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The ‘Hindu’, ignorant about weather and climate, but runs down IMD

September 2, 2016 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

We find objectionable the report by ‘The Hindu’ daily newspaper accusing the India Meteorological Department of scientific shortcoming (‘IMD gets its August forecast wrong’, 1 September 2016). The report claims that the IMD in June 2016 had forecast that rains for August would be more than usual but that the recorded rain was less than usual.

This is nothing but cheap sensationalising by the newspaper of a non-issue. In so doing the ‘Hindu’, which is considered one of Bharat’s national newspapers, has attempted to tarnish the work of not only the India Meteorological Department, but also the work of the earth observation technical community which serve us in the several institutions and agencies of the Ministry of Earth Sciences.

There is no mainstream news media in the country – no daily newspapers, no magazine or periodical, no television channel, no internet website – which possesses the competence to assess the scientific quality and correctness of output of the government earth science agencies, and whose output is delivered to the public every day, several times a day. ‘The Hindu’ certainly does not and with this report exposes its ignorance about meteorology and climate science and observation.

Concerning the newspaper’s claim, rainfall for the period 1 June to 31 August in the 36 meteorological sub-divisions of Bharat, as an area-weighted average, is -3% of the long period average and is therefore well within the boundaries set by both the first stage and second stage forecasts provided by the IMD. Of the 36 sub-divisions, for this period 24 sub-divisions have recorded normal rainfall, four have excess and eight (including the two island sub-divisions) have deficient rainfall. In what way is this an erring forecast?

The news report in the ‘Hindu’ states that the forecasting error it has found “suggests that the agency’s weather models are still not robust enough to capture changes in global climate that could affect” our monsoon. This is nonsense.

The earth observation agencies of the MoES – of which the IMD is a part – for the June to September monsoon forecast employs a group of six parameters that inform the forecast (together called an ensemble forecasting system). These are: north-east Pacific to north-west Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly gradient, south-east equatorial Indian Ocean sea surface temperature, East Asia mean sea level pressure, central Pacific (El Nino region 3.4), sea surface temperature and tendency, north Atlantic mean sea level pressure and north-central Pacific 850mb wind gradient. In what way does this not look at global climate?

Moreover, the IMD and the agencies of the MoES (notably the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology) work closely regionally and internationally on climate science, weather prediction and monitoring. Not only is the IMD implementing for the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) a Regional Climate Centre for South Asia, the monsoon prediction and monitoring system relies on collaboration with: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of USA, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services of UK, and with the national meteorological agencies of Bangladesh, Bhutan, the Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.

And furthermore, it is because the Earth System Science Organisation agencies and institutes revise, review and upgrade forecasting models, computing wherewithal and methods continuously that we have in 2016 an experimental forecast (based on the Monsoon Mission coupled dynamical model).

‘The Hindu’ newspaper has presented its own uninformed reading of differences in forecast averages to make an absurd claim against the IMD, neglecting entirely to mention the extremely valuable service provided, at the district and even at the block level, to Bharat’s kisans via daily sms on weather which will affect crops; neglecting the several excellent initiatives launched by the Department since 2015 on localising forecasts for towns and cities (in close coordination with the National Remote Sensing Centre of the Indian Space Research organisation, the Meteorological and Oceanographic Satellite Data Archival Centre of ISRO’s Space Applications Centre, and the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services.

A tribute to the weathermen of Bharat

April 12, 2016 by Climate portal editor 9 Comments

When the weather causes anxiety, in the districts and towns, harassed administrators and the impatient public turn quickly to the weatherman. Whether for advice about a possible heat wave, about thunderstorms or hail storms, about extended dry spells, about the possibility of rainfall during a crop sowing period one week distant, it is the local weatherman who has the knowledge and provides the answers.

That weatherman – and weatherwoman, for the service has a number of women scientists – is from the India Meteorological Department, the weather watchers for Bharat.

Theirs is often a thankless task, of poring over the output from instruments and computations, ensuring that the essential information about weather conditions six, 12 or 24 hours hence is transmitted to all those to whom it matters.

