government recognizes that ‘global warming will affect us seriously’ but maintains that the ‘most important adaptation measure to climate change is development itself’8. This has ensured that India’s position at the UNFCC has stubbornly remained ‘common but differentiated responsibility’. Under the UNFCCC agreement itself, India is not subject to any binding emission reduction targets until the year 2012.
In spite of this guarded stand, India has ‘declared’ that even as it pursues its social and development objectives, it will not allow its per capita emissions to exceed those of developed countries. The 11th 5-year plan does make headway in reducing energy intensity per unit of GHG by 20 percent while boosting cleaner and renewable energy8.
In June 2008, the Prime minister released the much awaited National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC). The NAPCC outlines a strategy by which India will adapt to climate change, while maintaining a high growth rate, protecting poor and vulnerable sections of society and achieving national growth objectives11. It focuses on eight areas intended to deliver maximal benefits to development and climate change (mitigation and adaptation). However, detailed action plans for each mission, and any clear targets are missing from the report8.
Although the action plan may be a missed opportunity for leadership on climate change, the good news is that change is coming8. Realising that the market is changing, and not to be left behind in the global race, Indian businesses are beginning to take on climate change as a business issue.
What we need now is for the government of India to capitalize on India’s position as a developing giant, take the lead and engage with governments of the world and the private sector for a low-carbon future.
References
source: unfccc.int
1988: A leading climate scientist James Hansen’s research findings coincided with those of other scientists around the world – the Earth’s climate was changing because of humans. The level of CO2 in the atmosphere had reached 350 ppm, and news and media coverage of global warming shot up following record heat and drought conditions.
This was also the year that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established.
The threat of climate change was real and here to stay. Within months, when heads of state met in Rio De Janeiro in 1992, they adopted the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change – UNFCCC, to consider steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, mainly through international agreement.
Each year since 1995, the UNFCCC has held a ‘Conference of Parties’ (COP) to negotiate and decide on mechanisms to reduce global emissions, mitigate climate change and adapt to it. In 1997, deliberations for concrete action led to the negotiation of the legally binding Kyoto Protocol. As the world approached the new century, there were indications that some progress was being made to tackle the biggest problem humanity had created and would face.
This was not to be. Vested fossil-fuel interests and oil lobbies mobilized a counter-attack23, successfully creating confusion about the facts and pressurizing governments (particularly the United States) to deny the facts and reject the climate change issue.
In a historic diplomatic failure, the United States, under the George W Bush administration refused to sign the Kyoto Protocol, leaving other major industrialized countries shocked.
After nearly ten years of see-sawing negotiations, on 16th February 2005, the Kyoto Protocol became legally binding. But precious time and political momentum had been lost 23. The tragedy of these diplomatic failures has been a serious worsening of the situation. Global emissions are now at 480 ppm, driven by a world economy that runs on oil and coal. Coupled with tropical deforestation, these accelerating emissions have resulted in an alarming rate of increase in carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere 24.
The United States is now the only country that has not ratified the Kyoto Protocol, although it is the second largest contributor of greenhouse gases in the world. Although historical emissions came mostly from industrialized countries, developing countries, not to be outdone, now contribute a large and growing proportion of global emissions.
Non-binding targets on major emitters such as China and India also mean that climate negotiations had led to a impasse between the ‘North’ and the ‘South’.
Over the past few years, owing to a stronger scientific consensus and rising public awareness, the political will to tackle the climate crisis has grown. The EU has made commitments to reduce emissions by 20% below 1990 levels by 2030, and to more cuts if a favourable international agreement is reached in 2009. A new Australian Government ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 2007, and attended the 13th COP, known as the Bali Summit. India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh released India’s National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC). Several states in the US have adopted climate plans, and the Obama administration is all set to take the climate challenge head on.
UNFCCC meetings in 2007 culminated in the Bali Road Map, and an ambitious plan to reach a global long-term agreement that will take over from Kyoto in 2012. This agreement is to be reached at the COP 15 in Copenhagen this year.
Copenhagen: The Crucial Conference
The 15th Conference of Parties of the UNFCCC, to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009, will try to work out a way for the world to work together and agree to a solution to global warming. COP 15 is one of the most significant gatherings ever, as it will be – as many scientists say – the last chance to change, and secure a future for our planet.
