Shankar Sharma – How suitable is coal based power policy for India?, Nov 08

How suitable is coal based power policy for India?

Synopsis: Integrated Energy Policy draft of the Planning Commission has propounded coal based power policy for the country. There are also few influential persons/ organizations advocating for such a policy. There has been a great rush to set up a large number of coal based power stations both in public and private sectors. The implications of having 70% coal power by 2031-32 are huge, and need to be considered holistically in the best interest of the society. The social, –

Preface
In recent days quite a few articles have appeared in the media strongly advocating the need to add lot of coal power generating capacity in the country, that too in terms of hundreds of thousands of MW in just two or three decades. We also notice the frequent comparison in this regard with China, which is known to have added a lot of coal power capacity during last 10 -15 years. International reports indicate that in China on an average one coal based power unit was commissioned every 15 days from Year 2000 onwards. In such a scenario it becomes prudent to consider the potential impact of such a policy in our country in respect of social and environmental aspects, and similar experiences elsewhere.

A comparison of the environmental disaster that is facing China because of its coal power policy will be worth noticing. With so much of coal power having been added in such a short period there is no escaping the colossal pollution because the carrying capacity of the nature there seems to have been exceeded. No surprise, hence, that China is considered the second biggest polluter in the world. The atmospheric pollution there seem to be so heavy that a survey has revealed that about 50% of the rivers covered in the survey were found to be unfit for drinking. So much so that when Beijing won the rights to host 2008 Olympics it had to undertake massive clean up operation in and around Beijing to make it acceptable for breathing easily. As a part of this clean up drive on an average one old coal power unit was decommissioned every month, as per another report.

What does all this say? China has not covered itself with any glory by adding coal power generating capacity at such a frenetic pace. At the most it appears that it has covered its environment with coal ash. International agencies have repeatedly reported that the coal and ash handling systems in China were not adequately efficient; nor the efficiency of pollution control devices and of boilers the best. The result has been a massive polluting operation in the name of electricity generation, because of which the society there has to suffer at the least for many decades to come. The emissions from coal power are a major contribution towards China’s dubious distinction of second largest emitter of green house gases.

Present Scenario
Further, few recent news items in our own country need special attention. The state-owned thermal power utility, NTPC Ltd, has complained that coal supplies to its thermal power plants were inadequate. Though this was nothing new as many coal based power stations across the country have been known to be experiencing the coal shortage for a number of years, the latest report is that official letter has gone in this regard from Power ministry to Coal ministry. A day later, the minister of State for Coal said. “There are no two opinions about the need to switch over to other modes of power generation ……. Coal-based power production has to be restricted”. Coal ministry officials claim that the demand and supply of coal to the power units was going to run neck and neck in times to come. This only indicates the seriousness of the problem of reliable coal supply.

Industry observers had been predicting such coal capacity constraints since many years. Now that the concerned ministry itself has expressed the inability to meet the large additional demand for coal, how prudent it will be to base our energy policy on Coal, which is anyway not going to last for not more than few decades?

India has approximately 75 coal-based thermal power stations generating about 66,000 MW, out of which 72 (about 64,000 MW) are catered by Coal India Limited (CIL). With 97% power coal supply responsibility with just one state owned public enterprise, it is anybody’s guess how the reliability of coal supply is likely to be if our coal power capacity is to be increased by about 5 times.

