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Between contemplation and climate

June 8, 2017 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

Whether or not the USA, Europe, the Western world, the industrialised Eastern world (China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan), adhere to or not their paltry promises about being more responsible concerning the factors that lead to climate change, is of very little concern to us. We have never set any store by international agreements on climate change.

This year will see the twenty-third conference of parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and for 23 years the world and India have listened to lofty tales about simple science. In these 23 years, neither has reckless consumption been halted nor has the economic model that encourages such reckless consumption been questioned by the conference of parties. As long as they do not, inter-governmental agreements are useless.

That is why we find unnecessary and pointless the hand-wringing that has taken place about the decision of the government of the USA to exit what is called the ‘Paris Agreement’, the December 2015 document agreed to and signed by practically every country which has some fuzzy paragraphs about low-carbon economy, innovation, technology, energy and finance – all of which have very much to do with the hold of the finance capitalists and the global technocrats over the international systems of our time.

President number 45 of the USA is neither wiser than nor baser than the wisest of basest of any of his predecessors: the American political system has to do entirely with the desire to dominate other countries. Number 45’s manner may be irksome, but through him speaks the American finance capital, its bloatsome defence industry and its insensate technology industry.

We do not expect the chiefs of the Western countries, the so-called major powers of the European Union, and their allies such as Japan and Australia to do any less. They are no different. We do not think any of them, their armies of bland advisers, their bankers and the brigades of industrialists great and petty who crowd their corridors of governance have read, much less reflected, on the lambent wisdom of our civilisation.

Many centuries ago, in the section of the Digha Nikaya, or Collection of Long Discourses, called Samannaphala Sutta, or the Fruits of the Contemplative Life, it was written that there are those who are addicted to debates and shout: “You understand this doctrine and discipline? I’m the one who understands this doctrine and discipline. How could you understand this doctrine and discipline? You’re practicing wrongly. I’m practicing rightly. I’m being consistent. You’re not. What should be said first you said last. What should be said last you said first. What you took so long to think out has been refuted. Your doctrine has been overthrown. You’re defeated. Go and try to salvage your doctrine; extricate yourself if you can!”

And this is how we view what are called climate negotiations, between the experts of countries. We care not for the arguments of number 45 of the USA, for what many in the world in the last week have protested as being absurd – it undermines economy, it takes away jobs, it is unfair, it is disadvantageous to us, and so on – is what they cheer and support their own countries for in areas where they stand to gain, such as trade (to sell cheap and useless goods), technology (to enslave and control), finance (to spin webs of debt), processes of modernisation (to homogenise cultures so that ever more ‘markets’ come into being).

We in India need no such instruction. But we must guard against our philosophies being swept away by these agreements, these grand comities of nations, the barrage of numerics and scientifics that are invented to display to us what a threat we are should we not emulate the West and its ways. We must guard against our own who prefer the baubles of post-industrial society to the intellectual and spiritual riches of our civilisation, and who seek to infest India with the same technological and ‘modern’ wares that so entranced the West and doomed its folk. This has very little to do with climate and its change and very much more to do with our Indic sciences and their worth, our conduct and our duty to Punyabhoomi Bharat.

– Rahul Goswami

Filed Under: Blogs Tagged With: Bharat, civilisation, climate, Climate Change, convention, Europe, finance, India, Paris accord, Paris agreement, philosophy, technology, UN, UNFCCC, USA

The ‘Hindu’, ignorant about weather and climate, but runs down IMD

September 2, 2016 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

ICP_IMD_Hindu_comment_20160901

We find objectionable the report by ‘The Hindu’ daily newspaper accusing the India Meteorological Department of scientific shortcoming (‘IMD gets its August forecast wrong’, 1 September 2016). The report claims that the IMD in June 2016 had forecast that rains for August would be more than usual but that the recorded rain was less than usual.

This is nothing but cheap sensationalising by the newspaper of a non-issue. In so doing the ‘Hindu’, which is considered one of Bharat’s national newspapers, has attempted to tarnish the work of not only the India Meteorological Department, but also the work of the earth observation technical community which serve us in the several institutions and agencies of the Ministry of Earth Sciences.

