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India spells out a climate action plan

October 7, 2015 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

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We present here the summary of India’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) which have been submitted to the UN Climate Change Convention (the UNFCCC). This summary has been released by the Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Information and Broadcasting. Our analysis of and commentary on India’s INDCs will follow in separate articles.

quote-open4The Government of India has said that the country’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) are balanced and comprehensive.  In official statements, the government said that INDCs include reductions in the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33 to 35 per cent by 2030 from 2005 level and to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent through additional forest and tree cover by 2030.  India has also decided to anchor a global solar alliance, INSPA (International Agency for Solar Policy & Application), of all countries located in between Tropic of Cancer and Tropic of Capricorn.

quote-open2The INDCs centre around India’s policies and programmes on promotion of clean energy, especially renewable energy, enhancement of energy efficiency, development of less carbon intensive and resilient urban centres, promotion of waste to wealth, safe, smart and sustainable green transportation network, abatement of pollution and India’s efforts to enhance carbon sink through creation of forest and tree cover.  It also captures citizens and private sector contribution to combating climate change.

quote-open5India_INDCs1The INDCs outline the post-2020 climate actions they intend to take under a new international agreement.  The INDCs document is prepared with a view to taking forward the Prime Minister’s vision of a sustainable lifestyle and climate justice to protect the poor and vulnerable from adverse impacts of climate change. Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change adopted an inclusive process for preparation of India’s INDCs. It held stakeholder consultations with the specific involvement of the key Ministries and State Governments.  Interactions were also held with civil society organisations, thinktanks and technical & academic institutions of eminence. The Ministry had commissioned Greenhouse Gas (GHG) modeling studies for projections of GHG emissions till 2050 with a decadal gap. The gist of all these consultations & studies were taken on board before submitting India’s INDCs. The government  zeroed-in on a set of contributions which are comprehensive, balanced, equitable and pragmatic and addresses all the elements including Adaptation, Mitigation, Finance, Technology Transfer, Capacity Building and Transparency in Action and Support.

quote-open1Planned actions and economic reforms have contributed positively to the rapidly declining growth rate of energy intensity in India. The Government of India, through its various institutions and resources, has taken steps to decouple the Indian energy system from carbon in the long run. Despite facing enormous development challenges like poverty eradication, ensuring housing, electricity and food security for all, India declared a voluntary goal of reducing the emissions intensity of its GDP by 20–25%, over 2005 levels by 2020, despite having no binding mitigation obligations as per the Convention.  A slew of policy measures to promote low carbon strategies and Renewable Energy have resulted in the decline of emission intensity of our GDP by 12% between 2005 and 2010. It is a matter of satisfaction that United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in its Emission Gap Report 2014 has recognized India as one of the countries on course to achieving its voluntary goal.

quote-open6India has adopted several ambitious measures for clean and renewable energy, energy efficiency in various sectors of industries, achieving lower emission intensity in the automobile and transport sector, non-fossil based electricity generation and building sector based on energy conservation. Thrust on renewable energy, promotion of clean energy, enhancing energy efficiency, developing climate resilient urban centres and sustainable green transportation network are some of the measures for achieving this goal.

quote-open3Solar power in India is poised to grow significantly with Solar Mission as a major initiative of the Government of India. A scheme for development of 25 Solar Parks, Ultra Mega Solar Power Projects, canal top solar projects and one hundred thousand solar pumps for farmers is at different stages of implementation.  The Government’s goal of ‘Electricity for All’ is sought to be achieved by the above programs that would require huge investments, infusion of new technology, availability of nuclear fuel and international support.

quote-open4India_INDCs2The energy efficiency of thermal power plants will be systematically and statutorily improved. Over one million medium and small enterprises will be involved in the Zero Defect Zero Effect Scheme to improve their quality, energy efficiency, enhance resource efficiency, pollution control, waste management and use of renewable energy.

quote-open2Urban transport policy will encourage moving people rather than vehicles with a major focus on Mass Rapid Transit Systems. In addition to 236 km of metro rail in place, about 1150 km metro projects for cities including Pune, Ahmedabad and Lucknow are being planned. Delhi Metro, which has become India’s first MRTS project to earn carbon credits, has the potential to reduce about 0.57 million tonnes of CO2 e annually. The switch from Bharat Stage IV (BS IV) to Bharat Stage V (BS V) and Bharat Stage VI (BS VI) to improve fuel standards across the country is also planned for the near future.

