The India Climate Observatory

Commentary, action and research on climate and development in India

Monsoon outlook for June and July

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At the end of May 2016, based on a reading of the seasonal forecasts of our Earth System Science Organisation group (under the Ministry of Earth Sciences) and complemented by the collaborative seasonal forecasts of the NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, we have prepared an outlook for the June and July monsoon 2016 months.

The regional rainfall outlook for June and July 2016. Green hues are +0.25 to +1mm/day averaged over the outlook period.

The regional rainfall outlook for June and July 2016. Green hues are +0.25 to +1mm/day averaged over the outlook period.

The outlook shows: (1) that our main concern of whether the first stage monsoon forecast of the IMD remains true is fulfilled, which is, that the 2016 monsoon will be normal (and better than normal in some regions); (2) that our next most important concern of whether any region will have significantly below normal rainfall is also addressed, and under the current forecasts there is no such region; (3) that the June and July rains will be at least normal in most states and meteorological sub-divisions.

Some provisos need to be observed. The seasonal forecasts are released for three month spells (May to July, June to August, and so on). Depending on the kind of modelling that is followed (and there are several) the outlooks are updated or modified every 10 days to fortnightly to monthly. These updates are based on what are called ‘initial conditions’ which for our current outlook is the first half of May.

Here is a more detailed regional outlook for June and July 2016:
• Tamil Nadu and Kerala will have rain that over the season is +1 to +1.25mm/day.
• Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telengana, Madhya Pradesh, most of Maharashtra, all the states of northern and north-west India, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, Sikkim, Arunachal, lower Assam, western Meghalaya, and Lakshadweep will have rain that that over the season is +0.25 to +1 mm/day.
• Odisha, Chhattisgarh, southern Jharkhand, gangetic West Bengal, eastern Vidarbha (Maharashtra), the north-eastern half of Telengana, north coastal Andhra Pradesh, upper Assam, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura will have rain that over the season is -0.2 to +0.25mm/day and Andaman and Nicobar islands will have rain that is up to -0.5 mm/day.

This outlook we will amend between June 10 and 15 as the ESSO’s forecasts and international collaborative monsoon forecasts are updated.

Normal to good monsoon likely

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The Indian summer monsoon in 2016 for the months of June to September will be normal to above normal in almost all the meteorological sub-divisions.

This is our reading of the seasonal climatic predictions provided by five different sources, amongst them the India Meteorological Department (IMD), which themselves are based on ensembles of forecasts.

Our outlook for the June to September 2016 period is based on an initial study of the three-monthly and seasonal predictions which are in the public domain, from the following agencies:

India monsoon 2016

A mapping of the forecast by one predictive climate model, for the May to July period. Source: NOAA/NCEP

The Climate Prediction and Monitoring Group of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India; the  Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) by the Climate Prediction Center of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA; regionalised Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center which are based on models of the NOAA and NASA; and the Meteorological ‘Met’ Office of Britain which is a World Meteorological Organisation climate research centre.

Combining the indications from this early set of forecasts we see that when typical monsoon conditions have set in over southern and peninsular India, the June and July rainfall patterns should be normal for June with an increase in average rainfall for July (in the southern peninsula, the west coast, north-eastern states and the north India mountainous states). The models currently also point to the August and September period recording above normal rainfall over most of India, and normal rainfall in central India.

The climatic prediction models whose forecasting products we have examined make their predictions for 90-day periods (such as May, June and July together) based on conditions observed and calculated for a given month (January, February and March so far). We will consolidate and expand the scope of this initial prognosis – which is of a normal to above normal monsoon – as these forecasts are updated.