There is no mainstream news media in the country – no daily newspapers, no magazine or periodical, no television channel, no internet website – which possesses the competence to assess the scientific quality and correctness of output of the government earth science agencies, and whose output is delivered to the public every day, several times a day. ‘The Hindu’ certainly does not and with this report exposes its ignorance about meteorology and climate science and observation.

Concerning the newspaper’s claim, rainfall for the period 1 June to 31 August in the 36 meteorological sub-divisions of Bharat, as an area-weighted average, is -3% of the long period average and is therefore well within the boundaries set by both the first stage and second stage forecasts provided by the IMD. Of the 36 sub-divisions, for this period 24 sub-divisions have recorded normal rainfall, four have excess and eight (including the two island sub-divisions) have deficient rainfall. In what way is this an erring forecast?

The news report in the ‘Hindu’ states that the forecasting error it has found “suggests that the agency’s weather models are still not robust enough to capture changes in global climate that could affect” our monsoon. This is nonsense.

The earth observation agencies of the MoES – of which the IMD is a part – for the June to September monsoon forecast employs a group of six parameters that inform the forecast (together called an ensemble forecasting system). These are: north-east Pacific to north-west Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly gradient, south-east equatorial Indian Ocean sea surface temperature, East Asia mean sea level pressure, central Pacific (El Nino region 3.4), sea surface temperature and tendency, north Atlantic mean sea level pressure and north-central Pacific 850mb wind gradient. In what way does this not look at global climate?

Moreover, the IMD and the agencies of the MoES (notably the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology) work closely regionally and internationally on climate science, weather prediction and monitoring. Not only is the IMD implementing for the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) a Regional Climate Centre for South Asia, the monsoon prediction and monitoring system relies on collaboration with: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of USA, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services of UK, and with the national meteorological agencies of Bangladesh, Bhutan, the Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.

And furthermore, it is because the Earth System Science Organisation agencies and institutes revise, review and upgrade forecasting models, computing wherewithal and methods continuously that we have in 2016 an experimental forecast (based on the Monsoon Mission coupled dynamical model).

‘The Hindu’ newspaper has presented its own uninformed reading of differences in forecast averages to make an absurd claim against the IMD, neglecting entirely to mention the extremely valuable service provided, at the district and even at the block level, to Bharat’s kisans via daily sms on weather which will affect crops; neglecting the several excellent initiatives launched by the Department since 2015 on localising forecasts for towns and cities (in close coordination with the National Remote Sensing Centre of the Indian Space Research organisation, the Meteorological and Oceanographic Satellite Data Archival Centre of ISRO’s Space Applications Centre, and the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services.

Filed Under: Blogs Tagged With: 2016, Bharat, forecast, IMD, India, monsoon, weather

Why we need to save water right now

April 16, 2016 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

ICP_reservoirs_20160417

Every week, the Central Water Commission release the “live storage” data. By this the Commission means the quantity of water stored in what are called the 91 major reservoirs of India. From this group of what are also called the big dams – they are the biggest in the country – 37 have hydro-electric power plants attached that use the flow of water to generate electricity.

Together the 91 reservoirs can store, if they were full, 157.799 billion cubic metres (BCM). This amount is calculated as being about  62% of the entire “live storage” capacity of 253 BCM which is estimated to have been built as dams in India.

The CWC’s latest bulletin of 13 April 2016 delivers to us an immediate warning: the water stored in these major reservoirs together is under a quarter of their full storage level. The combined quantity stands at 35.839 BCM, which is 23% of the total live storage capacity of these reservoirs. This quantity is 67% of what was stored at this time last year, and is 77% of the average for ten years that is stored at this time of the year. This means we have less stored water compared with last year and compared with the ten year average for this time of year.

Here follows our sequence of alerts put out over the @indiaclimate Twitter feed:

Today, the 91 major reservoirs together hold 35.83 billion cubic metres (bcm) of #water. When all full they can hold 157.79 bcm

— Indiaclimate (@Indiaclimate) April 16, 2016

The total #water stored now is 23% of full storage by all the 91 reservoirs, and is 67% of the storage at this time last year. — Indiaclimate (@Indiaclimate) April 16, 2016

And moreover the total #water stored now is 77% of the average storage at this time for the last ten years. Now for the charts.

— Indiaclimate (@Indiaclimate) April 16, 2016

Water saving measures must immediately be followed by all households. Town and city municipal corporations and councils must immediately ask residents to reduce their use of water especially on activities like washing cars, watering lawns and swimming pools. District administrations need to immediately implement contingency plans for conserving water.

