1. Overwhelming scientific consensus indicates that human activities are the primary reason for recent climate change¹. Over the last century, the burning of fossil fuels has greatly increased the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide² and other heat-trapping (or greenhouse) gases in the atmosphere.
2. Greenhouse gases are at their highest concentration in 650,000 years – climbing from 280 parts per million (ppm) in 1880 to 389 ppm in 2010².
3. With this increase in greenhouse gases, average global temperatures have climbed by 0.76° Celsius since 1880. Even if we were to stop emissions today, we are already heading for 1.6°C of warming².
4. Scientists believe that a 2°C rise in global temperatures (and 450 ppm of CO₂) by 2100, represents a ‘tipping point’ above which runaway (irreversible) climate change could occur¹.
5. We are already seeing the effects of warming in Arctic ice is melting, massive ice sheets at the poles have collapsed, sea levels have risen, the ocean is warming and becoming increasingly acidic, trees are flowering earlier. Living systems including coral reefs and polar bears are in decline¹.
6. More than 100 countries – many being least developed and vulnerable small island states – representing more than 50% of the United Nations’ membership – have called for global carbon dioxide emissions to be limited to 350 ppm – an associated rise of 1.5 ° C by 2100, to ensure their survival.
7. The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), a grouping of 43 of the world’s most vulnerable countries, has called strongly for this 1.5°C stabilization target. These targets are below the 2°C (450 ppm) target promoted by many industrialized countries and some developing countries, which are based on now-outdated science⁴.
8. Recent economic studies show that tighter targets (than 1.5 °C) are feasible, requiring investments of less than 2% of GDP by 2100. Tighter targets would also send a positive carbon price signal to the markets to drive the development of clean energy technologies needed for the transition to low-carbon economies⁴.
9. To avoid dangerous climate change, IPCC projections indicate that world emissions must reach their maximum (peak) by 2015, and start reducing soon after, to avoid dangerous climate change¹.
10. Recent publications indicate that the consequences of climate change are already occurring at a faster pace and with greater magnitude than the climate models used by the IPCC predict³. Recent observations confirm that sea level rise is in the upper range projected by IPCC models³.
11. In South Asia, freshwater availability is predicted to decrease by 2050, and coastal areas will be at risk from increased flooding¹.

End Notes

1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (2007)
2. National Aeronautics and Space Administration – Goddard Institute of Space Studies
3. Union of Concerned Scientists
4. AOSIS press release September 2009