The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued its forecast for the 2016 hot weather season (April to June). The forecast shows that during the 2016 hot weather season, temperatures (mean, maximum and minimum) in all the sub-divisions are likely to be above normal. All the temperatures (maximum, minimum and mean) of most of the subdivisions from northwest India, Kerala from south India and Vidharbha from Central India are likely to be above normal by 1.0° C or more. Read the full forecast document here (pdf).

The season averaged maximum temperatures of coastal Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Assam and Meghalaya, sub-Himalayan west Bengal and Sikkim, and NMMT – Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura – are likely to be warmer by 0.5° C and that of the remaining subdivisions are likely to warmer than normal by 0.5° to 1° C. The season averaged minimum temperatures of sub-Himalayan west Bengal and Sikkim, and NMMT are likely to be warmer than normal by <0.5° C and that of the remaining subdivisions are likely to warmer than normal by 0.5° to 1° C.

There is also a high probability (76%) of maximum temperatures in the core heat wave zone during the 2016 hot weather season to be above normal. The core heat wave zone covers the states of Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, the National Capital Territory and Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha and Telengana and the meteorological sub-divisions of Marathwada, Vidharbha, Madhya Maharashtra and coastal Andhra Pradesh. This in turn suggests high probability of moderate and severe heat wave conditions in the core heat wave zone during the hot weather season.

From this season, the IMD will also provide extended range forecasts (five–day averaged forecasts for the next 15 days) of heat wave conditions over the country. This will be based on the Dynamical Extended Range Forecasting System developed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) in Pune. The forecast will consist of the probability of occurrence of hot days, heat waves and severe heat waves for the next 15 days updated every fifth day from 1 April, 2016. The forecasts will be available on the IMD website.