This chart shows the full reservoir level (blue) and current #water storage level (orange) for dams (by size) 69-91 pic.twitter.com/9LGQIddla6 — Indiaclimate (@Indiaclimate) April 16, 2016

Second chart: full reservoir level (blue) and current #water storage level (orange) for dams (by size) 46-68 pic.twitter.com/liMPJKoqfY

— Indiaclimate (@Indiaclimate) April 16, 2016

Third chart: full reservoir level (blue) and current #water storage level (orange) for dams (by size) 23-45 pic.twitter.com/CKjHboXIF4 — Indiaclimate (@Indiaclimate) April 16, 2016

Fourth chart: full reservoir level (blue) and current #water storage level (orange) for dams (by size) 1-22 pic.twitter.com/1UcvS5QJrE

— Indiaclimate (@Indiaclimate) April 16, 2016

Filed Under: Blogs, Current Tagged With: Bharat, big dam, Central Water Commission, India, reservoir, water, water resources, water shortage

From space, a district and its water

October 9, 2015 by Climate portal editor 3 Comments

RG_ICP_water_district_map_201510

In this panel of maps the relationship between the district of Parbhani (in the Marathwada region of Maharashtra) and water is graphically depicted over time. The blue squares are water bodies, as seen by a satellite equipped to do so. The intensity of the blue colour denotes how much water is standing in that coloured square by volume – the deeper the blue, the more the water.

Water bodies consist of all surface water bodies and these are: reservoirs, irrigation tanks, lakes, ponds, and rivers or streams. There will be variation in the spatial dimensions of these water bodies depending on how much rainfall the district has recorded, and how the collected water has been used during the season and year. In addition to these surface water bodies, there are other areas representing water surface that may appear, such as due to flood inundations, depressions in flood plains, standing water in rice crop areas during transplantation stages. Other than medium and large reservoirs, these water features are treated as seasonal and some may exist for only a few weeks.

RG_ICP_water_district_map_201510_section

Click for a section of the full size image. The detail can be mapped to panchayat level.

The importance of monitoring water collection and use at this scale can be illustrated through a very brief outline of Parbhani. The district has 830 inhabited villages distributed through nine tehsils that together occupy 6,214 square kilometres, eight towns, 359,784 households in which a population of 1.83 million live (1.26 rural and 0.56 million urban). This population includes 317,000 agricultural labourers and 295,000 cultivators – thus water use and rainfall is of very great importance for this district, and indeed for the many like it all over India.

This water bodies map for Parbhani district is composed of 18 panels that are identical spatially – that is, centred on the district – and display the chronological progression of water accumulation or withdrawal. Each panel is a 15-day period, and the series of mapped fortnights begins on 1 January 2015.

The panels tell us that there are periods before the typical monsoon season (1 June to 30 September) when the accumulation of water in surface water bodies has been more than those 15-day periods found during the monsoon season. See in particular the first and second fortnights of March, and the first fortnight of April.

During the monsoon months, it is only the two fortnights of June in which the accumulation of water in the surface water bodies of Parbhani district can be seen. The first half of July and the second half of August in particular have been recorded as relatively dry.

This small demonstration of the value of such information, provided at no cost and placed in the public domain, is based on the programme ‘Satellite derived Information on Water Bodies Area (WBA) and Water Bodies Fraction (WBF)’ which is provided by the National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC), Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), Department of Space, Government of India.

For any of our districts, such continuous monitoring is an invaluable aid to: facilitate the study of water surface dynamics in river basins and watersheds; analyse the relationships between regional rainfall scenarios and the collection and utilisation of water in major, medium reservoirs and irrigation tanks and ponds; inventory, map and administer the use of surface water area at frequent intervals, especially during the crop calendar applicable to district and agro-ecological zones.

Filed Under: Blogs, Monsoon 2015 Tagged With: agriculture, district, ISRO, Maharashtra, monsoon, NRSC, rain, remote sensing, reservoir, river, rural, space, town, urban, village, water

Earth, sea, sky, El Niño

June 17, 2015 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

ICP_20150617_sm

Eight-and-a-half degrees north of the equator is where the peninsula of India meets the ocean. Our country stretches across 29 degrees of latitude but it is in the vast watery realm south of Kanyakumari that the Indian summer monsoon is brewed, slowly and inevitably. Over twice as many lines of latitude stretches the Indian Ocean, its equatorial belt and then its southern reaches, which continue into the deep and icy girdles of water around Antarctica.

