The India Climate Observatory

Commentary, action and research on climate and development in India

The Indiaclimate Rainfall Index 2019

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We have compiled the Indiaclimate District Rainfall Adequacy Index for the monsoon season of 2019. As with our previous editions of the index series, this one for the 2019 monsoon applies our innovation to the communicating of the weekly changes in rainfall adequacy as recorded by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The graph (or visualisation as any such illustration is called nowadays, a word that makes the simple graph or chart sound sophisticated, but which usually complicates matters instead of simplifying them) is easy enough to read and interpret. What you have is several vertical bars, each corresponding to dates a week apart. The bars are made up of coloured segments – there are 11 coloured segments and one grey segment, a total of 12 segments.

Each of the 11 colours represents the number of districts whose rainfall readings for a week (the week till the date given) fall within the parameters given in the accompanying legend. There are three groups of colours: three segments in the ‘normal’ ranges, four segments in the ‘excess’ ranges and four segments in the ‘deficient’ ranges. Grey represents no data for that week.

The gradation of the segments is based on, but is not a copy of, the grades used by the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation’s (FAO) Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) indicators for precipitation. The numbers that we use are from the IMD’s Hydrometeorology Division, which releases its ‘rainfall departures’ table every week. We take these numbers, reprocess them and redistribute them across the 11 grades.

It is a much more readily readable graph and provides for quick interpretation. The grades are finer than the six used by the IMD: normal (+19% to -195), excess (+20% to +59%), large excess (+60% or more), deficient (-20% to -59%), large deficient (-60% to -99%), no rain (-100%).

Our index, in which most segments are of 20 percentage points, is designed for local administrations – in districts but also municipal bodies – to take their cues from weekly signals and prepare if need be for a drought-like situation with water shortages or a flood-like situation with inundation.

How does it work in practice? Let’s look at the district of Guna, in Madhya Pradesh, in the meteorological sub-division of Western MP. The first two monsoon weeks, ending 5 June and 12 June, Guna received no rain (that is, -100% of the rainfall it normally receives in those weeks) and that corresponds to the D4 indicator. The next week, ending 19 June, it received -29% which is D1, the fourth week (26 June) it slipped back to -72% which is D3, the following week (3 July) it improved to -32% which is again D1 and in the sixth week (10 July) Guna received +34% which took it into the E1 grade.

Normally, a district that has received no rainfall or neglible rainfall for six weeks becomes a candidate for a drought-like condition – water sources after the long and hot summer have dried up and crops become parched. If such conditions continue for another two weeks, the state administration must roll out relief measures.

In our example, for the five weeks until the week of 3 July Guna had two D4s, one D3 and two D1s before coming out of the D grades. Our index gives the district (or town) administration the means with which to set their own triggers for action. If the water sources in the district were still at 10%-15% of their water holding capacities by the week of 3 July, then they could consult the medium term forecasts to gauge whether likely rainfall will be enough to hold off relief action. If not, and stored water slipped under 10% with uncertain forecasts, they could ask for relief and issue appropriate crop advisories.

Our index graph – the stacked and segmented bar chart I am sorely tempted to call a ‘signature’ – is a representation of the numbers in the rainweeks table we compile. This table has 684 components which are the districts, each of which has a rainfall reading for the week given (in millimetres) and a rainfall departure (in %). The graph is a set of stacked bars for each week, with each segment sized according to the number of districts in the grade that the segment corresponds to.

What does the index graph for six weeks tell us? The first two monsoon weeks were alarming, with 342 and then 356 districts in the D4 grade. The situation has slowly improved thereafter, with the latest week, that of 10 July, being the best so far – it has 80 districts in the N1 grade. That last week also has for the first time in monsoon 2019 more E grade districts than D grade districts. What needs to be looked out for is districts that have been in the D4 and D3 grades for four and more weeks and whose recovery is patchy. That monitoring becomes much easier with the Indiaclimate District Rainfall Adequacy Index.