Our weathermen scan the skies with their instruments so that they can issue, to airports and airfields all over Bharat, the ‘meteorological aerodrome report’ (or METARs) on which all our commercial flights depend. Our weathermen scan the seas with their instruments to issue the sea weather reports and fleet forecasts for marine traffic in the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea and the nearer Indian Ocean.

India Climate portal thanks readers for the appreciative responses to this tribute, and for the comments (below) which we urge the Ministry of Earth Sciences to consider.

Our weathermen scan the atmosphere with the aid of the orbital eyes of our satellites so that, for every single district, an agricultural meteorology forecast is issued every day and for every crop season. Our weathermen scan the routes of the Indian Railway system, the largest and most heavily utilised in the world, for threatening weather conditions that would affect the running of trains. They do this every single day, round the clock.

Today the India Meteorological Department has issued its first forecast for the 2016 monsoon, the Indian summer monsoon, whose patterns have been so well known for all our recorded history. It is a forecast that has been impatiently awaited this year, because of the shortages of water in our river basins, because of the likelihood – as ever – of heat waves, and because we have been so very worried about whether we will get the rains that eluded Bharat in 2015 and 2014.

The short answer is: yes we will. The details of the percentages, the probabilities, the averages, the likely ranges and other ponderables are all over the news. We’d like to compliment the people behind the forecast.

We sincerely thank the women and men of the India Meteorological Department for their extraordinary efforts – every day, week, season and year – to serve us. The IMD today provides us, in the public domain, through the internet, via television, with the help of mobile phone messages, and through smartphone apps, an array of weather services. These scientists, administrators, technicians and field staff have worked as hard to make this range of services available to us as they have worked to understand our ‘mausam’ better. Theirs is a science whose complexity defies the most powerful computing systems available, and they translate what they see into language that guides us as we go about our daily routines. It calls for a breadth of skills that must be applauded.

A sense of history and philosophy guides their work. The scientists and technicians of the Department take as much inspiration from the Upanishads (which contain serious discussion about the processes of cloud formation, rain, and the seasonal cycles) and from Varahamihira’s classical work, the Brihatsamhita, as they do from the insights that they collaborate on today in what is known as earth systems science. It is a remarkable legacy that is very much alive in the offices and field stations of the IMD.

For their work, and as representatives of the widely distributed IMD network of staff, we thank:
Director General of Meteorology, Laxman Singh Rathore; Additional Director General of Meteorology (Research), Bishwajit Mukhopadhyay; Deputy Director General of Meteorology (Upper Air Instruments), Devendra Pradhan; Deputy Director General of Meteorology (Surface Instruments), Rajesh Ramdas Mali; Deputy Director General of Meteorology, Regional Meteorological Centre New Delhi, Anand Kumar Sharma; Deputy Director General of Meteorology, Regional Meteorological Centre Mumbai, K S Hosalikar; Deputy Director General of Meteorology, Regional Meteorological Centre Kolkata, Gakul Chandra Debnath; Deputy Director General of Meteorology, Regional Meteorological Centre Chennai, S Bagulayan Thampi; Deputy Director General of Meteorology, Regional Meteorological Centre Guwahati, Sanjay Oneill Shaw; Deputy Director General of Meteorology, Regional Meteorological Centre Nagpur, P K Nandankar; Head, Agromet Services K K Singh; Deputy Director General of Meteorology, Satmet, New Delhi, Ashok Kumar Sharma; Deputy Director General of Meteorology, Hydromet, New Delhi, Surinder Kaur; Deputy Director General of Meteorology, Services, New Delhi, Brahma Prakash Yadav; Deputy Director General of Meteorology, Organisation, New Delhi, S D Attri; Deputy Director General of Meteorology, EMRC, New Delhi, Sunil Kumar Peshin; and Deputy Director General of Meteorology, Numerical Weather Prediction, New Delhi, Swapan Kumar Roy Bhowmik. Thank you all for a job very well done indeed.

Rahul Goswami

It’s to be a 93% monsoon says the IMD

April 22, 2015 by Climate portal editor 1 Comment

The India Meteorological Department has just released it’s long-awaited forecast for the 2015 Indian monsoon. In terms of the quantity of rainfall over the duration of the monsoon season (June to September) the IMD has said it will be 93% of the ‘Long Period Average’. This average is based on the years 1951-2000.

