The India Climate Observatory

Commentary, action and research on climate and development in India

Chop suey climate calculations

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The China-USA ‘deal’ has shockingly ignored the central message of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, whose final synthesis has just been released. The evaluation made in this fifth report is not fundamentally different from the fourth (in 2007) but the confidence levels of the warnings issued is greater. Areas of uncertainty are becoming clearer and the concern of the contributing scientists is more obvious than ever before. They have used the phrase “virtually certain” (more than 99% probability) frighteningly often to describe likelihood of phenomena which affect our ecology and our habitats.

Special bulletin of the India Climate Watch on the China-USA climate 'deal'. [pdf, 91kb]

Special bulletin of the India Climate Watch on the China-USA climate ‘deal’. [pdf, 91kb]

The staged euphoria over this ‘deal’ does not obscure its non-binding nature. According to commentary from the People’s Republic, 2030 would be set as the peak year for its soaring greenhouse gas emissions, while the USA said it would cut emissions by more than a quarter from 2005 levels by 2025.

Data from the International Energy Agency show that for the USA, total final oil products consumption in 2012 was 717 million tons of oil equivalent (mtoe; in 2007 the quantity was 829 mtoe) while the totals for all energy sources were 1,432 mtoe in 2012 which was a reduction from 1,572 mtoe in 2007).

In China, total final oil products consumption in 2012 was 421 mtoe (in 2007 it was 308 mtoe) while the use of coal continued to rise – 558 mtoe in 2012 whereas it was 480 mtoe in 2007. In China the totals for all energy sources was 1,703 mtoe in 2012 which is 28% above what it was (1,326 mtoe) five years earlier.

This special bulletin of the India Climate Watch explains the trade and manufacturing, geo-strategic ambitions and power jockeying, these are the objectives behind the so-called ‘deal’ between China and USA on ‘cutting’ carbon emissions and pollution. This special bulletin urges the government of India to take moral leadership of the inter-governmental process towards lower emissions and the phasing out of fossil fuels.

India Climate Watch bulletin

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ICW1_pic_for_ICP

The new government is speaking on climate change with confidence and purpose, and the administration of the Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change is, like other line departments providing the public with more information and in greater detail. The new Indian Climate Watch bulletin has said, “Such an approach needs to be at least the minimum benchmark that ensures engagement and participation between government and citizens, government and industry, government and stakeholders who have not and continue not to find adequate representation when policy and planning id discussed and decided.” For this new and decisive direction, the bulletin added, the ministry under Prakash Javadekar deserves congratulations.

Download the India Climate Watch bulletin 2014 01 here (pdf, 122kb)

Download the India Climate Watch bulletin 2014 01 here (pdf, 122kb)

The new India Climate Watch bulletin has examined the recent statements made by the Ministry and provides an outline of the socio-economic contexts that must guide them. Several positives and points of concern are found:

  • The MoEF is functioning in a more transparent manner concerning climate change in India, and is discussing inter-governmental and multilateral meetings and conferences well ahead of time.
  • Javadekar is talking about finance, technology and time-tables pertaining to the international climate negotiations. He is also talking about a more active and larger role that India will play.
  • The MoEF is currently speaking on its own and the statements of the Government of India do not appear to reflect a common position held by key sectors such as agriculture and food, water resources, health, renewable energy, and petroleum.
  • The central government is discussing India’s international role in climate negotiations, in particular the Conference of Parties, CoP, that are held annually under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). There is scarce attention paid to climate change matters and responses in the states.

However, much more clarity is needed on the following points made by the central government through Javadekar and the MoEF. Read why in the India Climate Watch bulletin 2014 01 (pdf, 122kb).