Rahul Goswami

Heavy rain alert for Bihar, Uttar Pradesh

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Heavy and very heavy rainfall is expected today 19 July and until 22 July in Bihar, eastern Uttar Pradesh and sub-Himalayan West Bengal. The India Meteorological Department has issued a heavy rainfall alert for these regions.

These are the districts which will be the most affected:
In Bihar – Paschim Champaran, Gopalganj, Purbi Champaran, Siwan, Chhapra, Muzaffarpur, Sitamarhi, Madhubani, Darbhanga, Supaul, Saharsa, Madhepura, Purnia, Katihar, Kishanganj, Araria.
In Uttar Pradesh – Pilibhit, Shahjahanpur, Kheri, Hardoi, Sitapur, Shrawasti, Bahraich, Gonda, Balrampur, Basti, Sidharthnagar, Sant Kabir Nagar, Gorakhpur, Deoria, Maharajganj, Kushinagar.

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These are the five river sub-basins of the Ganga basin which are affected:
Gomti – including the Kathna, Sarayan, Kalyani rivers. Cities in this sub-basin – Sitapur, Hardoi, Lucknow, Rae Bareli, Sultanpur, Jaunpur.
Ghaghara – including the Saryu, Rapti, Chhoti Gandak rivers. Cities in this sub-basin – Lakhimpur, Shrawasti, Gonda, Faizabad, Basti, Gorakhpur, Kushinagar, Deoria, Siwan, Ballia.
Ghaghara confluence to Gomti confluence – including Chhoti Saryu and Mangal rivers. Cities in this sub-basin – Faizabad, Nizamabad, Azamgarh, Mau, Ghazipur, Buxar, Bhojpur, Chandauli.
Kosi – including Kamala, Pipra, Dhemra rivers. Cities in this sub-basin – Sheohar, Sitamarhi, Darbhanga, Supaul, Madhepura, Saharsa, Kishanganj, Khagaria.
Bhagirathi – including Fariyani Nadi and Kamla rivers. Cities in this sub-basin – Araria, Purnia, Sahibganj, Malda (West Bengal).

In the Middle Ganga plains, the water drainage lines govern the human occupancy of land, particularly the agricultural land and settlements. The rivers meet at acute angles and several tributaries form parallel or sub-parallel lines to the main stream. The major rivers that meet the main stream in the middle plain are the Gandak, the Kosi, the Sone and other small tributaries of Ganga like the Tons, the Karmansa, the Chatar, the Jargo, the Karnauti, the Khejuri on the west of the Sone and those on the east of the Sone are the Punpun, the Mohini and the Chandan.

Floods are recurring feature in this region particularly in the North Ganga plains. Almost all rivers in this middle plain develop a capacity to spill over in the monsoon period and are notoriously dynamic in character, particularly the Rapti, the Ghaghara, the Gandak, the Kosi, the Sone and the main Ganga itself.

North-East India reels under rain

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A village threatened by rising floodwaters in Arunachal Pradesh. Image: Arunachal Times

A village threatened by rising floodwaters in Arunachal Pradesh. Image: Arunachal Times

Torrential rain in north-east India has caused rivers to swell with water, several above their danger marks, and has isolated entire districts. Reports from Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya – states that have experienced heavy to very heavy rain over the last four days – indicate a situation for the region that is approaching an emergency.

A father carries his child to school in waterlogged Anil Nagar, Guwahati. Image: PTI/Express

A father carries his child to school in waterlogged Anil Nagar, Guwahati. Image: PTI/Express

The Indian Express has reported that thousands of people in Assam have been affected with several rivers, including the Brahmaputra, overflowing their banks. The rivers have breached embankments, inundated villages and damaged standing crops, affecting over 80,000 people, according to the state disaster management body.

The Arunachal Times has reported that the districts of Upper Siang, Dibang Valley and Anjaw are cut off from the region due to torrential rainfall which has triggered flash floods and landslides at various locations. Major rivers in Arunachal Pradesh including the Siang are in spate. The Echo of Arunachal has reported that Pasighat, the state’s oldest administrative town, is under threat of inundation and the provision of water and electricity to town inhabitants has stopped.

