The India Climate Observatory

Commentary, action and research on climate and development in India

Dry districts alert, May 2017

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A large number of districts in south, peninsular, central and eastern India are experiencing dry and semi-arid conditions which will continue, and likely become worse, until the 2017 monsoon becomes active.

This list of districts is based on our re-working of the maps released weekly by the India Meteorological Department (Hydromet section in Pune), which show the district-level standardised precipitation index (or SPI). While this is not a drought or dryness index, the weekly SPI serves as a very reliable indicator of where water stress is occurring, and is therefore an invaluable aid for relief planning.

In this series of four maps, re-coloured by us to better display differences in SPI between regions and over time, the change in south India stands out.

Each map displays the SPI as a cumulative reading of the four weeks until the date given. That is why the change for any district – from ‘moderately dry’ to ‘severely dry’ for example – needs to be seen as having an immediate bearing on the available water, crop health and condition of forest and pasture for that district.

Based on the readings for 26 April 2017 this is the list of districts that need urgent attention.

Maharashtra: Gadchiroli, Chandrapur, Yavatmal, Kolhapur
Chhattisgarh (Raipur division): Gariaband, Raipur, Baloda Bazar
Odisha: Rayagada, Kandhamal, Angul, Cuttack
West Bengal: 24 Parganas North
Manipur: Chandel
Andhra Pradesh: Vizianagaram, Kurnool
Telengana (old district boundaries): Nizamabad, Karimnagar, Medak, Warangal, Khammam, Mahbubnagar
Karnataka: Bidar, Raichur, Bijapur, Bagalkot, Koppal, Gadag, Dharwad, Bellary, Shimoga
Tamil Nadu: Cuddalore, Nagapattinam, Tiruvarur, Thanjavur, Pudukkottai, Ramanathapuram, Toothukudi, Kaniyakumari, Theni, Coimbatore
Kerala: Malappuram, Thrissur, Ernakulam, Kottayam, Alapuzha

South India’s water emergency

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ICP_res_20170410_topBy the end of the first week of April 2017, the most current and reliable indicator for stored water in south India showed how dire the situation has become. And the South-West monsoon is still about eight weeks away. The weekly data sheet on the stored water quantities in the 91 major reservoirs of India, which is maintained and released by the Central Water Commission, has in the 6 April 2017 release shown the scale of the water emergency.

Of the 31 reservoirs in the southern region (Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Telengana and Andhra Pradesh) that are among the major reservoirs of India, 18 have stored water that is less than 15% of their full capacities.

These 18 are (ranked by least water stored):
Nagarjuna Sagar, APTG, 0.00%
Sholayar, TN, 0.00%
Almatti, KAR, 0.03%
Kabini, KAR, 2.25%
Vanivilas Sagar, KAR, 2.74%
Tungabhadra, KAR, 3.21%
Vaigai, TN, 4.07%
Parambikulam, TN, 5.00%
Malaprabha (Renuka), KAR, 5.56%
Hemavathy, KAR, 5.72%
Mettur (Stanley), TN, 6.72%
Periyar, KER, 6.94%
Bhadra, KAR, 9.02%
Lower Bhawani, TN, 9.09%
Srisailam, APTG, 9.44%
Krishnaraja Sagar, KAR, 11.44%
Malapmuzha, KER, 11.61%
Aliyar, TN, 14.74%
(TN is Tamil Nadu, KER is Kerala, KAR is Karnataka, APTG is Andhra Pradesh and Telengana)

ICP_south_water_20170411

Using a municipal average of about 400 litres per day per household that is a typical designed supply (not delivered, for that’s another tale), how much water does this allow for the 60.51 million households of the southern region until the monsoon begins?

Tamil Nadu has 18.46 million households, Kerala has 7.83 million, Karnataka has 13.3 million, Andhra Pradesh and Telengana have 20.92 million. These together need 24.2 billion litres a day or, in reservoir storage terms, 0.024 billion cubic metres (bcm) a day. The 31 major reservoirs of southern India together have, as of 6 April 2017, 6.583 bcm. From this quantity is taken water for industrial, agricultural and commercial use.

These uses are given priority or water stocks are secured (never mind allocation and metering) especially by industry. Normally, what remains for household use is about a third of the available stock. This leaves, as on 6 April, about 2.19 bcm for household use, which will suffice the 60.51 million households of south India for about 90 days – but only provided, and this is the stringent, non-negotiable condition that must be enforced, all households especially urban keep within the 400 litres per household per day limit.

The situation does not improve even if the monsoon arrives on time and the first weeks deliver normal rainfall. It is only by July 5-15 that reservoir water stocks begin trending upwards. This is where the 90-day restricted supply can take south India to. But only if immediate and strict rationing is imposed, as it should have been, to allow for climatological variance, by 1 March 2017.