quote-open5Renewable energy sources are a strategic national resource. Harnessing these sources will put India on the path to a cleaner environment, energy independence and, a stronger economy. The renewable energy technologies contribute to better air quality, reduce reliance on fossil fuels, curb global warming, add jobs to the economy and, protect environmental values such as habitat and water quality.  Over the years India has successfully created a positive outlook necessary to promote investment in, demand for, and supply of, renewable energy. India’s strategy on renewable energy is driven by the objectives of energy security, energy access and also reducing the carbon footprints of the national energy systems. It has evolved over the years through increasingly stronger commitment at federal level.

quote-open1The institutional arrangement for offtake of renewable energy power will be further strengthened by Renewable Purchase Obligations and Renewable Generation Obligations. India’s share of non-fossil fuel in the total installed capacity is projected to change from 30% in 2015 to about 40 % by 2030.  India is running one of the largest renewable capacity expansion programmes in the world. Between 2002 and 2015, the share of renewable grid capacity has increased over 6 times, from 2% (3.9 GW) to around 13% (36 GW) from a mix of sources including Wind Power, Small Hydro Power, Biomass Power / Cogeneration, Waste to Power and Solar Power. On normative terms the CO2 emission abatement achieved from the renewable power installed capacity was 84.92 million tons CO2 eq. /year as of 30 June 2015.

quote-open6To accelerate development and deployment of renewable energy in the country, the Government is taking a number of initiatives like up-scaling of targets for renewable energy capacity addition from 30GW by 2016-17 to 175 GW by 2021-22.The renewable power target of 175 GW by 2022 will result in abatement of 326.22 million tons of CO2 eq. /year.  The ambitious solar expansion programme seeks to enhance the capacity to 100 GW by 2022, which is expected to be scaled up further thereafter. Efforts will include scaling up efforts to increase the share of non-fossil fuel based energy resources in total electricity mix including wind power, solar, hydropower, biomass, waste to energy and nuclear power.

quote-open3India_INDCs3The range of ecosystem goods and services provided by forests include carbon sequestration and storage. Despite the significant opportunity costs, India is one of the few countries where forest and tree cover has increased in recent years and the total forest and tree cover amounts to 24% percent of the geographical area of the country. Over the past two decades progressive national forestry legislations and policies of India have transformed India’s forests into a net sink of CO2. With its focus on sustainable forest management, afforestation and regulating diversion of forest land for non-forest purpose, India plans to increase its carbon stock. Government of India’s long term goal is to increase its forest cover through a planned afforestation drive which includes number of programmes and initiatives like Green India Mission, green highways policy, financial incentive for forests, plantation along rivers, REDD-Plus & Other Policies and Compensatory Afforestation Fund Management and Planning Authority

quote-open4For the first time devolution of funds to states from the federal pool will be based on a formula that attaches 7.5 % weight to the area under forest. It takes into account the changing realities in order to rebalance the fiscal system of the country in a way that will incentivize greener distribution of resources. This initiative will give afforestation a massive boost by conditioning about USD 6.9 billion of transfers to the states based on their forest cover, which is projected to increase up to USD 12 billion by 2019-20.

quote-open2For India, adaptation is inevitable and an imperative for the development process. India is facing climate change as a real issue, which is impacting some of its key sectors like agriculture and water. The adverse impacts of climate change on the developmental prospects of the country are further amplified enormously by the existence of widespread poverty and dependence of a large proportion of the population on climate sensitive sectors for livelihood. It is of immediate importance and requires action now.

quote-open5In the INDCs,  the country has focused on adaptation efforts, including: a) developing sustainable habitats; b) optimizing water use efficiency; c) creating ecologically sustainable climate resilient agricultural production systems; d) safeguarding the Himalayan glaciers and mountain ecosystem; and, e) enhancing carbon sinks in sustainably managed forests and implementing adaptation measures for vulnerable species, forest-dependent communities and ecosystems. India has also set up a National Adaptation Fund with an initial allocation of INR 3,500 million (USD 55.6 million) to combat the adaptation needs in key sectors.  This fund will assist national and state level activities to meet the cost of adaptation measures in areas that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.