India braces for cyclone Hudhud

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Insat-3D’s view of the path inland of Hudhud at 1730 IST (5:30pm IST) on 12 October. The cyclonic storm is now moving north-northwest through Odisha into Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and south Bihar. Image: IMD

Insat-3D’s view of the path inland of Hudhud at 1730 IST (5:30pm IST) on 12 October. The cyclonic storm is now moving north-northwest through Odisha into Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and south Bihar. Image: IMD

Oct 14 – The Armed Forces have further stepped up their rescue and relief operations in the coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. The Press Information Bureau has reported that eight ‘composite’ Army teams have been deployed in Vishakhapatnam and another eight teams in Srikakulam.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi examining pictures of destruction caused by Cyclone HudHud, at Vizag Collectorate, on 14 October 2014. Image: PIB

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Andhra Pradesh chief minister N Chandrababu Naidu examining pictures of destruction caused by Cyclone HudHud, at Vizag Collectorate, on 14 October 2014. Image: PIB

The Indian Air Force has deployed C-17, C130J, AN-32, IL-76, Mi-17 and Chetak aircraft and helicopters for rescue and relief work. A total of 120 tonnes of essential supplies have been airlifted to Visakhapatnam from Vijayawada and Rajamundry, while essential supplies have also been marshalled at the Naval airfield at Visakhapatnam. Until the evening of 14 October, 36 sorties were made towards relief operations. Two road clearance teams of Army have been employed in the north of Srikakulum district and the road between Achutapuram and Vizag has been cleared by the armed forces teams.

An aerial survey was conducted by C-130J of the IAF and P-8I of the Navy with satellite imagery having been used to assess the impact of cyclone Hudhud while coastal reconnaissance is being done by the Coast Guard. Additional Engineer Units of the Army are being flown to Visakhapatnam.

Oct 12 – The IMD has issued its evening alert on cyclone Hudhud. The 1700 IST (5:00pm IST) alert contains a heavy rainfall warning and a wind warning.

Heavy rainfall warning: Rainfall at most places with heavy (6.5-12.4 cm) to very heavy falls (12.5-24.4 cm) at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (>24.5 cm) would occur over West and East Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram and Srikakulam districts of north Andhra Pradesh and Ganjam, Gajapati, Koraput, Rayagada, Nabarangpur, Malkangiri, Kalahandi, Phulbani districts of south Odisha during next 24 hrs. Rainfall would occur at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Krishna, Guntur and Prakasham districts of Andhra Pradesh and north Odisha during the same period. Rainfall at most places with heavy falls at a few places would occur over south Chattisgarh, adjoining Telangana and isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north Chattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Bihar.

Cyclone Hudhud will degrade into a severe cyclonic storm, then a cyclonic storm and by 13 October morning into a deep depression. Until 14 October it will continue to pose a danger with heavy rainfall and high winds. This IMD table explains why.

Cyclone Hudhud will degrade into a severe cyclonic storm, then a cyclonic storm and by 13 October morning into a deep depression. Until 14 October it will continue to pose a danger with heavy rainfall and high winds. This IMD table explains why.

Press Information Bureau distributes very useful railway helpline numbers.

Press Information Bureau distributes very useful railway helpline numbers.

Wind warning: Current gale wind speed reaching 130-140 kmph gusting to 150 kmph would decrease gradually to 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph during next 3 hours and to 80-90 kmph during subsequent 6 hours over East Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram and Srikakulam districts of North Andhra Pradesh. Wind speed of 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph would prevail over Koraput, Malkangiri, Nabarangpur and Rayagada districts during next 6 hrs and 50 to 60 kmph during subsequent 12 hrs. Squally wind speed reaching upto 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph would also prevail along and off West Godavari and Krishna districts of Andhra Pradesh, Ganjam and Gajapati districts of Odisha, south Chattisgarh and adjoining districts of north Telangana during next 12 hours.