Warming that has already occurred is affecting weather patterns, damaging marine and coastal ecosystems, affecting the Polar Regions and forest ecosystems, and altering crop yields.
Evidence of change: IPCC Report 2007
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For more information see the IPCC report.
Varying degrees of impacts are predicted for varying temperatures. On average, the earth will become warmer. According to the latest IPCC report, even current levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are likely to result in:
Extreme weather events: There are clear indicators that impacts in many sectors will become more and more severe with rising temperatures
Declining crop yields: which could leave millions without the ability to produce or purchase food
Ocean acidification: would affect not just marine systems, but also fish stocks – an already over-extracted resource
Melting glaciers: and rising seas will displace people, submerge cities and lead to salinity of precious arable land. Melting ice sheets are predicted to raise sea levels and threaten at least 4 million km2 of land
Biodiversity loss: changing climate affects species, ecosystems and ecosystem functions. Some ecosystems are more vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change than others. In fact, some of the most vulnerable ecosystems are also the richest in biodiversity – wetlands, coastal ecosystems and tropical forests.
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Effects would include severe threat to our food and water security, increased droughts, floods, hurricanes and storms, displacement of coastal populations, increased and changed patterns of diseases2.
To prevent even more drastic changes from occurring, we need to stabilize the level of greenhouse gases at a maximum of 550 ppm (although scientists suggest ideal levels of around 350 ppm).
To achieve this will require urgent, substantial action from both developed and developing countries. For a start, to avoid the most serious consequences, we will have to peak our emissions no later than 2015, and rapidly reduce emissions after that by 50 to 80% below 2000 levels by the year 205018 .
Today however, the realities are rather different. Developing countries, with their larger populations than industrialized ones, have entered into the intensive stages of economic development, and are adding to global emissions. To provide a comparison, between 1990 and 2008, carbon dioxide emissions grew by 27 percent in the US, but by 150 percent in China23.
To get an idea of the pace of development, sample this: the International Energy Agency (IEA) had predicted in 2004, that China would surpass US emissions by 2030. That no longer appears to be true, as China seems to have surpassed US emissions in 2006 – 2007.
All these emissions arise from the burning of fossil fuels for industrialization and development, and through deforestation. Some of the major human activities that result in greenhouse gas emissions are power generation (25%), deforestation (20%), road transport (13%), oil and gas production (6.3%), fertilizer production (6%), livestock (5.1%), cement production (4%), aviation (3.5%), iron and steel manufacture (3.2%) and waste production (3%).
See the pie chart below to see the contribution that the most important greenhouse gases make to global emissions.
The greenhouse effect
Carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases are naturally present in the atmosphere.
These gases trap heat radiated from the earth’s surface. The effect is the warming of the atmosphere and the earth’s surface, and is called the ‘greenhouse effect’
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Since the industrial revolution, several million tonnes of heat trapping (or greenhouse) gases have been released into the atmosphere, accumulating steadily and trapping more and more heat. Around the start of the industrial revolution, the amount of greenhouse gases (mainly carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) were a fairly constant 280 parts per million. Today, the overall amount of GHGs has exceeded 430 ppm; more than a 35 percent increase from pre-industrial levels22.
In June 1988, James Hansen, a scientist with NASA, told politicians in the United States that he was almost 99 percent sure that the reason for record high temperatures that year was not from ‘natural variations’, but from the growing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
The Mauna Loa atmospheric measurements (see table below) are the longest continuous record of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations available in the world. Considered to be one of the most favourable locations for measuring carbon dioxide concentrations, the data shows the highest concentrations of carbon dioxide ever to be recorded. Our greenhouse gas emissions have not stopped at the level seen in the graph, but are continuing to increase at the rapid rate of 2.5 ppm each year2 – an alarmingly high rate.
Parallel to the increase in greenhouse gas levels, and as anticipated by scientists2, global mean temperatures have increased. In effect, the earth has warmed by 0.76 ºC since the 1900s2. Each decade, the temperature has increased by about 0.2 ºC.
