The India Climate Observatory

Commentary, action and research on climate and development in India

Prepare for May heat

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ICP_May_heat_20160504The heat outlook for the first half of May, which was released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on 02 May, calls for immediate attention and preparation on all fronts.

The forecast is for three periods of five days each (called pentads) with expected temperature anomalies given for maximum and minimum temperatures. The big picture is that over some parts of the country maximum temperatures will remain 3-4 C above normal for all the three pentads.

Minimum temperatures that are 1-5 degrees higher than normal will increase in terms of the geographical range as the days progress through the first, second and third pentad: 02 to 06 May, 07 to 11 May and 12 to 16 May.

There are several particular alerts arising from the IMD heat wave outlook:

The heat outlook for the first half of May, released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), for the three five-day periods of 02 to 06 May, 07 to 11 May and 12 to 16 May.

The heat outlook for the first half of May, released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), for the three five-day periods of 02 to 06 May, 07 to 11 May and 12 to 16 May.

1. Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal and south Chhattisgarh, which have seen some record-breaking high temperatures in April, will continue to see above normal maximum temperatures.

2. South Interior Karnataka, coastal Maharashtra and Goa (the Konkan), and Saurashtra will experience a gradual rise in maximum temperatures from the first to third pentad.

3. Maximum and minimum temperatures both, in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand will remain around 5 C above normal for the duration of the forecast.

4. The 12 to 16 May period (third pentad) will see higher than normal maximum temperatures (2 to 5 C) over almost the entire country, and higher than normal minimum temperatures over most of the country.

Other observations are:

5. The North-East will experience minimum temperatures about a degree higher than normal during 07 to 16 May.

6. For the second pentad, that is 07 to 11 May, maximum temperatures in north-west India (Punjab, Haryana, western Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, western Madhya Pradesh, Delhi) will drop by 2 to 3 C.

7. Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseem and Tamil Nadu will experience lower minimum temperatures by 1 to 2 C during 07 to 16 May.

Please observe basic precautions during this period in particular: eat smaller meals more often; drink water even when not thirsty; avoid tea, coffee and alcohol; plan your activities to avoid being outdoors during 11am to 4pm; do not leave children in cars by themselves; keep a watch on the elderly especially those who are infirm or invalid; wear non-synthetic non-polyester light-coloured and loose fitting clothes; if working outdoors rest frequently; provide drinking water and shade to animals and pets.

A tribute to the weathermen of Bharat

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When the weather causes anxiety, in the districts and towns, harassed administrators and the impatient public turn quickly to the weatherman. Whether for advice about a possible heat wave, about thunderstorms or hail storms, about extended dry spells, about the possibility of rainfall during a crop sowing period one week distant, it is the local weatherman who has the knowledge and provides the answers.

That weatherman – and weatherwoman, for the service has a number of women scientists – is from the India Meteorological Department, the weather watchers for Bharat.

Theirs is often a thankless task, of poring over the output from instruments and computations, ensuring that the essential information about weather conditions six, 12 or 24 hours hence is transmitted to all those to whom it matters.

Our weathermen scan the skies with their instruments so that they can issue, to airports and airfields all over Bharat, the ‘meteorological aerodrome report’ (or METARs) on which all our commercial flights depend. Our weathermen scan the seas with their instruments to issue the sea weather reports and fleet forecasts for marine traffic in the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea and the nearer Indian Ocean.

India Climate portal thanks readers for the appreciative responses to this tribute, and for the comments (below) which we urge the Ministry of Earth Sciences to consider.

Our weathermen scan the atmosphere with the aid of the orbital eyes of our satellites so that, for every single district, an agricultural meteorology forecast is issued every day and for every crop season. Our weathermen scan the routes of the Indian Railway system, the largest and most heavily utilised in the world, for threatening weather conditions that would affect the running of trains. They do this every single day, round the clock.

Today the India Meteorological Department has issued its first forecast for the 2016 monsoon, the Indian summer monsoon, whose patterns have been so well known for all our recorded history. It is a forecast that has been impatiently awaited this year, because of the shortages of water in our river basins, because of the likelihood – as ever – of heat waves, and because we have been so very worried about whether we will get the rains that eluded Bharat in 2015 and 2014.

The short answer is: yes we will. The details of the percentages, the probabilities, the averages, the likely ranges and other ponderables are all over the news. We’d like to compliment the people behind the forecast.