Andhra Pradesh helpline numbers here. (Thanks to Ankur Singh ‏@ankurzzzz)

Andhra Pradesh helpline numbers here. (Thanks to Ankur Singh ‏@ankurzzzz)

Odisha district control room phone numbers have been distributed thanks to eodisha.org.

They are: Mayurbhanj 06792 252759, Jajpur 06728 222648, Gajapati 06815 222943, Dhenkanal 06762 221376, Khurda 06755 220002, Keonjhar 06766 255437, Cuttack 0671 2507842, Ganjam 06811 263978, Puri 06752 223237, Kendrapara 06727 232803, Jagatsinghpur 06724 220368, Balasore 06782 26267, Bhadrak 06784 251881.

There are reports on twitter that the leading edge of cyclone Hudhud crossed the coast at around 1030 IST (0500 UTC). The reported maximum wind speed is just above 200 kmph which means the destructive force threatens structures too.

This tweet means the western ‘wall’ of the cyclone has now crossed completely – it has taken just under two hours. The eastern ‘wall’ crossing will now begin.

Navy officials warn that there will be a lull in the storm at around 11.30 am, but the storm will again intensify after that for a few hours.
Zee News has a list of cancelled and curtailed trains.
At least 400,000 people have been evacuated from the coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha states as authorities aimed for zero casualties.

Oct 11 -Where is Cyclone Hudhud and how fast is it moving towards land? The India Meteorological Department has said in its most recent alert – 1430/2:30pm on 11 October – that “the Very Severe Cyclonic Storm” is now about 260 kilometres south-east of Visakhapatnam and 350 km south-south-east of Gopalpur. IMD expects the cyclone to travel north-west and cross the coast of north Andhra Pradesh, near Visakhapatnam, by mid-morning on 12 October 2014.

The projected path of the cyclone and its outer rainbands, which in the case of Hudhud are around 80 km thick measured from the eye. Image: GDACS

The projected path of the cyclone and its outer rainbands, which in the case of Hudhud are around 80 km thick measured from the eye. Image: GDACS

Around 100,000 people have been evacuated in Andhra Pradesh to high-rise buildings, shelters and relief centres, with plans to move a total of 300,000 to safety. Authorities in Odisha said they were monitoring the situation and would, if necessary, move 300,000 people most at risk.

The evacuation effort was comparable in scale to the one that preceded Cyclone Phailin exactly a year ago, and which was credited with minimising the fatalities to 53. When a huge storm hit the same area 15 years ago, 10,000 people died.

Authorities have been stocking cyclone shelters with dry rations, water purification tablets and generators. They have opened up 24-hour emergency control rooms and dispatched satellite phones to officials in charge of vulnerable districts.

IMD’s table of wind speeds at the surface (sea level) brought by Hudhud. Note the exceptionally strong winds between 2330/11:30pm on 11 October and 1130/11:30am on 12 October.

IMD’s table of wind speeds at the surface (sea level) brought by Hudhud. Note the exceptionally strong winds between 2330/11:30pm on 11 October and 1130/11:30am on 12 October.

The AP government has cancelled leaves of employees and has asked everyone to remain on duty on the weekend.  In Vizag, where the cyclone is expected to make landfall, the administration has opened 175 shelters and moved close to 40,000 people from the coastal villages. In Srikakulam, people of 250 villages in 11 mandals which may be affected have been evacuated.

Vishakhapatnam, Bhimunipatnam, Chittivalasa and Konada are expected to face storm surges of over 1 metre. Source: GDACS

Vishakhapatnam, Bhimunipatnam, Chittivalasa and Konada are expected to face storm surges of over 1 metre. Source: GDACS

While human casualties are not expected due to the massive evacuation, power and telecommunication lines will be uprooted leading to widespread disruption. A warning has been issued that flooding and uprooted trees will cut off escape routes, national and state highways and traffic is being regulated to ensure that no one is caught in the flash floods caused by heavy rains.

Officials said that National Disaster Response Force teams have been strategically placed along the coast to be deployed wherever they are required. Railways has cancelled all trains passing through the three districts which are likely to be affected.