From this vast aqueous quarter-planet the vapours are gathered, and these swirls of airborne water then look for the winds to transport them, first towards the mid-southern latitudes (Madagascar lies astride these, but they are are still a full ten degrees south of the lower coasts of Java) and then in the equatorial trough that spins like a motor. From here these enormous masses of water – half again the size of India at times – are hurled as if in slow motion towards our western coast.

And so to gauge imperfectly whether the wind lords of the farther Indian Ocean have decided to be kind to us we rely nowadays on our eyes in the sky, our weather satellites. What they tell us now is coded in electronic chirps made intelligible by the meteorologists and climatologists of the Indian Meteorological Department, the Ministry of Earth Sciences, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting.

Our Indian summer monsoon is amongst the most complex of the planet’s earth-sea-sky interactions. We are told by the scientists, when they disengage from their equations, that the land retains a shorter climate ‘memory’ than the ocean. We are introduced to meridonal termperature gradients and seasonal migration of the inter-tropical convergence zone.

There is an abundance of exotic nomenclature: the Mascarene High, the orographic influence of the East African Highlands, the momentum of the Somali Jet, the ventilation effect of poleward precipitation. And then there is the hot star of the equatorial deeps, El Niño himself, whose domain is the central Pacific and who, when he awakes, demands that the equatorial Indian Ocean obey. He has awoken this year, but the ocean named after us is as unruly as ever.

When will El Niño’s whip really crack? The best models of the climate scientists cannot truly tell us. They and their teraflop calculating machines can only posit what is measured, and what remains unmeasured is still far greater. What we do however know about El Niño is that he does tend to suppress the monsoon. But this year’s El Niño may not resemble one of an earlier year, for where El Niño arises and rules is as important as when. Where the ocean surface warms up (several thousand kilometres parallel to the equator, several hundred kilometres wide) unusually strong rising air flows result.

When these flows descend (as they eventually must) they are generally dry and stable, and so the opposite of conditions needed for or monsoon rains. If they descend far away from India (as happened in 1997-98 when they dropped back into the eastern Pacific) our ocean will deliver and our monsoon will roll in. If they descend in the middle of the Pacific (which happened in 2002) our monsoon will resent the interference and hide. But El Niño is awake and pacing the Pacific. We must hope he does not look too far westwards. (RG)

Filed Under: Blogs, Monsoon 2015 Tagged With: Climate Change, earth science, El Nino, ENSO, India, Indian Ocean, monsoon, planet

Why 2015 must be the year that climate talks are retired

June 2, 2015 by Climate portal editor 1 Comment

ICP_climate_cartoon_201505_spiros_derveniotis

This year’s ritual of talking about climate and talking about the effects of changing climates has begun. This is the 21st year that this is being done, and in none of the previous 20 years have the talkers achieved any worthwhile goal. They will not this year either, although much money will be spent on slick and colourful messages to convince the publics of 196 countries otherwise.

On 1 June the Bonn Climate Change Conference June 2015 began. The actors at this conference are mainly from the same cast that has played these roles for 20 years. They have been replaced here and there, and overall the main cast and supporting casts have grown in number – I think this growth in the number of climate negotiators and climate experts matches the growth rate of parts per million of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere, there may be a correlation that can inspire a new discipline of research.

'World on Fire' by Spiros Derveniotis, courtesy Cartoon Movement, http://www.cartoonmovement.com/p/2486

‘World on Fire’ by Spiros Derveniotis, courtesy Cartoon Movement, http://www.cartoonmovement.com/p/2486

These conferences are expensive, for thousands of people are involved. Most of these people profess to be concerned about climate change and its effects and most of these people maintain curriculum vitaes that are tomes designed to awe and impress, usually with the purpose of securing well-paid consultancies or academic tenureships or some such similar lucrative sinecures. It is an industry, this negotiating climate change, whose own rates of growth are about as steep as the number of those, in the OECD countries, who fall into debt. As before, there may be interesting correlations to note.