We sincerely thank the women and men of the India Meteorological Department for their extraordinary efforts – every day, week, season and year – to serve us. The IMD today provides us, in the public domain, through the internet, via television, with the help of mobile phone messages, and through smartphone apps, an array of weather services. These scientists, administrators, technicians and field staff have worked as hard to make this range of services available to us as they have worked to understand our ‘mausam’ better. Theirs is a science whose complexity defies the most powerful computing systems available, and they translate what they see into language that guides us as we go about our daily routines. It calls for a breadth of skills that must be applauded.

A sense of history and philosophy guides their work. The scientists and technicians of the Department take as much inspiration from the Upanishads (which contain serious discussion about the processes of cloud formation, rain, and the seasonal cycles) and from Varahamihira’s classical work, the Brihatsamhita, as they do from the insights that they collaborate on today in what is known as earth systems science. It is a remarkable legacy that is very much alive in the offices and field stations of the IMD.

For their work, and as representatives of the widely distributed IMD network of staff, we thank:
Director General of Meteorology, Laxman Singh Rathore; Additional Director General of Meteorology (Research), Bishwajit Mukhopadhyay; Deputy Director General of Meteorology (Upper Air Instruments), Devendra Pradhan; Deputy Director General of Meteorology (Surface Instruments), Rajesh Ramdas Mali; Deputy Director General of Meteorology, Regional Meteorological Centre New Delhi, Anand Kumar Sharma; Deputy Director General of Meteorology, Regional Meteorological Centre Mumbai, K S Hosalikar; Deputy Director General of Meteorology, Regional Meteorological Centre Kolkata, Gakul Chandra Debnath; Deputy Director General of Meteorology, Regional Meteorological Centre Chennai, S Bagulayan Thampi; Deputy Director General of Meteorology, Regional Meteorological Centre Guwahati, Sanjay Oneill Shaw; Deputy Director General of Meteorology, Regional Meteorological Centre Nagpur, P K Nandankar; Head, Agromet Services K K Singh; Deputy Director General of Meteorology, Satmet, New Delhi, Ashok Kumar Sharma; Deputy Director General of Meteorology, Hydromet, New Delhi, Surinder Kaur; Deputy Director General of Meteorology, Services, New Delhi, Brahma Prakash Yadav; Deputy Director General of Meteorology, Organisation, New Delhi, S D Attri; Deputy Director General of Meteorology, EMRC, New Delhi, Sunil Kumar Peshin; and Deputy Director General of Meteorology, Numerical Weather Prediction, New Delhi, Swapan Kumar Roy Bhowmik. Thank you all for a job very well done indeed.

Rahul Goswami

Preparing for the Indian summer

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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued its forecast for the 2016 hot weather season (April to June). The forecast shows that during the 2016 hot weather season, temperatures (mean, maximum and minimum) in all the sub-divisions are likely to be above normal. All the temperatures (maximum, minimum and mean) of most of the subdivisions from northwest India, Kerala from south India and Vidharbha from Central India are likely to be above normal by 1.0° C or more. Read the full forecast document here (pdf).

The season averaged maximum temperatures of coastal Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Assam and Meghalaya, sub-Himalayan west Bengal and Sikkim, and NMMT – Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura – are likely to be warmer by 0.5° C and that of the remaining subdivisions are likely to warmer than normal by 0.5° to 1° C. The season averaged minimum temperatures of sub-Himalayan west Bengal and Sikkim, and NMMT are likely to be warmer than normal by <0.5° C and that of the remaining subdivisions are likely to warmer than normal by 0.5° to 1° C.

There is also a high probability (76%) of maximum temperatures in the core heat wave zone during the 2016 hot weather season to be above normal. The core heat wave zone covers the states of Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, the National Capital Territory and Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha and Telengana and the meteorological sub-divisions of Marathwada, Vidharbha, Madhya Maharashtra and coastal Andhra Pradesh. This in turn suggests high probability of moderate and severe heat wave conditions in the core heat wave zone during the hot weather season.

From this season, the IMD will also provide extended range forecasts (five–day averaged forecasts for the next 15 days) of heat wave conditions over the country. This will be based on the Dynamical Extended Range Forecasting System developed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) in Pune. The forecast will consist of the probability of occurrence of hot days, heat waves and severe heat waves for the next 15 days updated every fifth day from 1 April, 2016. The forecasts will be available on the IMD website.