The IMD has issued a “Heavy Rainfall Warning” which has said that driven by the cyclonic winds, rainfall at most places along the AP and Odisha coast will be heavy (6.5–12.4cm) to very heavy (12.5–24.4 cm). These places include West and East Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram and Srikakulam districts of north Andhra Pradesh and Ganjam, Gajapati, Koraput, Rayagada, Nabarangpur, Malkangiri, Kalahandi, Phulbani districts of south Odisha.

This panel of four images shows the wind patterns of the cyclone at different altitudes. Top left is at 1,000 millibars (mb) of atmospheric pressure which is around sea level, top right is at 850 mb which is at around 1,500 metres high, bottom left is at 700 mb which is at around 3,500 metres, and bottom right is at 500 mb which is at around 5,000 metres. The direction of the greenish lines shows the winds rushing into the cyclonic centre. The visualisations have been collected from the ‘earth.nullschool.net’, which visually processes global weather conditions forecast by supercomputers and updated every three hours.

This panel of four images shows the wind patterns of the cyclone at different altitudes. Top left is at 1,000 millibars (mb) of atmospheric pressure which is around sea level, top right is at 850 mb which is at around 1,500 metres high, bottom left is at 700 mb which is at around 3,500 metres, and bottom right is at 500 mb which is at around 5,000 metres. The direction of the greenish lines shows the winds rushing into the cyclonic centre. The visualisations have been collected from the ‘earth.nullschool.net’, which visually processes global weather conditions forecast by supercomputers and updated every three hours.

The India Meteorological Department said on the evening of 10 October that the “Very Severe Cyclonic Storm” is centered near latitude 15.0ºN and longitude 86.8ºE about 470 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 520 km south-southeast of Gopalpur. This was the fix IMD had on the centre of the cyclone at 1430 IST on 10 October 2014.

Here are the salient points from news reports released during the afternoon of 10 October:

Cyclone Hudhud will cross the north Andhra Pradesh coast on October 12 and is expected to make landfall close to Visakhapatnam, according to the Cyclone Warning Centre (CWC) at Visakhapatnam. “It is forecast that Hudhud, which is already a severe cyclonic storm, will intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm in next 12 hours. Hudhud is likely to make landfall on October 12 close to Visakhapatnam,” said IMD’s Hyderabad centre.

Cyclone Hudhud has moved closer to the coast of Odisha and eight districts of the state are likely to be affected by it. The districts likely to be affected by the cyclone are Ganjam, Gajapati, Rayagada, Koraput, Malkangiri, Nabarangpur, Kalahandi and Kandhamal. All these districts have been provided with satellite phones for emergency and constant vigil was being maintained on the rivers like Bansadhara, Rusikulya and Nagabali as heavy rain is expected in southern districts.

With cyclone Hudhud fast approaching the states of Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh today spoke to the chief ministers of the three states on the steps being taken to deal with the situation. Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik sought satellite phones which could be used in case high-speed winds disturbed the telecommunication system.

According to the India Meteorological Department, the wind speeds of cyclone Hudhud will be less than what the east coast experienced during Phailin in October 2013. The wind speed during cyclone Phailin was nearly 210 kmph, which made the cyclone the second-strongest ever to hit India’s coastal region. The country had witnessed its severest cyclone in Odisha in 1999.

Frequent updates and advisories can also be found at GDACS – the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (a cooperation framework under the UN umbrella). GDACS provides real-time access to web-based disaster information systems and related coordination tools.

Cities that will directly be affected by cyclone Hudhud are Vishakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh, Jagdalpur in Chhattisgarh, Vizianagaram in AP, Bhogapuram in AP, and Anakapalle in AP.