This time series, from the Climatic Research Unit (source: jpl, NASA), shows the combined global land and sea surface temperatures from 1850 to 2007. The y-axis depicts departures from the long-term average (called ‘temperature anomaly’).
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| source: naturalpartiot.org | source: wikipedia | © Kaavya Nag |
Not surprisingly then, all of the ten warmest years on record have occurred since 19902.
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According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the top ten warmest years on record have all occurred in the last twelve years. Arctic sea ice was also at a record low level. In September 2007, the Northwest Passage (picture on the right) in the Arctic was ice-free for the first time in satellite record history. (NASA) Scientific evidence and modeling suggests that a 2 ºC rise in average global temperatures represents a ‘tipping point’. Unless the level of greenhouse gases is stabilized, the associated severity of impacts will continue to escalate, and over the next few decades, we would face unavoidable economic and ecological costs2. To prevent the planet from warming to more than this temperature, concentrations of greenhouse gases must not exceed 550 ppm of CO2 equivalent. |
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HN Educate myself and my organization about climate change
What is climate change? Global climate (long-term weather conditions) changes naturally over long periods of time. Human activity is speeding up the rate at which this change is occurring. Climate change is global – everything we do in one place contributes to worldwide change. x
How urgent is the problem of climate change? Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are gases that trap heat in Earth’s atmosphere. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (http://www.ipcc.ch/), GHGs are at their highest level in 650,000 years due to human activities. The evidence for all this comes from Arctic ice melt (1), receding glaciers and Northern ice cover (2, 4), changes in rainfall patterns, and increased severity of extreme weather events. GHGs are also increasing rapidly. This is contributing to increase in global temperature (3). Scientists believe that if we don’t take action now, the situation could worsen rapidly.
How is India affected? In India, climate change is already leading to rise in sea-levels (4) threatening our coastal populations, and our food production among other things. As India’s population and economy grow, so does energy consumption. This means, our emissions will be 4 times higher than current levels by 2030.
(1)
(2) receding glaciers, iceland
(3) rising temperatures
(4) rise in sea levels
Determine my carbon footprint and reduce it
Every day, we use electricity, run the car, heat water, cook food etc. When we do these, we inevitably release GHGs into the atmosphere. Here are some terms you should become familiar with:
A carbon footprint is a measure of how much GHGs each of us individually produces. It is measured in tonnes (or kgs) of carbon-dioxide equivalent (CO2e).
Having a net zero-carbon footprint: When you do something that adds GHGs to the environment, if you do something else that reduces the GHGs by the amount that you added, you have a net zero-carbon footprint. In effect, you cancel the GHGs you added by helping remove the same amount of GHGs in some other way. This is also called carbon offsetting. When you have net zero-carbon footprint, you are also carbon neutral.
You can also be carbon positive — the amount of GHGs you emit is less than the amount tht you offset. That is, you take out more GHGs than you contribute.
Use CSM’s carbon foorprint calculator to measure your impact on the climate.
How do I reduce my carbon footprint? Small changes in our daily lives can collectively make big differences. Act today to make a difference.
Check CCI’s Climate saving tips: Good Earth. Remember: every individual’s action counts!
Help vulnerable communities adapt to climate change in whatever way I can
India as a whole is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Within India, however, some communities will be more affected than others. For example, poor people dependent on resources such as forests, fisheries and agriculture for their livelihoods will be disproportionately affected. We must ensure that the weakest sections of our society are protected through the development of mechanisms such as crop-insurance schemes and coastal defences
Promote India’s transition to a low-carbon society
Each one of us can do practical things to help our country move to a more sustainable, low-carbon society. For example, we can
Switch from conventional bulbs to compact fluorescent (CFL) bulbs;
Buy certified low-energy appliances instead of resource-intensive ones
Promote public transport, walking and cycling as alternatives to the private car
Demand more renewable energy from safe, green sources such as wind and solar, instead of coal-fired power plants
Ask our city and town leaders to plan our cities with climate change in mind – and ensure that the public participates in such processes
Ask our political leaders to set clear targets and timetables for India’s transition to a low-carbon society
Reduce use of plastics
Buy local products as far as possible
Reduce, recycle, reuse
Switch off electrical appliances when not in use
Switch from paper transactions to e-transactions wherever possible
Conserve water
Print only if you must
Climate Challenge India will help you be a ‘part of the change’!