The publics of the 196 countries that are constrained to send emissaries and observers and negotiators to these colossal jamborees have been lied to for 20 years quite successfully, and this 21st year we will see the lies repeated and presented all wrapped up in new tinsel. Many of these countries – from south-eastern and central Europe, from small island states in the Pacific and Indian oceans, from the Caribbean, from South America and from South-East Asia – pay for the useless privilege of sending representatives to attend this annual round of sophisticated tomfoolery. It is money down the drain for them.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) under whose aegis most of these jamborees are held, and in whose august name most of the hollow but portentous pronouncements are ritually made, is an organisation that is over the hill, round the bend and up the wall. It represents today nothing that is in the interest of the public and it represents today almost everything that is in the interest of the corporate plutocracy, whether global or regional or national.

A 21st edition of annual obfuscation by the UNFCCC and its crony institutions.

A 21st edition of annual obfuscation by the UNFCCC and its crony institutions.

Unembarrassed by its own hopelessly prodigal existence, the UNFCCC lines up ‘technical expert meetings’ month after month to produce suitably technical papers that would fill libraries, if they were printed. It arranges conclaves in expensive locales (all sponsored naturally) to gauge ‘mitigation ambition of countries through multilateral assessment’. It commissions extensive reviews of the adequacy of countries’ agreed goals to keep the global average temperature from rising beyond 2°C above pre-industrial levels and the abundantly-qualified authors of these reviews (which read very much like the reviews of 2014, 2013, 2012 and so on) self-importantly inform us that “the world is not yet on track to achieve the long-term global goal, but successful mitigation policies are known and must be scaled up urgently”, just as their predecessors did 20 years ago.

The main UNFCCC cast and its supporting cast (of thousands, but these thousands alas do not form the geographic representation that the United Nations system pretends to) spend days together at preparatory conferences and meetings, and pre-preparatory conferences and meetings, and agenda-setting conferences and meetings, and theme-outlining conferences and meetings, all year round. From somewhere within this flurry of busy nothingness they announce (perhaps on the days before the solstices and following the equinoxes) that new breakthroughs have been made in the negotiating text and that consensus is nigh.

This has gone on far too long. Twenty years ago, when this great obfuscation began, there were some 1.83 billion children (under 14 years old) in the world. Today they are at ages where they are finishing primary school, have begun working (many of them in informal, insecure, hazardous jobs whose paltry wages keep families alive) and a few are completing university degrees. Some of this 1.83 billion may have an interest in what climate is and why it changes but for them, the techno-financial labyrinths invented by the UNFCCC and its comfortable nest of crony institutions offer no enlightenment. For those young women and men, the cancerous industry of climate change negotiations has done nothing to ensure, during their lifetimes till now, any reduction in the exploitation and use of materials whose first and primary effect is to degrade the nature upon which we all depend.

– Rahul Goswami

Filed Under: Blogs Tagged With: Bonn, Climate Change, CO2, COP, COP21, INDC, NAMA, UNFCCC

The Pope confronts climate change

May 5, 2015 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

ICP_vatican_201505

The Vatican has put its considerable weight behind a very clear call for dealing sensibly and sensitively to climate change. The call has come from a summit organised and hosted by two of its own institutions, the Pontifical Academy of Sciences and the Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences. Both have as visiting or contributing academicians a panoply of academic heft – amongst them are Veerabhadran Ramanathan, professor of field atmospheric sciences, Krishnaswamy Kasturirangan, professor of astronomy, Mambillikalathil Govind Kumar (MGK) Menon, professor of physics, Chintamani N R Rao, professor of chemical science, and Govind Swarup, professor of astrophysics.

The summit was held on 28 April 2015 at the Vatican and was titled ‘Protect the Earth, Dignify Humanity: The Moral Dimensions of Climate Change and Sustainable Development’. The meeting was intended, said the Vatican’s press office, to help strengthen “the global consensus” on the issue of climate change. The 28 April meeting is part of the Vatican’s increasing efforts to influence the United Nations Climate Change Conference, which meets in Paris in December 2015 with the goal of getting countries to establish legally-binding protocols to protect the climate.

“Global climate change adversely affects every aspect of our civilisation and thus should be a matter of serious concern across all world religions,” said the Vatican statement on the meeting. “Their effect on the poor is even more severe. We wish to elevate the importance of the moral dimensions of protecting the environment in advance of the Papal encyclical and to build a global movement to deal with climate change and sustainable development throughout 2015 and beyond.”