Climate change is not the only villain

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A woman weeps at the site of her home, devastated by floods in Kuppar village near Jammu, in Jammu and Kashmir, India. Photo: Thomson Reuters Foundation / Ashutosh Sharma

A woman weeps at the site of her home, devastated by floods in Kuppar village near Jammu, in Jammu and Kashmir, India. Photo: Thomson Reuters Foundation / Ashutosh Sharma

About 200 kilometres separates Srinagar, in the valley of Kashmir in India, from the wide and flat northern plains of Pakistan’s Punjab province, the land between Gujranwala and Sialkot. The river that links these two regions, on either side of the border between two countries, is the Jhelum and its many mountain-fed tributaries. From early September, rains that are torrential in volume and frequency for the region steadily fed the streams, swelled the rivers and then rushed through the settlements and towns of northern Pakistan and India.

On both sides of the Pakistan-India border the scene is depressingly similar. The toll of the dead will not be known until the waters drain, and even then will be estimates, as they always are. Until two days ago, 220 or 230 was the number of lives reported lost in both countries. The number of lives disrupted, displaced and reduced to misery is far greater – more than 100,000 have been rescued by the Indian Army in the state of Jammu and Kashmir. In Pakistan too it has been its army that has performed extraordinary feats of rescue and provided relief when every other administrative mechanism failed, but as the waters continued to gather in volume and speed, the September floods are already estimated to have affected more than a million in Pakistan.

A couple wades through a flooded road after heavy rains in Lahore, Pakistan, on 4 September 2014. Photo: Reuters / Mohsin Raza

A couple wades through a flooded road after heavy rains in Lahore, Pakistan, on 4 September 2014. Photo: Reuters / Mohsin Raza

There has been mourning and resignation, for lives lost and for homes destroyed, but there is also anger in both Pakistan’s Punjab and India’s Jammu and Kashmir. Economic need and the search for livelihoods has brought migrants into urban settlements, while older and more established households have sought to better their standards of living. Overlooked every single year, despite at least one emergency caused by natural phenomena, has been implementing the regulations needed for fast-growing settlements in flood-prone regions. Both countries have national disaster management authorities, and yet the complaint most commonly heard by those escaping floodwaters and by those seeking relief is: where was the warning and where was the help when we needed it?

The very recent history in India (the catastrophic rain and landslides in Uttarakhand in 2013) and in Pakistan (the record flooding of 2010) of natural disasters appears not to have led to the institutionalisation of a culture that is willing to learn from past misfortune. In both countries, media has reported scores of survivors praising swift and selfless action by the armed forces and at the same time condemning inaction by local and provincial authorities.

Climate change and its impacts has become a catch-all villain for the record floods and the devastation they have caused (and continue to). But amongst the complex menu of reasons for the failure of systems and responses, several others stand out in bolder relief. The encroachment by galloping urbanisation of river catchment areas, unregistered and illegal construction (both residential and commercial) along river banks and the blind conversion of wetlands into agricultural lands has, in both countries, turned historically familiar floods into fearsome deathtraps.

When the waters ebb and families can reunite, both Pakistan and India must together confront the real reasons behind the destruction and toll wrought by the floods of September 2014.

Flood waters batter North India, Pakistan

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Women and children being transported in a boat through a flooded road to a safer place during incessant rains in Srinagar. Photo: The Hindu

Four days of very heavy rain has affected districts in northern India and north-eastern Pakistan, causing damage and deaths, and leading to continuing misery in Pakistan. In Jammu and Kashmir, the death toll is 160 while in Pakistan it is 170.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Jammu on Sunday to personally review the situation in the flood-hit state after over 160 people lost their lives in the worst floods to affect Jammu and Kashmir in 60 years.

Accumulated rainfall from 2-5 September for the north India and north-eastern Pakistan regions.

Accumulated rainfall from 2-5 September for the north India and north-eastern Pakistan regions.

Floods and landslides, due to very heavy rains, affected parts of Jammu and Kashmir while in Pakistan very heavy rains continue, causing floods in parts of Punjab and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority announced that “Very High to Exceptionally High Flood Level” is likely to continue in the Chenab and Jhelum along with their associated streams for the next two days.

On 4 September a bus, filled to capacity with 52 members of a wedding group, was on its way to Lam, around 120 km from Jammu city, when it was hit by surging waters of the Gambhir river. Only three people survived the accident.

