India Climate Watch Archives - The India Climate Observatory

Chop suey climate calculations

November 14, 2014 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

The China-USA ‘deal’ has shockingly ignored the central message of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, whose final synthesis has just been released. The evaluation made in this fifth report is not fundamentally different from the fourth (in 2007) but the confidence levels of the warnings issued is greater. Areas of uncertainty are becoming clearer and the concern of the contributing scientists is more obvious than ever before. They have used the phrase “virtually certain” (more than 99% probability) frighteningly often to describe likelihood of phenomena which affect our ecology and our habitats.

Special bulletin of the India Climate Watch on the China-USA climate ‘deal’. [pdf, 91kb]

The staged euphoria over this ‘deal’ does not obscure its non-binding nature. According to commentary from the People’s Republic, 2030 would be set as the peak year for its soaring greenhouse gas emissions, while the USA said it would cut emissions by more than a quarter from 2005 levels by 2025.

Data from the International Energy Agency show that for the USA, total final oil products consumption in 2012 was 717 million tons of oil equivalent (mtoe; in 2007 the quantity was 829 mtoe) while the totals for all energy sources were 1,432 mtoe in 2012 which was a reduction from 1,572 mtoe in 2007).

In China, total final oil products consumption in 2012 was 421 mtoe (in 2007 it was 308 mtoe) while the use of coal continued to rise – 558 mtoe in 2012 whereas it was 480 mtoe in 2007. In China the totals for all energy sources was 1,703 mtoe in 2012 which is 28% above what it was (1,326 mtoe) five years earlier.

This special bulletin of the India Climate Watch explains the trade and manufacturing, geo-strategic ambitions and power jockeying, these are the objectives behind the so-called ‘deal’ between China and USA on ‘cutting’ carbon emissions and pollution. This special bulletin urges the government of India to take moral leadership of the inter-governmental process towards lower emissions and the phasing out of fossil fuels.

At home and abroad

August 18, 2014 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

The size and diversity of India’s federal structure (36 states and union territories) is steering this government towards an arrangement wherein the assessment of development needs and outcomes is carried out at least at the state level. As the new India Climate Watch has pointed out, this is where India’s contribution to the international climate change negotiations appears quite out of phase with the climate aspect of development discussions and actions in these 36 states and union territories.

We ask whether the state action plans on climate change (some of which in their final forms are now several years old) are fit for the task of guiding policy at this level, a serious and urgent question which, in our view, ought to precede India’s taking of international positions on climate change adaptation and mitigation measures (including financing and technology transfer).

With the meeting of the BASIC group of countries on 7-8 August 2014 in New Delhi, a stretch of negotiating has begun for India which will continue with greater intensity until the 21st Conference of Parties in Paris in December 2015. This is seen by climate negotiators as the final stretch of the Kyoto Protocol period and we can expect a flurry of weighty summations to be produced during this time, which may influence how the successor to the Kyoto Protocol will begin to be framed, a procedure that COP 21 will be devoted to.

For India, this period will proceed in parallel with the first term of the NDA government, which will be expected to deliver much more substantial leadership on matters of equity in the international arena, and which is already committed to strengthening the federal approach at home. Our view is that these are not exclusive, and that one can guide the other.

Under direction from the central government, our states have been preparing climate action plans geared to their conditions. The Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change reports that 28 of these plans have been prepared, and how these will integrate with the economic and social imperatives that each state government frames differently has not been explored. Until that happens as a policy commitment, the state action plans remain academic exercises with action on the ground in the form of relatively small projects channelled through ‘technology transfer’ agencies. These may help indicate how feasible a future course is but which is weak without state government and industry resolve. [Click this link for the India Climate Watch 2014 03 (pdf 186kb).]

India Climate Watch bulletin, on Budget 2014-15

July 14, 2014 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

The first Union Budget of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance government has focused on the growth of the economy. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has through India’s 2014-15 budget said he will “usher in a policy regime” that takes the country “towards a sustained growth of 7-8 per cent or above within the next 3-4 years”.

Such an approach will have a very sizeable impact on India’s response to climate change. Industry and the states take their cues from the broad direction given in the annual budget, which is the most authoritative and powerful regular statement by the government that guides citizens, businesses, the public sector, and administrations at every level. In this edition of India Climate Watch, we quickly analyse the 2014 budget for what it will mean to the country’s ability to deal with a changing climate.

In the second India Climate Watch of our new series, we unpack key statements in Union Budget 2014-15 for what they mean to the country’s need to balance economic imperatives against the growing national footprint. We find a few positives and several points of concern, which are:

The Finance Minister said it is his duty to steer towards desired macro-economic outcomes of higher growth, lower inflation, sustained level of external sector balance and a prudent policy stance. He added that “it would not be wise to expect everything that can be done or must be done to be in the first Budget presented within forty five days of the formation of this government”. Positive, with qualifications
Higher growth is presented as the “sine qua non” that continues in this budget -as has been the trend for the last decade – to search for a link with bringing a large section of India’s population out of poverty. Negative
A number of individual provisions collectively mean greater support to renewable energy and to making efficiency in conventional energy generation the basis for power generation. The use of electricity in agriculture (by erratically metered or unmetered pumpsets) is to be addressed by solar power-driven pumpsets. A ‘clean energy cess’ on the extraction of coal has been doubled. Positive

The relationship between the central government and states is a factor that influences budgetary support for dealing with the effects of climate change. Read why in the India Climate Watch bulletin 2014 02 (pdf, 187kb).

India Climate Watch bulletin

July 2, 2014 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

The new government is speaking on climate change with confidence and purpose, and the administration of the Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change is, like other line departments providing the public with more information and in greater detail. The new Indian Climate Watch bulletin has said, “Such an approach needs to be at least the minimum benchmark that ensures engagement and participation between government and citizens, government and industry, government and stakeholders who have not and continue not to find adequate representation when policy and planning id discussed and decided.” For this new and decisive direction, the bulletin added, the ministry under Prakash Javadekar deserves congratulations.

Download the India Climate Watch bulletin 2014 01 here (pdf, 122kb)

The new India Climate Watch bulletin has examined the recent statements made by the Ministry and provides an outline of the socio-economic contexts that must guide them. Several positives and points of concern are found:

The MoEF is functioning in a more transparent manner concerning climate change in India, and is discussing inter-governmental and multilateral meetings and conferences well ahead of time.
Javadekar is talking about finance, technology and time-tables pertaining to the international climate negotiations. He is also talking about a more active and larger role that India will play.
The MoEF is currently speaking on its own and the statements of the Government of India do not appear to reflect a common position held by key sectors such as agriculture and food, water resources, health, renewable energy, and petroleum.
The central government is discussing India’s international role in climate negotiations, in particular the Conference of Parties, CoP, that are held annually under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). There is scarce attention paid to climate change matters and responses in the states.

However, much more clarity is needed on the following points made by the central government through Javadekar and the MoEF. Read why in the India Climate Watch bulletin 2014 01 (pdf, 122kb).