quote-open1India’s climate actions have so far been largely financed from domestic resources. India already has ambitious climate action plans in place.  Preliminary domestic requirements to implement national climate plans add upto more than USD 2.5 trillion between 2015 and 2030.Substantial scaling up these plans would require greater resources. Developing countries like India are resource constrained and are already spending enormous amounts on climate change, . Implementing climate change mitigation and adaptation actions would require domestic and new & additional funds from developed countries in view of the resource required and the resource gap.

quote-open6Urgent efforts to reduce GHG emissions need to take place against the backdrop of a growing energy demand and urbanisation in India. With the responsibility of lifting around 360 million people out of poverty and raising the standard of living of an even greater number of people, technology is the only powerful solution for countries like India that can simultaneously address climate change and development needs. Technology development and transfer and capacity-building are key to ensuring adequate development and deployment of clean-technologies. The technology gap between rich and poor countries remains enormous and the capacity of developing economies to adopt new technology needs to be enhanced.  Enhanced action on technology development and transfer will be central in enabling the full and effective implementation of India’s INDCs. Developed countries should be supportive and help in transfer of technology, remove barriers, create facilitative IPR regime, provide finance, capacity building support and create a global framework for Research & Development on clean coal and other technologies.”

Filed Under: Latest Tagged With: climate, Climate Change, COP, development, emission, GDP, GHG, INDC, India, low carbon, UNFCCC

An 8th century moral for climate dialogue

September 4, 2015 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi employed an event from the life of Sri Adi Shankarachaya, the late 8th century spiritual master, to emphasise the importance of dialogue in finding ways to deal with climate change and also problems that are international in scope, such as conflict and the need for environmental consciousness.

Modi said this at the inauguration in New Delhi of ‘Samvad’, the Global Hindu-Buddhist Initiative on Conflict Avoidance and Environment Consciousness. Amongst those who listened to his address were: the Most Venerable Sayadaw Dr Asin Nyanissara, Founder Chancellor of the Sitagu International Buddhist Academy in Myanmar; Her Excellency Mrs Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga, the former President of Sri Lanka; Minoru Kiuchi, State Minister for Foreign Affairs of Japan; and Sri Sri Ravi Shankar.

The Prime Minister said that the themes chosen for the symposium – avoiding conflicts, moving towards environmental consciousness and free and frank dialogue – “may appear independent but they are not mutually exclusive. In fact, they are mutually dependent and supportive”. Calling climate change a pressing global challenge, the PM said a response to climate change calls for collective human action.

“The Buddhist tradition, in all of its historical and cultural manifestations, encourages greater identification with the natural world because from a Buddhist perspective nothing has a separate existence,” he said. “The impurities in the environment affect the mind, and the impurities of mind also pollute the environment. In order to purify the environment, we have to purify the mind.”

He pointed out that ethical values of personal restraint in consumption and environmental consciousness are deeply rooted in Asian philosophical traditions, especially in Hinduism and Buddhism which along with other faiths such as Confucianism, Taoism and Shintoism have undertaken greater responsibility to protect the environment. “Hinduism and Buddhism with their well-defined treatises on Mother Earth can help examine the changes in approach that need to be made.”

Modi said that the present generation has the responsibility of holding in trust the rich natural wealth for future generations. “The issue is not merely about climate change; it is about climate justice,” he said. He spoke of the need to shift from an ideological approach to a philosophic one. “The essence of philosophy is that it is not a closed thought, while ideology is a closed one. So philosophy not only allows dialogue but it is a perpetual search for truth through dialogue.”

Advocating dialogue which produces no anger or retribution, Modi said that one of the greatest examples of such dialogue was the one between Adi Sankaracharya and Mandana Mishra, a debate whose significance has educated and edified many generations of Indians. The PM related that Adi Sankaracharya wanted to establish through dialogue and debate with the highest authority on ritualism that rituals were not necessary for attaining ‘mukti’, whereas Mandana Mishra wanted to prove that Sankara was wrong in dismissing rituals.

“This was how, in ancient India, debates on sensitive issues between scholars avoided such issues being settled in streets. Adi Sankara and Mandana Mishra held a debate and Sankara won. But the more important point is not the debate itself but how was the debate was conducted. It is a fascinating story that will ever remain one of the highest forms of debate for all times for humanity,” he said.