The state capital of Srinagar also braced for major floods with the Jhelum, Kashmir’s main river, flowing more than 2.13 metres (seven feet) above the danger mark. Vast swathes of Srinagar remain inundated. The 300-km-long Jammu-Srinagar national highway also closed for traffic after two landslides in the Ramban district left hundreds of vehicles stranded. South Kashmir’s Anantnag and Kulgam districts are among the worst hit, with at least 50 villages under water.

A flooded ward in Srinagar. Photo: Waseem Andrabi / Hindustan Times

A flooded ward in Srinagar. Photo: Waseem Andrabi / Hindustan Times

The Indian Army has evacuated 11,000 people to safety by deploying 100 columns of troops in flood-hit areas of the state. About 2,000 people have been provided food and temporary shelter in Jammu and Kashmir. A total of 100 Army columns (each column is 75-100 troops), 13 teams of Army engineers are working in the flood-affected regions of the state. The Army’s ‘Mission Sahayata’ is rescuing people trapped in flooded villages, isolated houses and multi-storied buildings in the inundated areas all over Kashmir, with tented shelter being provided to those who have lost their homes to the floodwaters.

Torrential monsoon rains have again wreaked havoc in Pakistan’s largest province Punjab and in Pakistan-administered Kashmir since 4 September. A Pakistan Meteorological Department report given to the Indus River Commission – which looks after Indus, Jhelum and Chenab rivers – said on September 5 that around 0.9 million cusecs (cubic feet per second, equal to over 25,000 cumecs, or cubic metres per second) of additional water was flowing down the Himalayan rivers, according to Ghulam Rasul, Chief Meteorological Officer. Rasul said the floods would have a devastating impact in Kashmir, Punjab and Sindh due to lack of preparations and absence of water management strategies.

Map of the flood-affected areas from the from European Commission Humanitarian Aid department.

Map of the flood-affected areas from the from European Commission Humanitarian Aid department.

However, Sindh and Punjab are expected to face severe flooding in the coming days, the Pakistan Meteorological Department warned on Sunday. A press release issued by the Meteorological Department said that water levels in the Indus River at Sukkur and Guddu Barrage are constantly increasing, and consequently, there will be severe floods on September 13 and 14 in both provinces.

Ahmad Kamal, a spokesman for Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority, said at least 69 people have died in the eastern Punjab province since Thursday. He said another 48 people died in the Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and 11 died in northern Gilgit Baltistan province.

Deadly negligence

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A resident looks at the debris of her damaged house after a landslide at Malin village, Pune district, in Maharashtra on 30 July 2014. Photo: Reuters/Stringer

A resident looks at the debris of her damaged house after a landslide at Malin village, Pune district, in Maharashtra on 30 July 2014. Photo: Reuters/Stringer

Two months of monsoon that have delivered rainfall considerably below normal have given way to an end July and early August that has brought torrents of rain in some locations, and with it destruction and the loss of life.

In the last week, there has been a landslide in the Pune district, western Maharashtra, in which the death toll has risen to over 100. There has been a landslide in Nepal, along the Bhote Kosi river, around 120 kilometres from Kathmandu, which is reported to have killed over 100 and displaced thousands. The situation there has led to an emergency in north Bihar, through which the Kosi flows, with some 65,000 people being evacuated from nine districts.

In the Bay of Bengal, 40 trawlers are reported to have gone missing in bad weather; there are estimated to be some 650 fishermen on board the vessels. In the Munshiganj district of central Bangladesh, about 40 kilometres from Dhaka, a ferry on the Padma river sank with about 200 on board.

Every one of these events is repeated every monsoon – landslide, flood, river ferry sinking, fishing trawlers missing at sea – with little indication that learning takes place about how to contain the impacts and how to prepare for them when they become threats.

The threat from the Kosi developed after a massive landslide blocked the main course of Bhote Kosi river, a tributary of the Kosi, in Sindhupalchok district of Nepal. The landslide brought down rock which has dammed the river, immediately forming a large lake. Authorities in Nepal have been trying to release the water without endangering downstream regions.