Pope Francis is reported to have prepared a major encyclical – or moral guide for Catholics – which when released (probably in July) will stress the imperative of addressing human-caused global warming. In November 2013 Francis rocked the Catholic world with his apostolic exhortation in which he held forth convincingly on the economy of exclusion, the new idolatry of money, a financial system which rules rather than serves and the inequality which spawns violence.

This meeting ended with a joint statement on the moral and religious imperative of dealing with climate change in the context of sustainable development, and it is possible that the substantive points of the ‘Moral Dimensions’ meeting will find their way into the Pope’s encyclical on climate change and sustainable development (as it is likely to be popularly known as, shorn of the florid Latin).

With an opening address by Ban Ki-moon, the UN Secretary General, and with a statement by Jeffrey Sachs (economist and director of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network), the meeting included a panel on ‘Evidence on social exclusion and climate science’ with Peter Raven, Partha Dasgupta, John Schellnhuber, Martin Rees, V Ramanathan, Y.T. Lee and Paul Crutzen.

The point of view of the Vatican, and presumably of Pope Francis, was provided by Cardinal Peter K A Turkson (who in October 2014 said to the WTO that trade is “unbalanced and unjust when it adds to the landscape of social exclusion”). Explaining the subject Turkson said that “the current economic-developmental model is out of balance” and emphasised that “we must move away from this mode of behaviour, and instead become more protective”. Turkson said that we need innovative and sustainable technological and economic solutions, and “shift away from an unthinking infatuation with GDP and a single-minded zeal for accumulation”.

Pope Francis is turning a just idea of development and climate change into recurring themes of his papacy. He talked about these subjects during his inaugural mass in 2013, and told a crowd in Rome last May that mistreating the environment is a sin. Last year, the Vatican also held a five-day summit on sustainability, calling together microbiologists, economists, legal scholars, and other experts to discuss ways to address climate change. [Photo: Photographic Service L’Osservatore Romano]

– Rahul Goswami

Filed Under: Blogs Tagged With: Ban Ki-moon, Climate Change, CNR Rao, encyclical, Francis, Govind Swarup, Jeffrey Sachs, K Kasturirangan, MGK Menon, pontifical academy, Pope, sustainable development, Turkson, UN, V Ramanathan, Vatican

Harpal Singh the climate hero

April 17, 2015 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

ICP_Harpal_Singh_Maruti_201504

One car for a household all the way from 1983 till today, and Harpal Singh says that’s the way it will be as long as he’s alive and can drive. This elderly New Delhi couple have shown two generations of Indians what responsible consumption is all about.

Harpal Singh and his wife Gulshanbeer Kaur are the owners of the first ever Maruti 800 car manufctured in 1983. The couple bought the car for Rs 47,500 and its ignition key was given to them by Indira Gandhi, who was prime minister at the time. As a generation that grew up in the 1980s knows, the Maruti 800 was a symbol of pride and progress for the country (Photo of the Maruti 800 and the Singhs is from the Hindustan Times).

“Harpal had sold his Fiat car when he bought the Maruti 800 and drove it for the rest of his life,” is significant paragraph in the news feature on the couple. “When the Maruti Zen was launched, the family advised him to upgrade to Zen but he was adamant that he would not leave this car till he is alive.” In a current automobile consumption culture – practiced by the majority of young professionals – which rewards what the marketers cunningly call ‘upgrading’, the common-sense and responsible view of the Singhs deserves to be emulated. It has after all stood them in good stead for 32 years!

A view of the myriad components that comprise a car. The manufacture of each of these, from sheet metal to a few grams of plastic, has en environmental and climate impact. Image courtesy: Volkswagen

A view of the myriad components that comprise a car. The manufacture of each of these, from sheet metal to a few grams of plastic, has en environmental and climate impact. Image courtesy: Volkswagen

Today’s car manufacturers, their financiers and the industry that supports personal mobility will talk about reduced emissions and fuel saving measures that every new model boasts, and they seek to justify frequent ‘upgrades’ with this argument. The truth, as the Singhs divined long ago, is quite different.