What this means is the ‘national’ average rainfall over the monsoon season for India is considered to be 89 centimetres, or 890 millimetres. So, based on the conditions calculated till today, the ‘national’ average rainfall for the June to September monsoon season is likely to be 830 millimetres.

There are caveats and conditions. The first is that the 93% forecast is to be applied to the long period average for each of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions, and a ‘national average’ does not in fact have much meaning without considerable localisation. The second is that the forecasting methodology itself comes with a plus-minus caution. There is “a model error of ± 5%” is the IMD’s caution.

This first forecast and the model that the forecast percentage has emerged from are thanks to the efforts of the Earth System Science Organization (ESSO), under the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), and the India Meteorological Department (IMD), which is the principal government agency in all matters relating to meteorology. This is what the IMD calls a first-stage forecast.

As with all complex models, this one comes with several considerations. The ESSO, through the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM, which is in Pune), also runs what it calls an ‘Experimental Coupled Dynamical Model Forecasting System’. According to this, the monsoon rainfall during the 2015 monsoon season (June to September) averaged over India “is likely to be 91% ±5% of long period model average”. (The IMD forecast is available here, and in Hindi here.)

This is a lower figure than the 93% headline issued by the IMD. This too should be read with care as there are five “category probability forecasts” that are calculated – deficient, below normal, normal, above normal and excess. Each is accompanied by a forecast probability and a climatological probability (see the table). The maximum forecast probability of 35% is for a below normal monsoon, while the maximum climatological probability is for a normal monsoon.

As before, time will tell and the IMD will issue its second long range forecast in June 2015. Our advice to the Ministry of Earth Sciences and to the IMD is to issue its second long range forecast a month from now, in May, and also to confirm these forecasts two months hence in June, when monsoon 2015 will hopefully be active all over the peninsula.

Follow the highs and lows of monsoon 2015

April 22, 2015 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

Our coverage of the ‘mausam’, the Indian summer monsoon of 2015, has begun. The unseasonal rains of March and April, which have proved so destructive to farmers, have shown why the conventional monsoon season must be widened. You will find all monsoon-related analysis, data and reports here.

We provide short, focused updates on weather trends. We strengthen the citizen’s understanding of the effects and impacts of climate change with relevant and jargon-free commentary.

We complement the Government of India’s excellent climate and weather monitoring services by advising what you can expect in your district or city, from unseasonal rains or the lack of it. Read our status reporting and analysis here on the India Climate Portal and follow our active twitter feed.

A third dry week of monsoon 2014

June 28, 2014 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

05 to 11 June is the first week. 12 to 18 June is the second week. 19 to 25 June is the third week. The bars represent the weeks and are divided by IMD’s rainfall categories, with the length of each category in a bar showing the proportion of that category’s number of districts. The colours used here match those used in IMD’s weekly rainfall map (below) which displays the category-wise rainfall in the 36 meteorological sub-divisions (but not by district).

The IMD weekly rainfall map for 19 to 25 June.

We now have rain data for three complete weeks from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and for all the districts that have reported the progress of the monsoon.

The overall picture remains grim. In the third week of the monsoon the number of districts that reported normal rains in that week (-19% to +19% of the average) is only 74. No rain (-100%) was reported by 71 districts Scanty rain (-99% to -60%) was reported by 221 districts, deficient rain (-59% to -20%) was reported by 125 districts, excess rain (+20% and more) was reported by 129 districts, and there was no data from 21 districts.

The Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, of the Ministry of Agriculture, has already issued its guidance to states on the contingency plans to be followed for a delayed monsoon. That is why it is important to make available the district-level normals and rainfall departures – the meteorological sub-divisions are too broad for such analysis and are irrelevant to any contingency plans and remedial work.

By end-June, when the IMD updates its outlook for the rest of monsoon 2014, we expect more detailed assessments of the districts to be publicly available – the agromet (agricultural meteorology section) already provides this to the states, with state agriculture departments given the responsibility of ensuring that the advice – which is especially important for farmers to plan the sowing of crop staples – reaches every panchayat.