The central government has said (o4 August Monday) that there is no immediate threat of a flood. India’s Home Ministry, the Nepal Water Commission, India’s Central Water Commission and India’s National Crisis Management Committee are coordinating preparations, relief and technical expertise. The Bihar state government is carrying our the evactuations to avoid a situation like 2008, when a breach in the Kosi embankment at Kushaha in Nepal caused one of the most devastating floods.

The landslide in Nepal and the emergency in downstream Bihar has again revived the debate as to whether a dam would help solve the problem of floods in north Bihar. Since 1945 there have been commissions to study the problem and make their recommendations, and proposed dams have been abandoned for compelling reasons – that the river valleys have unstable foundations, that the region is a high-risk seismic zone, that the reservoirs would silt up far sooner than expected, and that the costs would be prohibitive.

The tragic incidents in Maharashtra, in the Bay of Bengal, and in Munshiganj (Bangladesh) have much more to do with the wilful neglect of conditions that have built up a cumulative threat. The landslide in Pune district which has buried portions of a village, its residents and cattle, was according to a number of media reports the result of factors that included what appears to be no recognition of the most obvious risks. The hill above the village of Malin is reported to have been the site of wind turbines (which need heavy machinery to erect them) and also farming that used heavy equipment to level the top of the hill. Whichever factor is true, the use to which hill land was put was a threat to the settlement at its base, and little thought was given to monsoon conditions.

That such a large group of trawlers went missing in the Bay of Bengal near Kakdwip in South 24 Parganas district of West Bengal has to do with economic reasons, which media reports will at this stage not uncover. Three of the trawlers are reported as having capsized and authorities in West Bengal are said to have ‘traced’ 25 of the vessels. The question is: when squally weather and forecasts of heavy rain trigger warning to fishermen, why do they ignore these warnings and risk their lives? The usual answer is loan economics, for the trawler owners can’t afford delays in servicing the loans with which they bought the vessels, and are under pressure to find and sell fish, which is when safety considerations are ignored.

Similar considerations lead in Bangladesh to riverine ferries – a common mode of transport in great deltas – being overloaded to far beyond their capacities. The monsoon brings with it weather conditions that demand safety first, but when economic desperation and plain greed set in, elementary precautions that are meant to save lives are discarded.

New El Niño outlook

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Sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean. Image from the earth|nullschool real time visualisation of wind and ocean conditions

Sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean. Image from the earth|nullschool real time visualisation of wind and ocean conditions

There is a 60% likelihood of an El Niño being fully established between June and August, increasing to 75-80% for the October to December period, according to an El Niño Update issued by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). Many countries have already started preparing for the arrival of El Niño, which is associated with regional-scale drought and flood situations in different parts of the world and has a warming influence on global average surface temperatures.

El Niño is characterised by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, coupled with typical atmospheric circulation patterns. It is a natural phenomenon with a recurring interval of 2-7 years and has a major impact on the climate around the world. The last El Niño was in 2009-2010.

The latest WMO outlooks suggest that central tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures are likely to warm further into the third quarter of 2014, while the atmospheric patterns associated with El Niño are also expected to form and strengthen.

The WMO expects that El Niño will reach peak strength during the fourth quarter and endure into the first few months of 2015 before dissipating. The substantially above-average oceanic heat content beneath the sea surface of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, triggered by strong westerly wind events earlier this year, suggested an event of significant strength. However, the delayed atmospheric response, and a potential lack of subsequent westerly wind events in the coming months, may limit the peak strength of the El Niño, said the WMO.

Already, the second quarter of 2014 set new global atmospheric heat records. According to NASA, this May was the hottest in the global measure, meanwhile, the Japanese Meteorological Agency marked the March-April period as the hottest spring in all of the past 130 years (NASA showed the same period was second hottest). Rising Pacific Ocean surface temperatures by themselves were enough, when combined with raging human greenhouse gas heat forcing, to nudge atmospheric temperatures into a new record range. But the emergence of full-blown El Niño will likely push current record readings even higher.