Filed Under: Latest Tagged With: Adi Shankara, Buddhist, Climate Change, climate justice, faith, Hindu, India, Narendra Modi, philosophy, religion

A monsoon in more than two halves

August 4, 2015 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

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Less rain for the remaining two months of the typical monsoon season of four months, but an overall season average that remains as it was forecast in June. This is the confusing monsoon update issued by the Earth System Science Organization (ESSO), the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) and the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

There are aspects of IMD’s treatment of the monsoon season that need correction in our view. One is the long range forecast and its updates. Specific to this update, we are at the halfway stage of what is typically considered the four month monsoon (this too needs revision, as April and May rains were not the usual ‘unseasonal’ passing showers). However, any downward revision of the rainfall average for August and September ought to be an overall downward revision of the season, particularly as June-July have seen very uneven rain.

Consider the highlights of the updated monsoon forecast:

* Quantitatively, the rainfall over the country as a whole during the second half of the season (August to September) is likely to be 84% of LPA with a model error of ±8%.
* The rainfall during August is likely to be 90 ± 9% of LPA as was forecasted in June.
* The season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 88% of LPA with a model error of ±4% as was forecasted in June.

ICP_imd_points_20150804We make our criticism constructively, for a significant amount of the material India Climate Portal puts out through our website and our twitter account is taken from the public products released by IMD, ISRO and the Ministry of Earth Sciences, and we fully appreciate the quality of work and commitment of these agencies.

The national mean rainfall (“country as a whole”, as the IMD forecasts call it) must be abandoned as it does not represent the meteorological diversity of a very large country. Each of the 36 met sub-divisions is affected in different ways by the El Nino Southern Oscillation, the Indian Ocean dipole, the Madden-Julian Oscillation and other hemispheric phenomena.

There is no need for this simplification, which in fact achieves the opposite of timely accuracy.
The media in particular (television and radio, print, online) look for an overall message and, without guidance from authorities, picks up ‘top line’ messages that are of little or no use at the district and taluka level, and also for towns and cities. The question for IMD is rather: how will variability in monsoon together with the strengthening El Nino affect local outlooks for August to October. That is why we advocate monthly outlooks for the 36 met sub-divisions, to begin in May and to run until October (that is, half the year and not a third of the year), primarily to prepare local administrations for all possible scenarios.

There is no reason why this cannot be the approach. The Ministry of Earth Sciences coordinates the observation network (satellites included, and our agencies ISRO and NRSC are heavily involved), the IMD uses these data together with a very extensive network of weather stations all over India. The output is excellent quality and in the public domain. Because the meteorological services in India have historically been designed to aid and guide agriculture and cultivation, the agri-met bulletins, alerts and products are copious. Hence IMD/MoES listens to the needs of the agricultural departments and, more recently, disaster management agencies. Unfortunately, the interface with public is still minimal, which this central government can also easily remedy.

Filed Under: Latest, Monsoon 2015 Tagged With: 2015, climate, earth sciences, El Nino, forecast, IMD, India, ISRO, monsoon

Monsoon 2015 with India Climate Portal

July 12, 2015 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

ICP_tweetpage_imageThis is our running timeline of tweets with alerts, data and information on monsoon 2015.

Tweets by @Indiaclimate

Filed Under: Latest

India pushes solar target up to 100 GW

June 18, 2015 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

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The Union Cabinet has decided that India’s solar power capacity target under the National Solar Mission is to be dramatically revised upwards to reach 100,000 MW (or 100 GW) by 2022. The new solar target of 100 GW is expected to abate over 170 million tonnes of CO2 over its life cycle.

In the first phase, the Government of India is to provide capital subsidy to promote solar capacity addition in the country. This capital subsidy will be provided for rooftop solar projects in various cities and towns for projects to be developed through the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) and for decentralized generation through small solar projects.

MNRE_solar2Solar power projects are also to be developed using what the government calls a “bundling mechanism” together with thermal power with investments envisaged to come from large public sector undertakings and also from independent power producers. State governments meanwhile have also come out with state-specific solar policies to promote solar capacity addition.

The statement by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) has said: “Solar power can contribute to the long term energy security of India, and reduce dependence on fossil fuels that puts a strain on foreign reserves and the ecology as well.” The solar manufacturing sector in India will benefit with this long term trajectory of solar capacity addition.

This scaling up plan for solar power has a target of 40 GW through decentralised solar power generation in the form of grid connected rooftop projects. Coordination is required, says the central government, so that the land areas required for the largest solar farms are unculturable land, for solar photo-voltaic units to be encouraged, and for large government buildings to be identified for rooftop solar projects, for the Ministry of Urban Development to make mandatory the provision of roof-top solar and 10% generation of renewable energy (presumably per building unit).