In this scenario it can only be termed as unfortunate that the Integrated Energy Policy, as developed by Planning Commission, has projected the need for a total generating capacity of about 800,000 MW by 2031-32, out of which about 70% may have to be coal based. If this target were to be realized it is difficult to imagine the chaos in the transport sector to move coal from one part of the country/ port to the power generation sites. Since the country’s coal and transport infrastructure is struggling to cater to the needs of the present installed capacity of about 80,000 MW, it is difficult to envisage the reliability of coal supply for about 560,000 MW capacity additionally. In addition, the issues involved in procuring the huge chunks of land (about 0.5 Million Acres for the additional capacity) plus the huge quantities of fresh water will be serious issues to deal with. In view of the fact that there have been massive oppositions to acquisition of agricultural lands for setting up of any type of large sized industries, it is hard to imagine how this massive addition of coal based power plants can be realized. It is very disappointing that the draft Integrated Energy Policy has not discussed the need for resources and the difficulties in achieving the 70% coal power target by 2031-32, and the implications of the same. At a time when agricultural sector of our economy is demanding more of land and fresh water resources to meet the food requirements of a growing population, and other sectors of economy like housing, industry, infrastructure etc. are competing for a fair share of land and fresh water resources, its is inconceivable that about 500,000 MW of additional coal power capacity will be get priority over other sectors to secure these resources.
A less known report from USA states that the coal-fired power plants throughout the world are the major sources of radioactive materials released to the environment, and that there are several serious implications of such radioactive emissions. This report with the title “Coal Combustion: Nuclear Resource or Danger” by Alex Gabbard suggests that coal combustion is more hazardous to health than nuclear power, and that it adds to the background radiation burden even more than that by nuclear power. It also suggests that if radiation emissions from coal plants were regulated, their capital and operating costs would increase, making coal-fired power less economically competitive. The authors of the report concluded that Americans living near coal-fired power plants are exposed to higher radiation doses than those living near nuclear power plants that meet government regulations. A similar scenario in Indian conditions and serious ramifications of it are not inconceivable. The society needs to ensure adequate safety precautions in this regard.

Coal Power and Global Warming
While the avowed policy of the government is to reduce the GHG emissions, huge addition of coal based power plants as proposed by Integrated Energy Policy will seriously aggravate the total GHG emission in the country. In view of the fact that about 24% of all GHG emissions and about 42% of CO2 emissions are associated with the fossil fuel burning in Power sector alone, the projected scenario of having about 500,000 MW of additional coal power capacity by 2032 will seriously jeopardise our country’s international standing, besides serious environmental issues because of heavy contribution to Global Warming. There have been a number of reports, which have provided ample evidences of coal power stations adversely impacting the local environment, polluting the fresh water sources, and affecting the yield of agricultural crops. There is no doubt amongst the scientific community, such as IPCC, that a tropical country like India will be impacted to a maximum extent from the Global Warming.

The fast receding Himalayan glaciers, increase in sea level rise as experienced in Sundarbans, unpredictable weather patterns etc. have all been experienced and confirmed in recent years. These corroborate the findings of a report titled as “BLUE ALERT “commissioned by Greenpeace, in which about 120 Million people are estimated to migrate to larger cities towards the second half of this century because of the direct/ indirect effects of Global Warming in the business-as-usual scenario. The colossal impact of such large scale migration to large cities, whose infrastructures are already stretched to limits, is hard to imagine. This report concludes by saying that Climate Change is the most serious environmental problem South Asia has ever faced, and in the absence of early policy intervention, it is likely to cause devastating social and economic problems for the region. Taking very cautious approach towards burning large quantities of fossil fuels should be the primary plank on which such positive policy interventions are needed. In this regard adding coal based power plants should be the last resort in meeting the legitimate demand for electricity.
For these and many other reasons a number of countries around the world are contemplating decommissioning of old and inefficient coal power plants, and also not approving new plants. The idea of clean coal power and carbon sequestration largely appears to be theories only so far, and may not turn out to be environmentally and commercially viable.

Table 1: Major issues with coal based power policy

Costs & Benefits and societal issues
The above discussed issues are particularly relevant to states like Karnataka which have no known fossil fuel reserves, and which is a highly water stressed state. The Karnataka’s CM is on record saying that locating coal power stations in the state is not economical because of the need to transport coal over long distances. He is reported to have said this at the time of signing the agreement with Chattisgarh to set up a coal power plant in that state for Karnataka’s use. It is ironical that the same state government is planning to set up few coal power stations, in addition to asking the central government for setting up two Ultra Mega Power Projects in Karnataka.

