The Indian summer monsoon in 2016 for the months of June to September will be normal to above normal in almost all the meteorological sub-divisions.
This is our reading of the seasonal climatic predictions provided by five different sources, amongst them the India Meteorological Department (IMD), which themselves are based on ensembles of forecasts.
Our outlook for the June to September 2016 period is based on an initial study of the three-monthly and seasonal predictions which are in the public domain, from the following agencies:
A mapping of the forecast by one predictive climate model, for the May to July period. Source: NOAA/NCEP
The Climate Prediction and Monitoring Group of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India; the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) by the Climate Prediction Center of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA; regionalised Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center which are based on models of the NOAA and NASA; and the Meteorological ‘Met’ Office of Britain which is a World Meteorological Organisation climate research centre.
Combining the indications from this early set of forecasts we see that when typical monsoon conditions have set in over southern and peninsular India, the June and July rainfall patterns should be normal for June with an increase in average rainfall for July (in the southern peninsula, the west coast, north-eastern states and the north India mountainous states). The models currently also point to the August and September period recording above normal rainfall over most of India, and normal rainfall in central India.
The climatic prediction models whose forecasting products we have examined make their predictions for 90-day periods (such as May, June and July together) based on conditions observed and calculated for a given month (January, February and March so far). We will consolidate and expand the scope of this initial prognosis – which is of a normal to above normal monsoon – as these forecasts are updated.
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