Financial incentives envisaged include giving the status of ‘infrastructure’ for solar projects, raising tax-free solar bonds, including roof-top solar units within housing loans provided by scheduled banks. It is also foreseen that amendments to the Electricity Act will be needed so that renewable purchase obligations and renewable generation obligations can be enforced.

The National Solar Mission was begun in 2009 with an initial target for grid-connected solar projects of 20,000 MW by 2022. In the last two to three years, the sector has witnessed rapid development with installed solar capacity increasing from 18 MW to about 3,800 MW during 2010-15. The price of solar energy has come down significantly from Rs 17.90 per unit in 2010 to under Rs 7 per unit today.

Filed Under: Latest Tagged With: decentralised, electricity, grid, India, photo voltaic, power, PV, solar, Solar Mission

How El Niño plans to hijack monsoon 2015

May 26, 2015 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

ICP_El_Nino_monsoon_20150526_smWhether the monsoon starts off on time, whether the June, July, August and September rainfall averages are met, and whether the seasonal pattern of the monsoon is maintained are expectations that must now be set aside.

According to the Climate Prediction Center’s ENSO probability forecast, there is a 90% chance that El Niño conditions will prevail through June to August of the northern hemisphere and a more than 80% percent chance El Niño will last throughout all of 2015.

The Ministry of Earth Sciences El Niño/La Nina, Indian Ocean Dipole Update (10 May 2015)

The Ministry of Earth Sciences El Niño/La Nina, Indian Ocean Dipole Update (10 May 2015)

What this means, especially when record warm global atmospheric temperatures (because we in South Asia and our neighbours in East Asia have continued burned coal as if the resulting CO2 and soot simply doesn’t exist) are being set, is the remaining months of 2015 – the monsoon period included – will bring strange, dangerous and extreme weather. We have already seen that over the last week, with the death toll from the heat wave having crossed 550.

For the first time since 1998 – ­the year of the strongest El Niño on record, which played havoc with the
world’s weather patterns and was blamed for 23,000 deaths worldwide – ­ocean temperatures in all five El Niño zones have risen above 1 degree Celsius warmer than normal at the same time. That is read by climatologists and ocean scientists as presaging an El Niño that is moderately strong to strong. The forecast models updated in May are now unanimous that El Niño is going to keep strengthening through the rest of 2015. (See also the official forecast from the USA’s government climate science agency.)

El Niño’s home is in the tropical eastern Pacific, but we in India need to watch the waters to our south very closely. New research published in the journal Nature Geoscience has examined records going back to 1950 and noticed that Indian Ocean absorbed heat at a low level until 2003. Thereafter, the excess oceanic heat in the Pacific Ocean found its way through the Indonesian archipelago and into the Indian Ocean. This is the gigantic reservoir of watery heat that is going to dictate terms to our summer monsoon, or what our school textbooks call the south-west monsoon.

It is a worry for the entire South Asian region – India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal, the Maldives, Burma, Afghanistan and Bhutan. That is why when the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring-Assessment-Prediction for Asia (FOCRA) issued its seasonal outlook for June to August 2015 it predicted weaker than normal Indian summer and East Asian monsoons. Precipitation over land is influenced by external factors such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (the ENSO), the ‘Indian Ocean Dipole’, the ‘Arctic Oscillation’, and so on.

There may be a “timely onset” of the monsoon, as the venerable IMD is used to saying, but that doesn’t mean our troubles are over. Far from it.

Filed Under: Latest, Monsoon 2015 Tagged With: Bangladesh, Bhutan, El Nino, ENSO, India, Indian Ocean, Maldives, monsoon, Nepal, Pacific, Pakistan, Sri Lanka

Rain, climate, agriculture and Haryana

May 4, 2015 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

RG_ICP_rainfall_HAR_5Every one of Haryana’s 21 districts received excess rain for the period 1 March to 30 April 2015. As these rains have destroyed crops, including food staples, the need to compensate the affected farming families is now paramount. Relief and support are only useful when they are arrive quickly, and unlike administrative conditions two generations ago, state governments and district collectors today can consult data around the clock about conditions in districts and blocks.

Our infographic shows why the March and April rains in Haryana have had destructive effects. The average rainfall in a district of Haryana during this two-month period was 111.6 millimetres – most were in the range of 148 mm (like Ambala) and 81 mm (like Mahendragarh). However, the average for the two months, March and April, is 21.2 mm (Panipat and Faridabad are usually closest to this average).