Also check out our Cool Carbon Product Watch for the latest in low-carbon products.
Support science-based and equitable measures that will reduce will reduce national and international greenhouse gas emissions
Efforts to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions must be based on the best-available science using the precautionary principle. They must also be fair to ensure that the burden of adjustment to climate change does not fall disproportionately on the weakest sections of our society
Malayalam Educate myself and my organization about climate change
What is climate change? Global climate (long-term weather conditions) changes naturally over long periods of time. Human activity is speeding up the rate at which this change is occurring. Climate change is global – everything we do in one place contributes to worldwide change. x
How urgent is the problem of climate change? Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are gases that trap heat in Earth’s atmosphere. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (http://www.ipcc.ch/), GHGs are at their highest level in 650,000 years due to human activities. The evidence for all this comes from Arctic ice melt (1), receding glaciers and Northern ice cover (2, 4), changes in rainfall patterns, and increased severity of extreme weather events. GHGs are also increasing rapidly. This is contributing to increase in global temperature (3). Scientists believe that if we don’t take action now, the situation could worsen rapidly.
How is India affected? In India, climate change is already leading to rise in sea-levels (4) threatening our coastal populations, and our food production among other things. As India’s population and economy grow, so does energy consumption. This means, our emissions will be 4 times higher than current levels by 2030.
(1)
(2) receding glaciers, iceland
(3) rising temperatures
(4) rise in sea levels
Determine my carbon footprint and reduce it
Every day, we use electricity, run the car, heat water, cook food etc. When we do these, we inevitably release GHGs into the atmosphere. Here are some terms you should become familiar with:
A carbon footprint is a measure of how much GHGs each of us individually produces. It is measured in tonnes (or kgs) of carbon-dioxide equivalent (CO2e).
Having a net zero-carbon footprint: When you do something that adds GHGs to the environment, if you do something else that reduces the GHGs by the amount that you added, you have a net zero-carbon footprint. In effect, you cancel the GHGs you added by helping remove the same amount of GHGs in some other way. This is also called carbon offsetting. When you have net zero-carbon footprint, you are also carbon neutral.
You can also be carbon positive — the amount of GHGs you emit is less than the amount tht you offset. That is, you take out more GHGs than you contribute.
Use CSM’s carbon foorprint calculator to measure your impact on the climate.
How do I reduce my carbon footprint? Small changes in our daily lives can collectively make big differences. Act today to make a difference.
Check CCI’s Climate saving tips: Good Earth. Remember: every individual’s action counts!
Help vulnerable communities adapt to climate change in whatever way I can
India as a whole is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Within India, however, some communities will be more affected than others. For example, poor people dependent on resources such as forests, fisheries and agriculture for their livelihoods will be disproportionately affected. We must ensure that the weakest sections of our society are protected through the development of mechanisms such as crop-insurance schemes and coastal defences
Promote India’s transition to a low-carbon society
Each one of us can do practical things to help our country move to a more sustainable, low-carbon society. For example, we can
Switch from conventional bulbs to compact fluorescent (CFL) bulbs;
Buy certified low-energy appliances instead of resource-intensive ones
Promote public transport, walking and cycling as alternatives to the private car
Demand more renewable energy from safe, green sources such as wind and solar, instead of coal-fired power plants
Ask our city and town leaders to plan our cities with climate change in mind – and ensure that the public participates in such processes
Ask our political leaders to set clear targets and timetables for India’s transition to a low-carbon society
Reduce use of plastics
Buy local products as far as possible
Reduce, recycle, reuse
Switch off electrical appliances when not in use
Switch from paper transactions to e-transactions wherever possible
Conserve water
Print only if you must
Climate Challenge India will help you be a ‘part of the change’!
Also check out our Cool Carbon Product Watch for the latest in low-carbon products.
Support science-based and equitable measures that will reduce will reduce national and international greenhouse gas emissions
Efforts to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions must be based on the best-available science using the precautionary principle. They must also be fair to ensure that the burden of adjustment to climate change does not fall disproportionately on the weakest sections of our society