The efficiency of converting coal energy to electrical energy in Indian power stations is about 33% only. The world’s best technology claims that this can be increased to a maximum of about 39%. About 8 – 9% of such generated electrical energy gets consumed by the processes within the coal power station itself. With Transmission and Distribution loss level of about 30%, and end use loss of about 15% prevailing in the country, the overall efficiency in coal energy to electrical energy put into productive / economic use can be only of the order of about 10%. Compared to this efficiency the Solar Photo Voltaic systems, which are being used in India have efficiency of about 14%, and is expected to reach about 25% soon with improved material technology. Our society has to carefully consider this economic aspect of coal power before embracing coal based power policy.

The National Forest Policy recommends a forest & tree cover of 33% of the land surface for a healthy environment, whereas at present this percentage is said to be less than 20% both in Karnataka and India. The “Economics of Climate Change” by Sir Nicholas Stern has estimated that preventing deforestation is the quickest and cheapest way of reducing the Green House Gas (GHG) emissions. In this background it is worthy of notice that large addition of coal power capacity will reduce the forest cover at an accelerated pace, because most of the coal deposits are below or close to thick forests. Setting coal power stations in these areas will also demand sizable chunk of forests for buildings, coal and ash handling facilities, townships and transmission lines. It should be a matter of great concern to the civil society that while forests are well known to be very good sinks of CO2, setting up of coal power stations can not only reduce forest cover but will also result in large addition of GHG emissions.

If an objective study of costs V/S benefits of setting up a coal based power station is carried out, the direct and indirect costs to the society will be so heavy that the benefits will be tiny in comparison. Such analysis of costs V/S benefits in case of each coal based power station should be insisted for by the society for all future projects.

As demonstrated in a Greenpeace report “hiding behind the poor” a small percentage of high income earners in our cities are consuming a high percentage of the electricity generated, while the majority of the poor and rural population do not have even access to it. Elimination of such glaring inequity itself can reduce the real demand for electricity by a considerable margin.

The need to establish more and more of coal power stations has been associated with the power deficits prevailing in the country. The data for various states during last 10 years indicate that this deficit is mostly during the peak hours of the day, and the annual energy deficit has not been huge. In this context also the blind addition of coal based power stations is not advisable because they are essentially base load stations, which means they become optimally economical only when they are run for most time of the day / year. In the absence of continuous running the plant efficiency and economy of a coal power plant gets seriously affected, which will be at a huge cost to the society. A simulation study of Karnataka scenario indicates that the planned addition of a number of coal power stations by 2025 is likely to lead to an average Plant Load Factor of about 35% for all the coal power stations in the state. This situation will be in sharp contrast to about 90% PLF of NTPC’s stations.

Sustainable alternatives to coal power: a case study of Karnataka
It is also amazing that many people in influential positions are advocating adding hugely to the generating capacity through coal power technology without even mentioning the potential impact of such additional capacity on social and environmental aspects of our densely populated society. It talks volumes about the social responsibility of our leaders, and about the serious consequences of coal based power policy, to know that a senior person in decision making position of Karnataka Power Corporation has suggested that 25% of all fresh water availability in the state should be reserved for coal power generation. Our society would do well to take a holistic look at the electricity needs of all sections of the society without ignoring other needs of the society such as clean air, drinking water, agricultural and forest lands, right to live in one’s ancestral property without being forcibly evacuated etc. We have no other option but to take an “integrated energy resource management” approach which will include the highest possible operational efficiency of every asset, effective Demand Side Management, optimal energy conservation and wide spread use of new and renewable sources of energy. Table 2 shows the gross inefficiency prevailing in the power sector of the country, which alone provides a huge scope to increase virtually the net power availability by as high as 40 – 50%.