RG_ICP_rainfall_HARAlthough the level of detail available at the district, and indeed even at the weather station level, is comprehensive, the Indian Meteorological Department’s rainfall quantity categories are not granular enough to describe what Haryana has experienced. (This is so for every state that has recorded what is called “unseasonal rain” in these months.)

Amongst the questions that remain unanswered concerning the ‘unseasonal rains’ phenomena – common to Haryana, eastern and western Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradash, Rajasthan and Gujarat – is the matter of how much rain becomes excess over how many days? This meteorological sub-division (Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi) normally receives 165 mm in July and 173 mm in August. Therefore, an average amount of 111.6 mm over two months is not a quantity that has surprised the agricultural community.

The matter is one of timing – which lapse the state administration needs to explain, as the weather forecasters first alert state administrations, which then relay alerts and advisories to district administrative staff. Between the claims for compensation for destroyed crops and the political point-scoring, the state government of Haryana has side-stepped the question: what did it do with the weather advisories it was given in March and April 2015?

For our series on the changing rainfall and climate patterns (the Haryana map is the first), we use six categories that begin with 10% above normal and extend to 1000% above normal. This method does better at identifying districts in which agriculture has been hit harder by unseasonal rains and stormy weather.

Filed Under: Latest, Monsoon 2015 Tagged With: 2015, agriculture, Climate Change, crop, district, farmer, Haryana, monsoon, rainfall

Follow the highs and lows of monsoon 2015

April 22, 2015 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

ICP_announce_20150422Our coverage of the ‘mausam’, the Indian summer monsoon of 2015, has begun. The unseasonal rains of March and April, which have proved so destructive to farmers, have shown why the conventional monsoon season must be widened. You will find all monsoon-related analysis, data and reports here.

We provide short, focused updates on weather trends. We strengthen the citizen’s understanding of the effects and impacts of climate change with relevant and jargon-free commentary.

We complement the Government of India’s excellent climate and weather monitoring services by advising what you can expect in your district or city, from unseasonal rains or the lack of it. Read our status reporting and analysis here on the India Climate Portal and follow our active twitter feed.

Filed Under: Announcements, Latest Tagged With: 2015, climate, data, forecast, India, monsoon, weather

The slowing motion of India’s quick mobility

March 21, 2015 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

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This is a chart whose lines drift downwards as time goes by, quite the opposite of all the usual depictions of India’s rising GDP, rising income, rising purchasing power, and so on. But in the two dropping lines is the proof that India’s households are tying themselves up in stifling vehicular knots.

This chart shows what we call two-wheelers (scooters and motor-cycles) and cars (four-wheeled passenger vehicles, formally). It also shows number of households and a span of 20 years. The two lines show the number of households to a car (the orange line) and the number of households to a two-wheeler (the blue line). As there are many more two-wheelers than there are cars, they are on different scales, so the left axis is for the two-wheelers and the right for cars.

vehicles_2012I have taken the data from two sources. One is the Census of India, for the census years 2011, 2001 and 1991. The other is the Road Transport Yearbook (2011-12) issued by the Transport Research Wing, Ministry Of Road Transport and Highways, Government Of India. The yearbook includes a table with the total number of registered vehicles (in different categories of vehicle – two-wheelers, cars, buses, goods vehicles, others) for every year. The number of households is from the census years, with simple decadal growth applied annually between census years. I have not yet found the detailed data that will let me refine this finding between urban and rural populations.

This is what the chart says: in 1992, there were 10 households to a two-wheeler and 48.7 households to a car. Ten years later in 2002 there were 4.8 households to a two-wheeler and 26.2 households to a car. Another ten years later in 2012 there were 2.2 households to a two-wheeler and 11.8 households to a car.

vehicles_2005The implications are several and almost all of them are an alarm signal. Especially for urban areas – where most of the buying of vehicles for households has taken place – the physical space available for the movement of people and goods has increased only marginally, but the number of motorised contrivances (cars, motor-cycles, scooters and more recently stupidly large SUVs and stupidly large and expensive luxury cars) has increased quickly. Naturally this ‘growth’ of wheeled metal has choked our city wards.

