climate change

WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE? Have you noticed too?
The climate is changing, our seasons are more irregular, and somehow, floods, droughts and hurricanes are becoming all the more common.

Our climate is changing, and the main reason is human activities that result in heat-trapping gases being pumped into the atmosphere.

As we burn more and more fossil fuels, which we do when we drive cars, use concrete to construct towering buildings, use thermal powered electricity or fly in planes, we emit more and more of these heat-trapping gases. Another major cause for our changing climate is land use change such as deforestation, most severe in Indonesia and Brazil, countries with some of the largest remaining stands of tropical rainforest. More…

An overwhelming body of scientific evidence (1), which is difficult to ignore any more, indicates that the Earth’s climate is changing, that our planet is getting hotter, and that the situation is more serious than previously assessed. More…

Never before has the world at large confronted such a complex and far-reaching crisis – therefore, global collective action is of utmost importance. More…

Do you feel overwhelmed? Do you think the problem is so huge that your contribution as an individual will make little difference?

Is there a problem?
Yes. Compelling scientific evidence tells us that there is.

Since the industrial period (mid 1800’s), the concentration of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping or ‘greenhouse’ gases in the atmosphere has increased. Carbon dioxide levels have risen by almost 35% and methane levels have nearly doubled (from 1). From a fairly constant 280 parts per million (ppm) of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 1750 to 430 ppm CO2e in 2005 and still rising, we have reached a stage where we have far exceeded the natural range of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere over the last 65,000 years (2).

These seemingly small increases have a dramatic effect on climate and weather, ecosystems and river flow.

Parallel to the increase in greenhouse gas levels, global temperatures over the past 30 years have steadily increased by 0.2 degrees C each decade. In effect, there has already been a near 1 degree C rise in global average temperatures since around 1900 (2).

Experts believe that a 2 degrees C of warming represents a tipping point – beyond which far more serious impacts than damage to coral reefs and agricultural systems can be expected.

Measurements from 1850 show:

• The global average air and ocean temperatures have increased
• There is widespread melting of snow and ice
• Rising global average sea level

Source: IPCC report 2007

Heating effects are strongly visible in the melting of snow, ice, glaciers and permafrost, rising global mean sea levels and extreme weather.

These images, taken by NASA satellites in 1979 and in 2005, show the minimum concentration of Arctic sea ice in both these years. In 2005, the extent of sea ice dropped to the lowest extent in recorded satellite history – 2.05 million sq. miles (5).

Source: NASA

‘The warming of the climate system is unequivocal’ – IPCC report 2007

All scientific evidence gathered indicates a strong likelihood that unabated and continued emissions will only mean that the world will experience a radical transformation of its climate (Stern Review). If we continue to emit greenhouse gases at the current rate, average global temperatures could rise by 2 to 3 degrees C within the next fifty years.

What will climate change do?
Irrespective of CO2 being released in India or Siberia, the effects are felt all over the world. In effect, climate change is a global problem that will affect every one of us. Changes in our climate system threatens the basic requirements of people around the world – access to food, water, use of land and issues of health and environment (1).

• Melting glaciers: including India’s ‘water towers’ – the Himalayan glaciers – pose the very serious threat of our perennial rivers – the Sapta Sindhu – drying up.
• Ocean acidification – affecting marine ecosystems and fish stocks
• Declining crop yields in the face of rising populations
• Rising sea levels – millions of ‘environmental refugees’, salt water invasion of fertile agricultural soil.

Risks and impacts
Even if all emissions stopped today, the time lag necessary for climate stabilization would mean global temperatures would continue to rise for the next 30 to 50 years. Hence, over the next few decades, we face unavoidable economic costs. We also face several economic and climatic impacts, as well as risks.

Where does India stand?
India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world, growing at an almost breakneck pace, guzzling coal, gas and oil in large quantities (4) while doing so. We are also the fifth largest emitter of GHG’s in the world. With nearly a quarter of our billion plus population below the poverty line, the government is pursuing an ambitious development agenda modeled on the West.

Apart from being a major contributor to the problem in the future, India as a developing country, cannot afford to take as many risks and economic backlashes as industrialized nations can.

We would face:

• Erratic monsoon patterns – a serious threat to rainfed agriculture, peninsular rivers and power supply
• Rising sea levels – along one of the longest and densely populated coastlines in the world, a 1-metre rise in sea levels could displace millions
• More floods and drought – exacerbating water shortages and declines in crop yield
• Receding Himalayan glaciers

How can we solve climate change?
Immediate action is of essence. To prevent the planet from warming by more than 2 degrees C, concentrations of GHG’s must not exceed 450 ppm of CO2 equivalent.

This might seem a huge task, but the good news is that solutions that will take us towards a low carbon future already exist (3).

• Global collective action that emphasizes necessary and urgent action
• International agreements, legally binding and time-bound targets to regulate and stabilize emissions
• Policy reform that can catalyse action for climate change
• Emission reduction in every economic and political sector.

Action is essential. But action now is more desirable, and more cost effective than action in the future (2).

References

1. IPCC
2. Stern Review
3. Design to Win
4. Imagining India
5. http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/arcticice_decline.html
6. Earth Policy Insitute
7. International Energy Agency