In today’s world sustainable mobility demands a much broader approach. Environmental impacts are not produced only while driving. Long before the vehicle ever travels its first kilometre, raw materials must first be extracted, and components must be manufactured – all these have impacts on climate change because they require energy to produce, energy to move, and energy to assemble.

In every phase of automobile manufacture (which we ought to be far more conscious of now than was the case in 1983) energy and resources are consumed and emissions are released into the atmosphere, the soil and water. The inspirational example of the Singhs has enabled us to look at the complete story when assessing a the environmental impact of a personal vehicle. This is important because today’s throw-away-or-upgrade consumer culture (which extends from mobile phones to cars and much else besides) doesn’t reflect about the emissions that are produced at every stage, be it manufacturing, the service life or recycling. The true green economy, as the Singhs will be able to explain, is about living within one’s means and using less.

Filed Under: Blogs Tagged With: automobile, climate, consumption, emissions, energy, fuel, green economy, Maruti, product life cycle

The slowing motion of India’s quick mobility

March 21, 2015 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

RG_ICP_vehicles_households_20_years

This is a chart whose lines drift downwards as time goes by, quite the opposite of all the usual depictions of India’s rising GDP, rising income, rising purchasing power, and so on. But in the two dropping lines is the proof that India’s households are tying themselves up in stifling vehicular knots.

This chart shows what we call two-wheelers (scooters and motor-cycles) and cars (four-wheeled passenger vehicles, formally). It also shows number of households and a span of 20 years. The two lines show the number of households to a car (the orange line) and the number of households to a two-wheeler (the blue line). As there are many more two-wheelers than there are cars, they are on different scales, so the left axis is for the two-wheelers and the right for cars.

vehicles_2012I have taken the data from two sources. One is the Census of India, for the census years 2011, 2001 and 1991. The other is the Road Transport Yearbook (2011-12) issued by the Transport Research Wing, Ministry Of Road Transport and Highways, Government Of India. The yearbook includes a table with the total number of registered vehicles (in different categories of vehicle – two-wheelers, cars, buses, goods vehicles, others) for every year. The number of households is from the census years, with simple decadal growth applied annually between census years. I have not yet found the detailed data that will let me refine this finding between urban and rural populations.

This is what the chart says: in 1992, there were 10 households to a two-wheeler and 48.7 households to a car. Ten years later in 2002 there were 4.8 households to a two-wheeler and 26.2 households to a car. Another ten years later in 2012 there were 2.2 households to a two-wheeler and 11.8 households to a car.

vehicles_2005The implications are several and almost all of them are an alarm signal. Especially for urban areas – where most of the buying of vehicles for households has taken place – the physical space available for the movement of people and goods has increased only marginally, but the number of motorised contrivances (cars, motor-cycles, scooters and more recently stupidly large SUVs and stupidly large and expensive luxury cars) has increased quickly. Naturally this ‘growth’ of wheeled metal has choked our city wards.

But there are other implications. One is the very idea of individual mobility in and through a town or city. The connection – foolishly maintained by one government after another, and foolishly defended by macro-economists and industrial planners – between the automobile industry and gross domestic product (GDP) has crippled common sense.

vehicles_1995More motorised conveyance per household also means more fuel demanded per household, and more fuel (and money) wasted because households are taught (by the auto industry with the encouragement of the foolish cohorts I mentioned earlier) that they are entitled to wasteful personal mobility. Over 20 years, the number of cars per household has increased 4.1 times but the number of buses per household has increased only 2.8 times. That is embarrassing proof of our un-ecological and climate unfriendly new habits.

In 2012, there were 1.67 million buses (of all kinds and configurations), there were 7.65 million goods vehicles (to move all those appliances demanded by households, food crops, fertiliser, retail food, etc), 13.16 million other vehicles (which as the ministry says “include tractors trailers, three-wheelers (passenger vehicles)/LMV and other miscellaneous vehicles which are not classified separately”), 21.56 million cars (including jeeps and taxis), and 115.41 million two-wheelers. There are far too many of some kinds and not enough of others. More than 20 years after ‘liberalisation’ began, India’s household mobility is crawling along in first gear for having made too many wrong choices.