But there are other implications. One is the very idea of individual mobility in and through a town or city. The connection – foolishly maintained by one government after another, and foolishly defended by macro-economists and industrial planners – between the automobile industry and gross domestic product (GDP) has crippled common sense.

vehicles_1995More motorised conveyance per household also means more fuel demanded per household, and more fuel (and money) wasted because households are taught (by the auto industry with the encouragement of the foolish cohorts I mentioned earlier) that they are entitled to wasteful personal mobility. Over 20 years, the number of cars per household has increased 4.1 times but the number of buses per household has increased only 2.8 times. That is embarrassing proof of our un-ecological and climate unfriendly new habits.

In 2012, there were 1.67 million buses (of all kinds and configurations), there were 7.65 million goods vehicles (to move all those appliances demanded by households, food crops, fertiliser, retail food, etc), 13.16 million other vehicles (which as the ministry says “include tractors trailers, three-wheelers (passenger vehicles)/LMV and other miscellaneous vehicles which are not classified separately”), 21.56 million cars (including jeeps and taxis), and 115.41 million two-wheelers. There are far too many of some kinds and not enough of others. More than 20 years after ‘liberalisation’ began, India’s household mobility is crawling along in first gear for having made too many wrong choices.

– Rahul Goswami

Filed Under: Blogs, Latest Tagged With: automobiles, cars, commuter, economy, energy, fuel, GDP, India, motorcycle, road transport, scooter, two-wheelers, urban mobility, vehicles

No time left: the IPCC message

November 3, 2014 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

RG_ICP_20141103

In the just released synthesis report of the Fifth Assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), there is one short section that must be read and understood quickly by India, our neighbours in South Asia and by the so-called ‘developing’ and ‘less developed’ countries.

This is a section – ‘3.1 Foundations of decision-making about climate change’ – in the ‘Approved Summary for Policymakers’ of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Synthesis Report.

The section has explained: “Climate change has the characteristics of a collective action problem at the global scale, because most greenhouse gases accumulate over time and mix globally, and emissions by any agent (individual, community, company, country) affect other agents.”

IPCC_AR5_SPM_headlinesThe section goes on to warn: “Effective mitigation will not be achieved if individual agents advance their own interests independently. Cooperative responses, including international cooperation, are therefore required to effectively mitigate GHG emissions and address other climate change issues.”

These two groups of statements are extremely important for India and our neighbours in Asia. There has been far too much attention and action given to the negotiations about the shape and terms of agreements on climate change (the Kyoto Protocol and its successor) and far too little on what administrative regions must do regardless. Note that this section places “international cooperation” as a sub-set of cooperative responses, not as the starting point.

This view is restated in the same section: “The effectiveness of adaptation can be enhanced through complementary actions across levels, including international cooperation. The evidence suggests that outcomes seen as equitable can lead to more effective cooperation.” [See the headline statements of the summary for policymakers here or click on the image above for a pdf.]

Thus the message to policy-makers is clear – what counts is what you do at home, in states and districts. The expectation that “international cooperation” should guide effective adaptation at all levels is no longer (and in our view has never been) tenable. [The longer synthesis report is available here.]

The Synthesis Report distils and integrates the findings from the AR5, which  is comprised of three working group reports on the ‘Physical Science Basis’ (WG1); ‘Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability’ (WG II); and ‘Mitigation of Climate Change’ (WG III). The summary for policymakers of the synthesis report was negotiated line by line among governments and the authors, while the synthesis report itself was adopted page by page.

Filed Under: Key Reports, Latest Tagged With: adaptation, AR5, Climate Change, emissions, energy, Fifth Assessment, fossil fuel, GHG, greenhouse gas, IPCC, mitigation, renewable energy, report

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Between contemplation and climate

Whether or not the USA, Europe, the Western world, the industrialised Eastern world (China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan), adhere to or not their paltry promises about being more responsible concerning the factors that lead to climate change, is of very little concern to us. We have never set any store by international agreements on climate […]

The ‘Hindu’, ignorant about weather and climate, but runs down IMD

We find objectionable the report by ‘The Hindu’ daily newspaper accusing the India Meteorological Department of scientific shortcoming (‘IMD gets its August forecast wrong’, 1 September 2016). The report claims that the IMD in June 2016 had forecast that rains for August would be more than usual but that the recorded rain was less than […]

dialogue

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  • Climate portal editor on A tribute to the weathermen of Bharat
  • Climate portal editor on A tribute to the weathermen of Bharat

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