Table 2: Power Sector Efficiency in India

(Source: Integrated Energy Policy, Planning Commission)

Table 3: N&RE potential in India

(Source: MN&RE and other sources)

Table 4: Alternatives available for Karnataka to meet its electricity demand

(Source: Compiled from various sources including Integrated Energy Policy, Planning Commission)

An application of such a holistic approach, in a pilot study for Karnataka, has demonstrated that it is techno-economically feasible to meet fully the legitimate demand for electricity of all sections for next 10-15 years without having to add a single MW of generating capacity based on any conventional energy sources. There is a huge potential available for our society in the areas of energy efficiency, Demand Side Management, energy conservation and wide spread use of new and renewable sources of energy. Being a tropical country, India has tremendous potential through new & renewable energy (N&RE) sources, which has many advantages as compared to the conventional sources of energy. It would be a great disservice to burden the society with huge liabilities of coal based power stations without fully optimizing the use of existing electricity infrastructure. Keeping in view the social and environmental obligations to the present and future generations, the option to go for large size conventional energy sources should be only a last resort.

An application of such a holistic approach, in a pilot study for Karnataka, has demonstrated that it is techno-economically feasible to meet fully the legitimate demand for electricity of all sections for next 10-15 years without having to add a single MW of generating capacity based on any conventional energy sources. There is a huge potential available for our society in the areas of energy efficiency, Demand Side Management, energy conservation and wide spread use of new and renewable sources of energy. Being a tropical country, India has tremendous potential through new & renewable energy (N&RE) sources, which has many advantages as compared to the conventional sources of energy. It would be a great disservice to burden the society with huge liabilities of coal based power stations without fully optimizing the use of existing electricity infrastructure. Keeping in view the social and environmental obligations to the present and future generations, the option to go for large size conventional energy sources should be only as a last resort.

Instead of dreaming to blindly emulate Chinese practice of adding huge capacity addition of coal power units, it is essential to address effectively the pathetically low efficiencies in the usage of our existing power infrastructure. If we objectively take into account the operational inefficiencies in generation, transmission, distribution and utilization in India, the overall efficiency in the usage of the generated electricity for productive or developmental purposes is probably only about 50%, whereas at the international level it is known to be about 85 to 90%. With Aggregate T&D loss of about 33% and with about 40% loss in the agricultural pumping system (which itself is known to be consuming about 35% of all the electricity sold in the country) we can never hope to provide energy security to our masses without increasing the energy efficiency to a much higher level. With so much enthusiasm at various levels of the government to increase the generating capacity, it may even be possible to increase it by five times by 2031-32, as recommended by Planning Commission, but at a huge cost to the society. By that time our environment would have reached a point of no return.

In this context a recent report by Greenpeace deserves special attention. This report titled “energy {R}evolution, A SUSTAINABLE INDIA ENERGY OUTLOOK” with international authorship has dealt with the Indian energy scenario in good amount of detail, and has come up with a credible set of solutions. An important point highlighted in this report is the huge potential available in reducing the demand for energy without adversely affecting the legitimate needs of our society. This projection indicates the feasibility in reduction of about 38% in demand by 2050 as compared to the reference scenario of IEA. The study report is confident that by adopting suitable measures “by 2030 about 35% of India’s electricity could come from renewable energies” AND ” by 2050, 54% of primary energy demand will be covered by renewable energy sources”.

A hugely significant statement in this report, which many may find hard to accept in today’s scenario of deficits, is that “A more radical scenario – which takes the advanced projections of renewables industry into account – could even phase out coal by 2050. Dangerous Climate Change might force us to accelerate the development of renewables faster.” It is very pertinent to note that the credible model discussed in this report has indicated that it is possible to phase out coal based power stations by 2050 by taking appropriate measures.