– Rahul Goswami

Filed Under: Blogs, Latest Tagged With: automobiles, cars, commuter, economy, energy, fuel, GDP, India, motorcycle, road transport, scooter, two-wheelers, urban mobility, vehicles

Climate, Bharat and junk food

January 28, 2015 by Climate portal editor Leave a Comment

RG_ICP_20150128

We are being misinformed and poorly entertained. There is a great big complex apparatus that tells us, as it has done for most of the last 20 years, that climate change is about science and observation, about technology and finance. This is the international apparatus. Then there is the national bedlam, comprising government, NGOs, think-tanks, research institutes and academia, industry and business, capital markets and finance. The national bedlam on climate change contains many views, some of which are directly related to the international apparatus. Our government, usually in the form of utterances by the Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change, attempts to connect economics to everything else it thinks is important, and present the resulting mess as our climate change policy, which only provokes more bedlam.

Such is the state of affairs in India concerning climate change. Industry and finance, whatever their motivations (profit, market, subsidies, friendly politicians, and so on), are fairly consistent in what they say they want. NGOs and think-tanks – most of which function as localised versions of the international apparatus – are responsible for an outsized share of the bedlam, for they must not only protect the interests of their principals (usually in the West) but at the same time be seen to be informed, authoritative and influential at home. Ordinarily, this renders them schizophrenic, but the hullabaloo surrounding climate change in India is so loud, no-one notices the schizophrenia of the NGOs and think-tanks. Media – that is to say, vapid but noisy television and dull but verbose print commentators – sides with one group or another depending on who’s paying for the junkets.

The punctuations in this long-running and episodic climate change opera that we witness in India are the annual international gatherings, and the erratic policy pronouncements by the central government. For most people, struggling with food price inflation, with urban living environments choked by particulate matter, hounded by creditors and surrounded by useless gadgetry, climate change is a non-subject. And so the middle class stays out of the bedlam, for it is too busy negotiating the storied ‘growth’ of India or breathlessly seeking to profit from it in as many ways as there are flavours of potato chips. Who is left from the 1.275 billion Bharat-vaasis who can cast an appraising eye on the bit players and techno-buskers, and who can judge for themselves the consequences of their actions? We don’t know. And it is such not knowing that balances, with a taut silence, the bedlam of the posturing think-tanks, the technology fetishists, the grasping NGOs, the carbon merchants and their political cronies.

It has helped us not at all to be served, every other week or so, the bland intellectual regurgitations of India’s talking climate heads. It has helped us not at all to be preached at (faithfully reported, accompanied by appropriate editorial cant) by the United Nations whose agency, the UNFCCC, has fostered 20 years of expensive gatherings designed to deceive thinking folk. It has helped us not at all to have to correct, time and again, a government that does nothing about capitalism’s operatives who consistently attack and dismantle efforts to protect our people from environmentally destructive activities. It has helped us not at all to have dealt out to us, from one ruling coalition to the next, from a fattened ‘empowered group of ministers’ to a PM’s Council that prefers fiat, missions and programmes that speak ‘renewable’ but which refuse stubbornly to talk consumption.

Climate change and Bharat is about none of this and it is about all of this in relation to our behaviour. Ours is the land of air-conditioned youth devouring cup noodles while gesturing with greasy fingers across smartphone screens. It is not the land where their grand-parents tilled fields, tended orchards, walked on pilgrimages and lit lanterns in simple dwellings. But this is now, and here, in urban Coimbatore and Cuttack as much as in rural Darbhanga and Dharwad, the reckoning of the effect of our 1.275 on climate has to do with the buying of cars (bigger and two per family) and the widening of roads.

It has to do with the building of housing ‘complexes’ (modern amenities and 24×7 power, but naturally), the contrived convenience factor of retail food markets whose demands deepen the monoculturing of our land mosaics, once so very diverse with coarse cereals, the myth-making of jobs and employment by cramming vast buildings with directionless migrant youth, and attaching to them (costs calculated by the second) the electronic machinery that makes online retail possible, the imagery of the flick of the switch or click of a button delivering goods and services as though from the horn of plenty, the vacuous promises of imminent superpowerdom and a techno-utopia set to the beat of Bollywood lyrics. We have indeed been misinformed.

– Rahul Goswami

Filed Under: Blogs Tagged With: automobiles, Climate Change, consumption, economy, electronics, employment, environment, GDP, India, jobs, migration, online retail, policy, technology, UNFCCC, youth

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