The India Climate Observatory

Commentary, action and research on climate and development in India

Where they waited for rain in 2015

by 1 Comment

RG_ICP_20150918

With two weeks of the June to September monsoon remaining in 2015, one of the end-of-season conclusions that the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has spoken of is that four out of ten districts in the country has had less rainfall than normal.

This overview is by itself alarming, but does not aid state governments and especially line ministries plan for coming months, particularly for agriculture and cultivation needs, water use, the mobilisation of resources for contingency measures, and to review the short- and medium-term objectives of development programmes.

RG_ICP_100districts_table_20150918The detailed tabulation provided here is meant to provide guidance of where this may be done immediately – in the next two to four weeks – and how this can be done in future.

The table lists 100 districts each of which have readings 15 weeks of rainfall variation – the numbers are not rainfall in millimetres (mm) but the variation in per cent from the long-term normal for that district for that week. The colour codes for each district’s week cell are the same as those used for the new 11-grade rainfall categorisation.

The districts are chosen on the basis of the size of their rural populations (calculated for 2015). Thus Purba Champaran in Bihar, Bhiwani in Haryana, Rewa in Madhya Pradesh and Viluppuram in Tamil Nadu are the districts in those states with the largest rural populations.

In this way, the effect of rainfall variability, from Week 1 (which ended on 3 June) to Week 15 (which ended on 9 September), in the districts with the largest rural populations can be analysed. Because a large rural population is also a large agricultural population, the overall seasonal impact on that district’s agricultural output can also be inferred.

The distribution of the districts is: six from Uttar Pradesh; five each from Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Haryana, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal; four each from Assam, Jammu and Kashmir, and Kerala; three from Uttarakhand; two from Himachal Pradesh; one each from Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim and Tripura.

Using the new 11-grade rainfall categorisation, a normal rainweek is one in which the rainfall is between +10% more and -10% less for that week. The overview for this group of 100 districts, only 11 have had five or more normal weeks of rain out of 15 weeks. In alarming contrast, there are 77 districts which have had three or fewer normal weeks of rain – that is, more than three-fourths of these most populous districts. Half the number (51 districts) have had two, one or no normal weeks of rain. And 22 of these districts have had only one or no normal weeks of rain.

From this group of 100 most populous (rural population) districts Gorakhpur in Uttar Pradesh and Nagaon in Assam have had the most deficit rainweeks, tallying 13, out of the 15 tabulated so far. There are ten districts which have had 12 deficit rainweeks out of 15 and they are (in decreasing order of rural population): Muzaffarpur (Bihar), Pune and Jalgaon (Maharashtra), Surguja (Chhattisgarh), Panch Mahals and Vadodara (Gujarat), Firozpur (Punjab), Thiruvananthapuram (Kerala), Hoshiarpur (Punjab) and Mewat (Haryana).

– Rahul Goswami

Health now part of PM’s Council on Climate Change

by Leave a Comment

ICP_20150721

The Prime Minister’s Council on Climate Change has included a new Mission on Climate Change and Health. A National Expert Group on Climate Change and Health has been constituted by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare to address the issues related to adverse effects of climate change on human health.

According to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, there is increasing concern in India over the effects of climate change on human health. Climate change affects the social and environmental determinants of health and weather events such as storms, floods, cyclones amplify the spread of vector-borne diseases, and the spread of food- and water-borne diseases.

There are complex interactions between both causes and effects. Ecological processes, such as impacts on biodiversity and changes in disease vectors, and social dynamics, can amplify these risks. Graphic: Lancet

There are complex interactions between both causes and effects. Ecological processes, such as impacts on biodiversity and changes in disease vectors, and social dynamics, can amplify these risks. Graphic: Lancet

Work under this new mission is expected to complement running initiatives such as the National Programme for Prevention and Control of Cancer, Diabetes, Cardiovascular Diseases and Stroke (NPCDCS). This programme focuses on prevention through awareness generation, behavior and life-style changes, early diagnosis and treatment of persons with high levels of risk factors and their referral to higher facilities for appropriate management. Funding is provided for human resources, infrastructure, early screening, and treatment as well as for Information, Education & Communication (IEC) activities.

India and China suffer over USD 1.89 trillion annually in terms of the value of lives lost and ill health caused from air pollution, according to a major recent report which has underlined how climate change threatens to undermine half a century of progress in global health.

An overview of the links between greenhouse gas emissions, climate change, and health. Social responses also ameliorate some risks through adaptive actions. Graphic: Lancet

An overview of the links between greenhouse gas emissions, climate change, and health. Social responses also ameliorate some risks through adaptive actions. Graphic: Lancet

The analysis by the Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change concluded that the benefits to health resulting from slashing fossil fuel use are so large that tackling global warming also presents the greatest global opportunity to improve people’s health in the 21st century. The Commission’s work was supported by the UN World Health Organisation.

The current trajectory, of average global temperature warming by 4 Celsius has very serious and potentially catastrophic effects for human health and human survival. The Commission said this must be seen as a medical emergency. The comprehensive analysis sets out the direct risks to health, including heatwaves, floods and droughts, and indirect – but no less deadly – risks, including air pollution, spreading diseases, famines and mental ill-health. A rapid phase-out of coal from the global energy mix is among the commission’s top recommendations, given the millions of premature deaths from air pollution this would prevent.

“The effects of climate change are being felt today, and future projections represent an unacceptably high and potentially catastrophic risk to human health,” said the report. “The implications of climate change for a global population of 9 billion people threatens to undermine the last half century of gains in development and global health. The direct effects of climate change include increased heat stress, floods, drought, and increased frequency of intense storms, with the indirect threatening population health through adverse changes in air pollution, the spread of disease vectors, food insecurity and under-nutrition, displacement, and mental ill health.”