What is most important in this report is the huge potential available to our society to move away from a vicious cycle of “addition of installed capacity – shortages – further addition – shortages – social & environmental catastrophe – further addition – shortages” to a sustainable energy scenario without shortages and with minimised risk of social & environmental catastrophe. In this background it must be stated that the integrated energy policy as adopted by the GoI has stated that even after the huge addition of about 5 times the present installed capacity for electricity generation by 2031-32 the country may not see energy security even by 2050.

Looking at the huge difficulties in adding huge generating capacity as experienced in the last few five year plans, when the additions were much less than the targeted capacity, it will be credible to assume that the country will continue to see chronic deficits indefinitely unless there is a paradigm shift. The other major issues of interest in this report are: the huge emphasis on energy efficiency at all levels, role of renewable energy sources as distributed energy sources, suitable tariff policies, and the massive reduction in GHG emissions possible from the proposed methodology.

It is very pertinent to note that there are unambiguous requirements under our constitution to protect the environment. Article 48A says: “Protection and improvement of environment and safeguarding of forests and wild life.—The State shall endeavour to protect and improve the environment and to safeguard the forests and wild life of the country.”
Article 51A says: “Fundamental duties.—It shall be the duty of every citizen of India—
(g) to protect and improve the natural environment including forests, lakes, rivers and wild life, and to have compassion for living creatures.”

It is relevant to mention here that it is not inconceivable to meet most of our electricity needs without basing our policy on coal. A recent report by Earth Policy Institute, USA has discussed the feasibility of meeting the electricity needs entirely without coal based power. In this report titled,”Time for Plan B: Cutting Carbon Emissions 80% by 2020”, it has been convincingly demonstrated that a good combination of efficiency improvement measures and renewable energy sources can eliminate the need for coal based power stations. In Indian scenario, if such feasibility appears to be unrealistic, the potential to drastically reduce the need for coal based power stations cannot be questioned.

IPCC has recommended that in order to prevent the temperature increase beyond 2 Degree Celsius the GHG emissions must peak latest by 2015, after which it should start decreasing sharply. Ignoring such a recommendation the integrated energy policy has advocated a coal based policy even for 2031-32. In view of all the above mentioned concerns MoEF should strongly recommend an objective review of coal based power policy for the country.

Our society must take tough decisions such as taking stock of the situation in an objective manner, and adopting a holistic approach to the needs of various aspects of our society than just adding coal based power plants. The present generation has the obligation not to leave polluted rivers or barren agricultural lands or degraded forests or mountains of ash to the future generations just to meet the insatiable demand for electricity of the present generation. The present generation will probably go down in the history of the mankind as being directly responsible either for saving the bio-diversity against so many odds or for leading to the destruction of human race.

Conclusions
The societal cost of coal power stations in the form of economic, social and environmental issues is so huge that it cannot be ignored in the name of development. At a time when the human kind is staring at the inevitable crises due to Global Warming, the necessity of coal power stations which are associated with about 42% of CO2 emissions worldwide must be reviewed carefully if we are to remain a welfare state. Many countries in the world are either denying clearances to new coal power stations and / or even decommissioning old power stations basically to minimise the GHG emissions. Our country, which has been boasting of a major initiative in the name of National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC), cannot go on blindly adding coal power stations because this will negate the very claim under NAPCC.

MoEF should seriously consider launching an objective analysis of the socio-environmental impact of coal power stations in the country through an independently funded study of one or two existing coal power stations in each state.

Since the sole objective of a coal power station is to generate electricity, the society must consider various benign options available to us instead of high impact coal power stations. In view of the serious consequences of coal power generation MoEF should not hesitate to insist on credible justification in the context of economic, social and environmental issues before considering environmental clearance for any new coal power station. The carrying capacity of the local environment should be objectively studied while considering the application for environmental clearance for a new coal power station by taking into account the cumulative effect of all industrial activities in a given area.

Shankar Sharma
Consultant to Electricity Industry
shankar.sharma2005@gmail.com